It's Been a Bad, Bad Month for Obama
Republicans aren't stupid. Well, most of the time, at least. Have you noticed how the noise over Benghazi has quieted down? Sure, there are still Republicans repeating the talking points, but they are by and large beginning to realize what I have been saying for weeks - there is no real scandal there and the American people don't particularly care.
On the IRS scandal, which I believe to be real, the President is looking more and more out-of-control. He has claimed that he found out about the scandal from the press accounts, in spite of evidence that higher-ups in the Obama administration knew of the issue last year. The untenable nature of the President's position on this issue is clear to me - my greatest fear is not that he is lying and knew about the issue - my greatest fear is that he is telling the truth and that he is not in control of his administration. Either way, Democrats trying to defend the scandal as not that big a deal should exercise some caution - poo-pooing the use of the IRS to cause problems for political opponents is tantamount to walking away from being the party of civil liberties.
The most chilling issue of all, in my opinion, is the investigation of reporters over leaks of classified information. While I call this an issue and not a scandal, as it does not appear that there were any laws broken and the investigations were all conducted within the bounds of the law as it is understood, applying legal pressure to reporters for doing nothing other than listening to sources and reporting what they say is chilling. Let me be fair - there are definitely times where national security concerns compel the government to go after those who work in government and leak classified information. That is fair game. But investigating reporters and seizing their records and e-mail for doing nothing more than reporting what is leaked to them is essentially criminalizing journalism. There is good reason that all of the press, liberal, conservative and moderate are united against the Obama administration is simple - regardless of your political persuasion, if you are reporter, you don't like to see Freedom of the Press trampled upon.
The common thread between the IRS and AP/Fox News events is a disrespect for constitutional liberties - Freedom of Speech in the first case and Freedom of the Press in the second. President Obama has a horribly weak record on civil liberties - he has extended the Patriot Act, used drone strikes on US Citizens, kept GITMO open (in spite of his half-hearted protestations that Congress has stopped him from closing it, he hasn't even released prisoners that have been cleared) and now used the heavy hand of the government to attempt to intimidate political opponents and journalists.
The man who promised the most open, transparent administration ever and to change the way that Washington did business is a long way from living up to his promises.
On Immigration and Internet Taxes
Millions of people ignore a clearly written law in the United States. Everyone is in alignment that there needs to be reform of the law, but some protest that those who broke the law in the past shouldn't be given a pass or rewarded for their illegal activities.
Am I talking about immigration reform? No, I'm talking about order stuff from amazon.com.
Sales tax laws are clear in every state that has a sales tax (New Hampshire and Delaware residents, you are off the hook) - if you order from amazon.com, you must submit the sales tax that is owed on the out of state purchase to your local state government. You thought internet sales were tax-free? Wrong. The law only states that in states where it doesn't have a physical presence that Amazon itself does not have to collect the tax on behalf of the state government. You still owe it. So if you are among the millions who have ordered from Amazon and not sent in your tax payment, you are a criminal. You broke the law. Should we come and throw you in jail for your crimes?
I explain all of this to debunk the notion of illegal immigrants as criminals. Yes, in the technical sense, that word is true - entering the US illegally is a crime and a criminal, by definition is someone who commits a crime. But that definition applies equally well to Amazon.com customers. In fact, the reasons for breaking immigration laws are typically a lot more noble than the reasons for breaking our tax laws. In the case of immigration, most illegal immigrants are breaking the law to provide food and shelter for their families. in the case of Amazon, most people are breaking the law because they are too lazy or too cheap to pay an extra 5 or 6% on their purchase.
So let's get over this righteous indignation about illegal immigration and work on solving the problem. And the solution has to involve a legal, dignified path for the 11 million already here without their papers. Let's hope that conservative leaders like Marco Rubio, who has seen the light on this issue can convince enough Republicans to join him to make this effort happen - an effort that has the support of not just liberals and Democrats but Republicans like George W. Bush and John McCain.
It is time to bring people out of the shadows.
