Thursday, June 4, 2009

Presidential Popularity Strong but Down Slightly, A Promise-Keeping Update, Gay Marriage in New Hampshire

Obama Approval -- Strong, But Weakest Yet
I don't want to oversell short-term trends, but I would be remiss if I didn't note that President Obama's aggregate approve-disapprove of 26.0% is the lowest of his Presidency to date. Now, as I've often noted, it is typical of new President's for their approval rating to decline somewhat over their first 100 days before it settles in at a more reasonable level. But in President Obama's case, there appears to be a slow erosion effect happening. We are in Day 136 of his Presidency, about a month past when the new President-euphoria typicall wears off and he is still declining, albeit slowly. His numbers are still very strong, so he may well yet stabilize at a good level of support, but it is worth watching.

Looking at the by month averages, we see that President Obama finished the month of May down from April (albeit just slightly) and early in June is tracking below May. His month-on-month declines are as follows:
Jan to Feb: -6.8%
Feb to Mar: -8.4%
Mar to Apr: -2.3%
Apr to May: -0.6%
May to Jun: -2.4%
* Month to date, only 3 days of data

In terms of polling methodology here is the current breakdown:
Adult Americans: +33%
Registered Voters: +28%
Likely Voters: +10%

At +10% with likely voters, the election would look a lot like 2008 as Obama would carry his 2008 states plus Montana.

Obama Promise-Keeping
The latest numbers from show President Obama keeping 30 campaign promises, 8 compromises (promises partially kept) and 6 promises broken. Based on the rating system I set-up (where kept promises count as 1 point, partially kept promises half a point), Obama gets a 77% rating, far ahead of our 50% benchmark, and a grade of A-.

It is worth noting, however, that President Obama made 514 document promises, so we have only dealt with 8.6% of them. On the plus side, we are only 9.3% of the way through his first term, so we are more or less on pace.

New Hampshire Becomes the Sixth
New Hampshire this week became the sixth state in the country (following Maine, Connecticut, Massachussetts, Iowa and Vermont) to legalize gay marriage and the third to do so by legislative act. The formerly conservative stronghold is now a cutting-edge social policy trend-setter.

We'll see if a bill makes it through the State Senate in New York (it has passed the house and Gov. David Patterson (D) is a strong supporter) -- it appears at this point that the votes aren't there, but that it is relatively close.

We'll also keep tabs on the effort to put a ballot initiative on in Maine to reverse the law legalizing gay marriage there and the efforts to get a ballot initiative back on the ballot in California in 2010 to repeal Prop 8 and re-legalize gay marriage.

If you like this site, please tell your friends and visit often.

No comments: