It is inevitable -- in Presidential administrations, key staff members leave. Some leave because they burn out after a few years in high-profile, thankless and frankly, fairly low-paying jobs. Some leave because they come to have policy differences with the President (think Christie Todd Whitman and Colin Powell.) Some leave because of public fire or because the President just feels there is a need to make a change (think Donald Rumsfeld.) But ultimately, no President holds his entire cabinet together, even for 4 years.
So, in the spirit of the New Year and the pending second year of the Obama Administration, I thought I'd rate our "cabinet dead pool" on the probability that each member will survive 2010 in their current job.
Department of State -- Hillary Rodham Clinton
There was a lot of speculation early on that Clinton was not in Obama's inner-circle, that her appointment was simply an example of "keep your friends close and your enemies closer" and that Hillary would quickly tire of being a senior official in name only, with the real foreign policy decisions being made behind closed doors with the Vice-President and Secretary of Defense Gates driving the policy.
To my eyes, Clinton has done what she tends to do when she gets a new job -- she has gone to work. She has been quietly effective, if not omnipresent in front of the camera. During her actually fairly low-profile Senate career, Hillary was a worker not a glory seeker and the same seems to be the case here. Whether he ambitions will get the best of her over the course of the term remains to be seen, but for now, she seems unlikely to leave and the President seems extremely unlikely to ask her to.
Odds of Departure in 2010: 5%
Department of the Treasury -- Timothy Geithner
Geithner certainly got off to a rocky start. Blistering criticism from the right on his tax dodges (or "errors", if you like) and a poorly received mortgage bailout plan early on had many clamoring for his ouster very early on. As time has passed, the criticism seems to have waned and Geithner's job seems safe for now. The work he and Ben Bernake did on TARP in the waning days of the Bush Administration looks better now than it did a year ago and while Geithner does not appear to be in Obama's inner circle, his skill set is pretty unique and not something that is likely to be found in one of Obama's Chicago friends or from anyone he knew from his Senate days.
Odds of Departure in 2010: 5%
Department of Defense -- Robert Gates
It was all supposed to be a temporary arrangement -- the rumor around Washington was that Gates agreed to stay exactly one year in the new administration when he came on board an no more. Gates, perhaps the most high-profile of all Obama cabinet members has been coy with the press, saying that he "serves at the pleasure of the President" but that it is "unlikely" that he will stay in the job for all of Obama's term. Still, clearly the year will pass without Gates leaving, there hasn't been a peep of a rumor about his departure in the past few months and Gates clearly has been effective in influencing policy (the Afghanistan strategy is largely his brain child as were modifications to the military budget to scrap expensive F-22's in favor of more enlisted troops) and most decidedly is President Obama's go-to guy on Defense policy. If he leaves, it is likely to be in the second half of the year and, in the continuation of his practice of doing things the right way, only after a successor is in place. President Obama should seek to hold on to Gates for as long as he can.
Odds of Departure in 2010: 50%
Department of Justice -- Eric Holder
There were probably better ways for Holder to introduce himself to the nation than to call us all a "nation of cowards" on race, although his point wasn't entirely wrong, but Holder seems to have weathered that storm as well as the criticism at his confirmation hearing about his role in Rich pardon while part of the Clinton-era Justice Department. Holder has been effective on a number of fronts, backing off federal prosecution of medical marijuana cases, vacating the prosecution against former Alaska Senator Ted Stevens and starting to bring terrorists to trial in the US. It seems Holder is always at the center of controversy, but he IS, undoubtedly in Obama's inner circle and as such, his job is pretty safe, unless he REALLY steps in it in the new year.
Odds of Departure in 2010: 10%
Department of Interior -- Ken Salazar
The former Colorado Senator appears to be having the time of his life, is generating no controversy and frankly, isn't in a very high-profile cabinet department. He is very safe.
Odds of Departure in 2010: 2%
Department of Agriculture Tom Vilsack
Frankly, most of us probably forgot he even had this job. He has been very low-profile, although that could obviously change if there is a mad cow or hoof-in-mouth disease scare in the next year. Still, he is very well-liked on a bi-partisan basis and has generated no waves so far.