Showing posts with label Marco Rubio. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Marco Rubio. Show all posts
Saturday, June 1, 2013
Sunday, August 5, 2012
A Bad Week for Romney, Does He Need a Game Change?
Obama Lead Widens
Days Until the Election: 93
Projected Popular Vote Total: Obama +3.8% (+3.5% from last week)
Projected Electoral Vote Total: Obama 332, Romney 206 (unchanged from last week)
The last time that I actually flipped a state on my electoral vote projection was June 30th. For a race that is supposed to be neck-and-neck and back-and-forth, that is pretty remarkable...5+ weeks of essentially the same map. And the map is not so kind to Mitt Romney - it shows a pretty resounding victory for President Obama. Not quite the 365 to 173 whacking that he gave to John McCain in 2008, but a large enough cushion that if the election were being held today, Obama advisers wouldn't be worried about a state here or there.
No states flip this week either, but the trend is decidedly for the President over the course of the past week. He picks up 3.5% in the average of national polls and moves up the strength of several states. For the first time in a long time, he now has 271 electoral votes in either the "safe", "strong" or "likely" category for him. This is big because it means that the President could lose every single close state - North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada, and still win the electoral college 271 - 267.
The reason for this, of course, is the state of Ohio, which now sits in the Likely Obama category. It is virtually impossible for a Republican to win without Ohio. No Republican has ever won the Presidency without winning Ohio, going all the way back to the founding of the party in 1856. Romney HAS to win there to open up the map to possible paths to 270 for him. If he loses in Ohio, as the present polling would indicate, it's game over early on.
Romney's bad week has been the result of several things. His first foreign trip was more or less a disaster as he offended the Brits by saying they might not be prepared for the election, offended Muslims across the world by saying that Palestinian poverty was the result of an inferior culture (no, that isn't taken out of context) and his campaign advisers offended the Polish by cursing at reporters during a trip to a sacred burial site. In short, Romney looked not ready for prime-time on the world stage, and not appearing Presidential is an important defect for a challenger.
Also starting to move the polls is massive spending by the Obama campaign. Ironically, after caving into the congressional Republicans to extend the Bush tax cuts for all incomes this year, Obama is campaigning hard on NOT extending the cuts again. And it seems to be working. You may call it cheap class warfare (and I have at times), but the theme of "Romney is an out-of-touch rich guy" combined with "the rich need to pay their fair share" and "Romney is a repeat of the Bush policies" are having a meaningful impact on the race.
Finally, the economic news has been relatively good. It certainly hasn't been the V recovery that I had hoped for (and erroneously predicted) 3 years ago, but the stock market is double what it was then and we had another month of significant, although not stellar job growth.
Put it all together and Romney has some work to do after the Olympics to regain a solid footing in the race. Things are certainly not insurmountable for him at this stage - after all a 3.8% lead can evaporate in a few days if the right events happen, but he has to be careful not to let this race get too far away from him given the strength of the coffers and strategy of the Obama campaign.
Game Changing or Safe VP Pick?
Romney's inability so far to close the gap has many among the GOP faithful calling for a bolder pick for his VP. Rob Portman and Tim Pawlenty are the two heavy favorites for the nod and both represent very safe picks - unexciting but unoffensive soldiers who possess solid, but not radical, conservative credentials and would widely be seen as qualified to be President on day one.
The call is for a pick like Marco Rubio or Paul Ryan, Rubio for his youth and the energy of support for him from the Tea Party, Ryan for his conservative budget credibility, something which could be a big help for Romney, who has struggled to articulate any kind of cohesive economic and budget philosophy.
My bet is still on the safe picks and probably rightly so. I've made this point before, but it bears repeating - I cannot think of a single winning Presidential Candidate who won because of his VP pick. VP picks generally can only hurt not help, so the first principle should be to do no harm.
Pawlenty seems like the best choice of the bunch. Outside the beltway, conservative but mainstream, has run things and therefore buttresses the Romney argument of executive experience. And he is not at all gaffe-prone. But it's Romney's call, obviously, and how and what he decides will be our first big reveal into how he might govern.
