Florida County by County - Early Indications Favor Obama

Obama is running ahead of his standing in 2008 in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach County.  We won't really understand turnout until we sell all the results, but running at higher margins in those counties than 2008 would make winning the state for Mitt Romney very difficult, unless he makes huge gains in the I-4 corridor.

First Call in a Competitive Senate Race

Bill Nelson has won re-election in Florida, the first of our competitive races that has been called.  This was a competitive race but was the least competitive of the close races.  With the safe seats, this gets Democrats to 46 working seats (assuming Angus King caucuses with the Democrats) and their magic number (including the Vice Presidency) is 5 to retain their majority.

Still Only Safe Calls

All the usual suspects are in each column.  We have no calls at this point in any of the swing states and I frankly don't expect any before about 10 PM.

I don't see anything in the early returns from any of the swing states that would sway me to believe that we have a significantly different election picture from what I projected last night.

Intrade remains stuck around 70%/30%.

West Virginia Goes to Romney, Obama Outperforming in Early Counties in Florida

Another easy call in West Virginia.  His Appalachia firewall is secure.

President Obama is outperforming my expectations in the early counties in Florida, running only a point or two behind his 2008 performance.  A lot of the larger counties are not yet reporting, so it's early to make a call.

Exit polls in the 7:30 states:
Ohio - Obama 51-49%
North Carolina - 49%-49%

North Carolina is a shocker.  It almost seems like it has to be wrong versus all the recent pre-election polling.   If Barack Obama wins North Carolina, it could be a huge night for him.  Ohio is about in line with expectations.

Indiana Flips Red, As Expected, Georgia and South Carolina Seem Sure to Follow

No surprises in the first 3 state calls.  Indiana and Kentucky to Romney and Vermont to Obama.

I'm sure in the end, South Carolina and Georgia seem extremely likely to go in the red column as well.

Intrade odds have been relatively stable (Obama 71%, Romney 29% as of this moment.)

Early returns in Florida point to a very close race with Obama carrying the counties he carried 2008 but by somewhat narrower margins, as you would expect in a close race.  Many of the Romney counties have not yet come in.

Making the Easy Calls at 7:01

Vermont for Obama
Kentucky for Romney

No surprises.

Everyone is being conservative on Georgia, South Carolina and Indiana.  Those should go Romney

Exit poll data on closed states:
Indiana - 55%-43% Romney
Virginia - 49%-49%

Again, no surprise.  I had projected Romney to comfortably carry Indiana and Virginia to be the closest state in the nation.

Romney Down by 5% In Internal Polling?

CNN reports that in the last poll taken by Mitt Romney's campaign, he trailed Barack Obama by 5% in the swing state of Ohio, a stronger showing for Obama than my current projection.

This would explain the late-game shift into Pennsylvania - it may have appeared more gettable.

Whether their view (and my projection of a closer race in Pennsylvania than Ohio) actually plays out remains to be seen.