OBAMA EXTENDS HIS LEAD ON THE ELECTORAL MAP TO 349-189, NATIONAL POLLS SOMEWHAT CONFUSING
DAYS UNTIL THE ELECTION: 27 DAYS
Only minor changes to the map. Missouri moves from a tie to an Obama state and remains a key battleground.
My take on the debate and the campaign ahead in a second.
But with heavy polling going on in all the swing states, I've decided to go in depth on all the battleground states to analyze the latest polls. I've included the 2 week spread and the weighted mean of all the polls as well as the weighted mean of polls from national polling firms.
First, a couple of definitional items. When I say "all" the polls, I mean all of the publicly available polls not provided by a party affiliated group. Both the Democrats and Republicans have in-house polling firms such as PPP and Strategic Vision that conduct polls that are publicly released. While in many instances they are similar to other polls, I do not trust these sources as these companies may not release results unfavorable to their candidate.
The national polling firm average includes unaffiliated national organizations such as Gallup, Rasmussen, Survey USA, etc. but EXCLUDES locally conducted polls, which can at times have a less accurate sample.
I weight the polling data based on the sample size rather than using a pure average as polls with larger samples statistically have greater accuracy. Essentially, we are conducting one big poll.
Note: In the case of tracking polls or duplicates from the same firm, I have used only that firm's most RECENT poll.
Note also that the spreads don't align perfectly with the battleground designations. This is again because my methodology also considers historical voting patterns whereas the pure poll data does not. This is because I believe that in general, by election day, states have a tendency to tend towards their historical patterns (as we saw in 2004.) This typically shows up in the polls prior to election day, so as we approach the election, I will be ramping down the weighting of the historical factor. Note that there are no states that are decided differently by either methodology, just the margins are impacted.
Here are the battlegrounds:
Key Battlegrounds
Virginia -- no change
2 Week Polling Spread: From +3% Mccain to +12% Obama (Middle of Spread = +4.5% Obama)
Most Recent Polls: Obama +10%, Obama +12%, Obama +2%
Weighted Mean: Obama +4.5%
Weighted Mean National: Obama + 3.4%
Conclusion: Approximately Obama +4%
Missouri -- stays key but switched from tie to Obama
2 Week Polling Spread: From +2% Mccain to +3% Obama (Middle of Spread = +0.5% Obama)
Most Recent Polls: Obama +3%
Weighted Mean: Obama +0.5%
Weighted Mean National: Obama +1%
Conclusion: Approximately Obama +1%
North Carolina -- no change
2 Week Polling Spread: From +3% Mccain to +3% Obama (Middle of Spread = Dead Even)
Most Recent Polls: Even, Mccain +3%
Weighted Mean (All Polls National): Mccain +0.9%
Conclusion: Approximately Mccain +1%
Serious Battleground
Florida -- no change
2 Week Polling Spread: From +1% Mccain to +8% Obama (Middle of Spread = +3.5% Obama)
Most Recent Polls: Obama +2%, Obama +7%
Weighted Mean: Obama +4.3%
Weighted Mean National: Obama + 4.4%
Conclusion: Approximately Obama +4%
Substantial Battlegrounds None
Somewhat Battlegrounds
Ohio -- demoted from substantial to somewhat battleground
2 Week Polling Spread: From +1% Mccain to +8% Obama (Middle of Spread = +3.5% Obama)
Most Recent Polls: Obama +6%, Mccain +1%, Obama +3%
Weighted Mean: Obama +4.2%
Weighted Mean National: Obama + 2.8%
Conclusion: Approximately Obama +3%
New Hampshire -- demoted from substantial to somewhat battleground
2 Week Polling Spread: From Obama +8% to Obama +13% (Middle of the Spread = +10.5% Obama)
Most Recent Polls: Obama +8%, Obama +13%, Obama +10%
Weighted Mean: Obama +10.7%
Weighted Mean National: Obama +10.1%
Conclusion: Approximately Obama +10%
Colorado -- demoted from substantial to somewhat battleground
2 Week Polling Spread: From Even to Obama +6% (Middle of the Spread = +3.0% Obama)
Most Recent Polls: Even, Obama +6%, Obama +6%
Weighted Mean: Obama +4.2%
Weighted Mean National: Obama +5.3%
Conclusion: Approximately Obama +4%
Nevada -- no change
2 Week Polling Spread: From Mccain +2% to Obama +7% (Middle of the Spread = +2.5% Obama)
Most Recent Polls: Obama +2%,Obama +7%,Obama +4%
Weighted Mean: Obama +3.1%
Weighted Mean National: +2.2%
Conclusion: Approximately Obama +3%
Fringe Battlegrounds
Indiana -- no change
2 Week Polling Spread: From Mccain +5% to Even (Middle of the Spread = +2.5% Mccain)
Most Recent Polls: Mccain +5%
Weighted Mean (all national): Mccain +2.4%
Conclusion: Approximately Mccain +3%
Potential Battlegrounds
Wisconsin
2 Week Polling Spread: From Obama +5% to Obama +10% (Middle of the Spread = +7.5% Obama)
Most Recent Polls: Obama +5%, Obama +10%, Obama +10%
Weighted Mean (All National) = Obama +7.6%
Conclusion: Approximately Obama +8%
Minnesota
2 Week Polling Spread: From Mccain +1% to Obama + 11% (Middle of the Spread = 5.0% Obama)
Most Recent Polls: Obama +14%, Obama +7%
Weighted Mean: Obama +10.5%
Weighted Mean National: Obama +7.2%
Conclusion: Approximately Obama +8%
So, if we look at the states that are closer than 9% in the polls, they rank as follows:
Indiana -- Mccain +3%
North Carolina -- Mccain +1%
Missouri -- Obama +1%
Ohio -- Obama +3%
Nevada -- Obama +3%
Virginia -- Obama +4%
Florida -- Obama +4%
Colorado -- Obama +4%
Wisconsin -- Obama +8%
Minnesota -- Obama +8%
Basically, Mccain must win Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, Nevada, Virginia, Florida AND Colorado to win (plus all his safe states.)
Obama must only win his safe states, hold Minnesota & Wisconsin and win any other 1 state to win.
But....as you can see, if the polls moved 5%, we'd have a totally different race.
Was That a Debate or Did We Watch Paint Dry?
After a week of absolutely pounding Obama on character issues, John Mccain played it safe. It was an uninteresting, unoriginal debate on the part of both candidates (not to mention an awful format.) Obama looked extremely credible and as such won in the public opinion polls. The only conclusion that I can reach is that John Mccain a strategic decision to fight the battle in the trenches and not on the big stage. But this did not help him....and he needs to help himself in the next 27 days.
Divergent Polls
The national polls tell an odd story as I've rarely seen such a large spread in the results. The Gallup tracking poll shows its largest lead of the year for Obama at 12%, whereas the 4 other track polls have margins of 1%, 2%, 4% and 6% respectively. 10 points on large sample tracking polls is a huge spread. What gives?
Of the 4 national polls, Gallup is the only one that is still using registered voters as the polling sample, whereas the other 4 are all now using likely voters. Generally speaking, likely voter methodolgies tend to favor Republicans, since Republicans tend to have higher base turnout (Christian conservatives and senior citizens usually have very high turnout, 18-25ers and African-Americans do not.) Of the 4 polls excluding Gallup, Obama is up an average of 3.3%, which is fairly consistent with the state-by-state rundown that I just did that shows Mccain would need to advance 4% in key swing states to retake the lead.
But are the likely voter models right this year? Based on voter turnout in the Democratic primary and the surge of new voters who have registered, Obama is clearly hoping to change the paradigm. Nobody knows for sure what the effect of this will be.
An anecdotal personal story further complicates thing. I recently moved to New Jersey and mailed in my voter registration last week. Because the deadline for registration in New Jersey is approaching (it is 21 days prior to the election) and I wanted to ensure the registration was received before it was too late. The lady who I spoke to at the Board of Elections informed me that they have a backlog of new registrations that has them working 7 days / week, 16 hours / day. She told me she didn't know the status of my application because they had such a huge backlog, but assured me it would be processed before election day if I sent it. She said in 40 years doing this, she has never seen anything approaching this level of new registrations.
Could it be that even the registered voter logs are not sufficient to get a good poll sample?
The Road Ahead
If, in fact, this really is only a 4% race, then Mccain is still very much alive, although he needs to start helping himself a lot more than he did in the debate. I don't anticipate the last debate to do much for him -- fewer people will be watching (having seen two people will tune out and Mccain can't seem to score a decisive win, barring a big gaffe by Obama), so it will get super-nasty from the stump and on the air. The kitchen sink will be flying to try to close the gap. And in the end, I expect it will be close, although I think Obama still has to be the favorite (but not a 3:1 favorite like on Intrade.) Keep in mind, it still isn't the fourth quarter. 27 days is a lifetime in politics.
Campaign Trail
Joe Biden appeared with Obama in Florida (obviously a key state.) Biden is in Missouri tomorrow
Obama appeared with Biden in Florida also had a rally in Indiana (a longer-shot for Obama, but still in play), then off to Ohio tomorrow
John Mccain is in Pennsylvania (clearly he doesn't believe it is a lost cause) and then on to Wisconsin tomorrow (does he know something I don't? Does he already have Florida, Ohio, Vriginia, North Carolina and Colorado sewn up and can afford to go after blue states?)
Sarah Palin is off today and in Ohio and Wisconsin tomorrow
In all, I have to admit I'm confused. Obama & Biden's strategy makes some sense -- go after the big battlegrounds (Ohio and Florida) and force Mccain to defend traditionally red states that are very close (Indiana and Missouri). Mccain spending time in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is crazy -- he'd love to win there of course, but he needs to be camped out in the myriad of other states he needs. There is a lot of turf to defend and not much time. Maybe it is cat and mouse. But it is getting late for fancy play.
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