If you like this site tell your friends.
Days Until the Election: 93
Projected Popular Vote Total: Obama +3.8% (+3.5% from last week)
Projected Electoral Vote Total: Obama 332, Romney 206 (unchanged from last week)
The last time that I actually flipped a state on my electoral vote projection was June 30th. For a race that is supposed to be neck-and-neck and back-and-forth, that is pretty remarkable...5+ weeks of essentially the same map. And the map is not so kind to Mitt Romney - it shows a pretty resounding victory for President Obama. Not quite the 365 to 173 whacking that he gave to John McCain in 2008, but a large enough cushion that if the election were being held today, Obama advisers wouldn't be worried about a state here or there.
No states flip this week either, but the trend is decidedly for the President over the course of the past week. He picks up 3.5% in the average of national polls and moves up the strength of several states. For the first time in a long time, he now has 271 electoral votes in either the "safe", "strong" or "likely" category for him. This is big because it means that the President could lose every single close state - North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Ohio, Iowa and Nevada, and still win the electoral college 271 - 267.
The reason for this, of course, is the state of Ohio, which now sits in the Likely Obama category. It is virtually impossible for a Republican to win without Ohio. No Republican has ever won the Presidency without winning Ohio, going all the way back to the founding of the party in 1856. Romney HAS to win there to open up the map to possible paths to 270 for him. If he loses in Ohio, as the present polling would indicate, it's game over early on.
Romney's bad week has been the result of several things. His first foreign trip was more or less a disaster as he offended the Brits by saying they might not be prepared for the election, offended Muslims across the world by saying that Palestinian poverty was the result of an inferior culture (no, that isn't taken out of context) and his campaign advisers offended the Polish by cursing at reporters during a trip to a sacred burial site. In short, Romney looked not ready for prime-time on the world stage, and not appearing Presidential is an important defect for a challenger.
Also starting to move the polls is massive spending by the Obama campaign. Ironically, after caving into the congressional Republicans to extend the Bush tax cuts for all incomes this year, Obama is campaigning hard on NOT extending the cuts again. And it seems to be working. You may call it cheap class warfare (and I have at times), but the theme of "Romney is an out-of-touch rich guy" combined with "the rich need to pay their fair share" and "Romney is a repeat of the Bush policies" are having a meaningful impact on the race.
Finally, the economic news has been relatively good. It certainly hasn't been the V recovery that I had hoped for (and erroneously predicted) 3 years ago, but the stock market is double what it was then and we had another month of significant, although not stellar job growth.
Put it all together and Romney has some work to do after the Olympics to regain a solid footing in the race. Things are certainly not insurmountable for him at this stage - after all a 3.8% lead can evaporate in a few days if the right events happen, but he has to be careful not to let this race get too far away from him given the strength of the coffers and strategy of the Obama campaign.
Game Changing or Safe VP Pick?
Romney's inability so far to close the gap has many among the GOP faithful calling for a bolder pick for his VP. Rob Portman and Tim Pawlenty are the two heavy favorites for the nod and both represent very safe picks - unexciting but unoffensive soldiers who possess solid, but not radical, conservative credentials and would widely be seen as qualified to be President on day one.
The call is for a pick like Marco Rubio or Paul Ryan, Rubio for his youth and the energy of support for him from the Tea Party, Ryan for his conservative budget credibility, something which could be a big help for Romney, who has struggled to articulate any kind of cohesive economic and budget philosophy.
My bet is still on the safe picks and probably rightly so. I've made this point before, but it bears repeating - I cannot think of a single winning Presidential Candidate who won because of his VP pick. VP picks generally can only hurt not help, so the first principle should be to do no harm.
Pawlenty seems like the best choice of the bunch. Outside the beltway, conservative but mainstream, has run things and therefore buttresses the Romney argument of executive experience. And he is not at all gaffe-prone. But it's Romney's call, obviously, and how and what he decides will be our first big reveal into how he might govern.
If you like this site tell your friends.
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