Thursday, April 15, 2010

The Latest News on 2010

Tommy Thompson is out in Wisconsin, likely giving a big edge back to the DEMs to retain that seat. Other than that, not a lot of other good news for the DEMs. Here are the latest updates.

Rating Changes
Wisconsin - with Thompson out of the race, there is no GOP candidate that is polling close to incumbent Russ Feingold. This races moves from a Toss-Up to a Likely Democratic Hold.

Kentucky - Grayson is up 20 points in the latest poll. This one looks out of reach for the DEMs for now, in spite of the taint of Jim Bunning on the seat. Moves from Lean GOP Hold to Likely GOP Hold.

New Hampshire - a close call here, but with Ayotte up by 7, 8 and 15 in the latest three polls, with the 15 point spread being the most recent, it feels decisive enough to move from Lean GOP Hold to Likely GOP Hold.

Arizona - I had been expecting to move this one right for some time, but McCain had been polling in a very lackluster fashion through the winter. The latest poll shows him up by 19 points on Glassman. Moves from Lean GOP Hold to Likely GOP Hold.

Ohio - back in play - Fisher leads by 4% in 2 of the last 3 polls, Brunner by 5% in the other. The race switches from Lean GOP Hold to Toss-Up.

New Polls, No Ratings Change
Arkansas - this may move right soon, but not quite yet. The latest Rasmussen Poll shows Blanche Lincoln down by as much as 15 points against potential GOP challengers, but other polls show the race in the mid-to-high single digits. It stays a Lean GOP Pick-Up...for now.

Colorado - Bennett is trailing by 4 to 5 points against potential GOP challengers in 3 new polls. Still a Lean GOP Pick-Up.

Pennsylvania - Toomey is up 5 to 8 points in a new batch of polls. Stays a Lean GOP Pick-Up.

Nevada - another one that has been consistently straddling the lean/likely edge. Harry Reid is down by 7 to 15 points in the latest set of polling. I'll leave it a Likely GOP Pick-Up for now, but it could go left if there are some more single digit polls.

Washington - Patty Murray leads by only 2 to 8 points against GOP comers in a Rasmussen poll. If one additional poll confirms these numbers, I will move the rating right, but for now it stays a Likely DEM Hold.

Overall Senate Ratings
Projected Democratic Holds (9)
Safe Holds (4)
Connecticut, Maryland, New York (Schumer), Vermont

Likely Holds (4)
Washington, Hawaii, Oregon, Wisconsin

Lean Hold (1)

Potential Democratic Pick-Ups (1)

Toss-Ups (1)

Potential GOP Pick-Ups (9)
Safe GOP Pick-UP (1)
North Dakota

Likely GOP Pick-Up (1)

Lean GOP Pick-Up (5)
Arkansas, Delaware, Indiana, Colorado, Pennsylvania

Toss-Ups - DEM Controlled (2)
Illinois, New York (Gillebrand)

Projected GOP Holds (17)
Safe Holds (8)
Louisiana, Iowa, South Dakota, Alabama, Idaho, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Utah

Likely Holds (8)
New Hampshire, Kentucky, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Alaska, Kansas, Florida

Lean Holds (1)

Net Projection: GOP Pick-Up of 6 to 9 Seats
(10 seats needed for control of the Senate)

In The House...
Our average of averages shows generic polling for the GOP is holding steady at +3.9%. This would project:

GOP Pick-Up of 44 Seats

So by my count, the GOP would narrowly take the House but narrowly fail to take the Senate if the election were held today.

While there is week-to-week variation, it is undoubtedly looking bad for the Democrats in November. They are hoping on the economic recovery to boost their prospects. The economy HAS improved greatly, as we have documented extensively in this space. But it doesn't matter until employment improves and people THINK the economy is better for THEM. Just ask George Herbert-Walker Bush how much an early-stage recovery helps the incumbent party's prospects.

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