Is Cain Imploding On Purpose?, The Big Map: Electoral College 2012

Could You Have Scripted This?
I don't know if Herman Cain has ever sexually harassed anyone.  I'm not even sure exactly what the former head of the National Restaurant Association is accused of.  Sexual harassment is a very broad charge that can mean a lot of things to a lot of people.  Is Cain accused of distasteful jokes or outright blackmail?  Where things he said or did unwise or illegal?  Nothing is clear.

Many years later, people still have arguments about Clarence Thomas and the veracity of Anita Hill's allegations.  But Anita came forward.  She faced the man she was accusing.  She was specific in her charges, faced cross-examination and made her case. The Thomas confirmation hearings may not have been any fun to the parties involved, but they had a fundamental sense of fairness.

Herman Cain's accusers have not stepped forward.  We know no specifics of the allegations against him.  There is no evidence offered, no cross examination.  It is a charge that, for lack of some kind of evidence, or at least a live witness or two, probably shouldn't bear on our decision-making in the Presidential election.

Except that we live in the real world.  In the real world, in a Republican primary, being charged with sexual harassment could make you look very beatable, especially by a formidable machine like the Obama campaign.  And in the real world, you aren't strictly innocent until proven guilty, once a charge has been made, however thin the evidence, you have to respond.

And except for that fact that Herman Cain seems to be doing everything in his power to inflict maximum damage on his campaign from this charge.  He has bungled things at every turn.  He has not been forthcoming with the facts (that he was accused at one point and that the charges were settled.)  He has claimed memory lapses (would you FORGET having settled a law suit about sexual harassment?)  He has given contradictory accounts.  It is vintage Herman Cain (see abortion, see border fences, etc.), except that none of this is cute or endearing when you are charged with something serious.

It makes me wonder if Cain is looking for a way out.  He was supposed to make a few points, land a few speaking gigs and have the ear of the American people for a time.  In his wildest dreams, maybe he'd land a gig at Fox News.  He wasn't supposed to WIN.  I don't think Cain want to be President, perhaps never did.  Maybe this is his way out.

Will all of this cause the troops to rally around Romney?  Probably not -- the Tea Party just can't stand the guy and some mainstream Republicans are starting to find his constant flip-flopping annoying at best and revealing of a lack of character at worst.  But Romney is still what they are going to get.  Perry continues to look less and less attractive the more he talks.  There has been talk of a "Newt rally" but it is stalled around 12% and he comes with all kinds of baggage and not much likability.  Ron Paul is way outside the GOP mainstream.  The other candidates are struggling to stay even in the low single digits.  It's going to be Mitt.  Don't say I didn't tell you so.

The Big Map
If it is Romney, then we have an interesting race on our hands.  National polling is close, but the state-by-state battles are fascinating.  If it's anyone other than Romney, just color the grey states blue right now.  But in Romney vs. Obama, it is a broad battleground, mostly among states that Obama won in 2008.

The map below was created with the help of 270towin.com, which is a great site that has a lot of electoral college information on it.

So, we can see that there are 190 electoral votes at this point that are reasonably firmly in the Obama column and 169 that are reasonably firmly in the Romney column with 179 electoral votes up for grabs.  Note that all the swing states listed are states Obama carried in his victory in 2008, except for Arizona, which is looking closer this time since one John McCain is not on the ballot.

Let's examine these swing states one-by-one.  Note that my "advantage" is often the current leader in the polls, but not always, as I consider history and trend as well.

Florida - 29 Electoral Votes
Voting History: Last 5 elections - 2 Democratic, 3 GOP (voted for Bush in '92, winners otherwise)
Vote Versus National Vote in 2008: +4.4% Republican
Trending: Republican (slightly)
Current polling: Pick 'Em
Advantage: Romney, but weakly

Pennsylvaina - 20 Electoral Votes
Voting History: Last 5 elections Democratic (voted for Gore, Kerry and 3 winners)
Vote Versus National Vote in 2008: +2.5% Democratic
Trending: Republican (slightly)
Current polling: Obama up by an average of +5%
Advantage: Obama, fairly strongly

Ohio - 18 Electoral Votes
Voting History: Last 5 elections - 3 Democratic, 2 GOP (voted for winner every time)
Vote Versus National Vote in 2008: +2.6% Republican
Trending: Republican (slightly)
Current polling: Obama up by an average of +4%

Advantage: Obama, but weakly

Michigan - 16 Electoral Votes
Voting History: Last 5 elections Democratic (voted for Gore, Kerry and 3 winners)
Vote Versus National Vote in 2008: +9.3% Democratic
Trending: Democratic (strongly)
Current polling: Obama up by an average of +6%
Advantage: Obama, strongly

North Carolina - 15 Electoral Votes
Voting History: Last 5 elections - 4 Republicans, 1 Democrat (voted for Bush in '92, Dole and 3 winners)
Vote Versus National Vote in 2008: +6.9% Republican
Trending: Democratic (moderately)
Current Polling: Romney up by an average of +1%
Advantage: Romney, but weakly

Virginia - 13 Electoral Votes
Voting History: Last 5 elections - 4 Republicans, 1 Democrat (voted for Bush in '92, Dole and 3 winners)
Vote Versus National Vote in 2008: +0.9% Republican
Trending: Democratic (strongly)
Current Polling: Romney by average of +2%
Advantage: Romney, but weakly

Indiana - 11 Electoral Votes
Voting History: Last 5 elections - 4 Republicans, 1 Democrat (voted for Bush in '92, Dole and 3 winners)
Vote Versus National Vote in 2008: +6.2% Republican
Trending: Democratic (strongly)
Current Polling: None available

Advantage: Romney, moderately

Arizona - 11 Electoral Votes
Voting History: Last 5 elections - 4 Republicans, 1 Democrat (voted for Bush in '92, McCain and 3 winners)
Vote Versus National Vote in 2008: +15.7% Republican
Trending: Unclear due to McCain's presence on 2008 ticket
Current Polling: Obama by an average of 5%

Advantage: Romney, but weakly

Wisconsin - 10 Electoral Votes
Voting History: Last 5 elections - 5 Democrats (voted for Gore, Kerry and 3 winners)
Vote Versus National Vote in 2008: +6.7% Democratic
Trending: Democratic (moderately)
Current Polling: Obama by an average of 6%

Advantage: Obama, moderately

Minnesota - 10 Electoral Votes
Voting History: Last 5 elections - 5 Democrats (voted for Gore, Kerry and 3 winners)
Vote Versus National Vote in 2008: +3.0% Democratic
Trending: Republican (moderately)
Current Polling: None available

Advantage: Obama, but weakly

Colorado - 9 Electoral Votes
Voting History: Last 5 elections - 2 Democrats, 3 Republicans (voted for Dole in '96 and 4 winners)
Vote Versus National Vote in 2008: +1.7% Democratic
Trending: Democratic (moderately)
Current Polling: None available

Advantage: Obama, but weakly

Iowa - 6 Electoral Votes
Voting History: Last 5 elections - 4 Democrats, 1 Republican (voted for Gore and 4 winners)
Vote Versus National Vote in 2008: +2.3% Democratic
Trending: Flat
Current Polling: Obama by an average of 3%

Advantage: Obama, but weakly

Nevada - 6 Electoral Votes
Voting History: 3 Democrats, 2 Republicans (voted for winner every time)
Vote Versus National Vote in 2008: +5.3% Democratic
Trending: Democratic (moderately)
Current Polling: Pick 'Em

Advantage: Obama, but weakly

New Mexico - 5 Electoral Votes
Voting History: 4 Democrats, 1 Republican (voted for Gore and 4 winners)
Vote Versus National Vote in 2008: +7.9% Democratic
Trending: Democratic (moderately)
Current Polling: None available

Advantage: Obama, but weakly

All of this would give Obama, very hypothetically a win in the electoral college of 290-248.


If you flip all the "weak" Obama states to Romney, Romney wins 293-245.


If you flip all the "weak" Romney states to Obama, Obama wins 358-180.


Bear in mind, it is WAY early...Romney hasn't even competed in his first primary as of yet.  And there are signs out there that there may be swing states in New England that I'm not even considering - New Hampshire could be in play as the most moderate state near where Romney is from, so theoretically could be other states in the region.  These changes could change the whole composition of the map.


But, very early on, I think we can say that we already have a horse race.  Unless the GOP nominates someone else.


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