Odds of Departure in 2010: 2%
Department of Commerce -- Gary Locke
President Obama's third pick for the Commerce Department (after his first two fell apart for various reasons) has a big task in 2010 -- execution of the census. We haven't heard a ton form Secretary Locke yet, but expect his profile to increase. And expect there to be the requisite controversy that always accompanies the census -- how the homeless are counted, how illegals are counted, whether statistical sampling will be used for funding purposes (the Supreme Court has already ruled that it cannot be used for House and Electoral allocation purposes.) Still, Locke is a seasoned political veteran nearing the end of his career. It's hard to imagine him departing this year.
Odds of Departure in 2010: 3%
Department of Labor -- Hilda Solis
The subject of a confirmation fight for her unapologetically pro-union political stands, Secretary Solis has taken a lower profile in the first year of the Obama Administration. The union's crown jewel of legislation, the Employee Free Choice Act has not seen Congressional action yet, although the new Administration, at the urging of the Labor Secretary, has issued several executive orders favorable to public service unions. Secretary Solis certainly has a better job than when she was in Congress and doesn't have an obvious next step politically (she could be a Senate candidate down the road in California, but right now there are no Democratic vacancies.)
Odds of Departure in 2010: 3%
Department of Health and Human Services -- Kathleen Sebelius
Among the higher profile Obama administration officials, Secretary Sebelius has been central in the fight for universal healthcare. She appears NOT to be in the Obama inner circle and as such at times appeared off-message during the debate. Her real test will be if a reform plan IS passed in overseeing the implementation, which could be a make-or-break for her career. She also seems to still have political clout back home, although the calendar would seem to preclude a 2010 Senate run at this point.
Odds of Departure in 2010: 5%
Department of Housing and Urban Development -- Shaun Donovan
Another Obama inner-circle member who seems to have created no controversy, even on the right. His job is very safe.
Odds of Departure in 2010: 2%
Secretary of Transportation -- Ray Lahood
One of Obama's Republican appointees, Lahood is a quirky guy. He can come off as oddly combative in interviews sometimes, has some controversial ideas (like taxing automobile mileage) and seems like a bit of a loose cannon. He is decidedly not an inner-circle member and seems like he could part ways with the administration at any time. Still, where would he go? He isn't going to be a statewide candidate for either party at this point and it frankly seems unlikely he could even win back his old seat in congress.
Odds of Departure in 2010: 10%
Department of Energy -- Steven Chu
A career scientist, not a politician, Chu is an exceptionally bright individual. He has been low-profile thus far, probably a product of the fact that he is more effective at speaking to scientists than to the general public. Chu has generated no controversy, although that could certainly change as debates ensue about Cap and Trade and the green economy and he is dispatched with greater frequency. Still, I would find it highly surprising to see Chu depart this year.
Odds of Departure in 2010: 3%
Secretary of Education -- Arne Duncan
As bright and articulate as he has proved to be unconventional, Chicago-insider Arne Duncan has been a breath of fresh air in stale debates over educational reform. He has the President's ear, possibly more than any other cabinet member, and is well-liked on both sides of capital hill.
Odds of Departure in 2010: 2%
Department of Veterans Affairs -- Eric Shinseki
A decorated ex-officer running Veterans Affairs -- he has the best possible job with his credentials and is well-liked on both sides of the aisles. He isn't leaving.
Odds of Departure in 2010: 2%
Department of Homeland Security -- Janet Napolitano
It's been a tough few weeks for Napolitano. Her "the system worked" gaffe harkened back for many to the George W. Bush's tone-deaf "you're doing a heck of a job, Brownie" and convinced many that she is out of touch with the threat that exists in the US. Napolitano has been extremely high profile between the Mexican drug wars, the Fort Hood shootings and the Christmas Day bombing attempt and has not always appeared in the best light. She gave up an opportunity to oppose John McCain in Arizona in 2010 to come onboard and may ultimately regret doing so. Still, the Obama Administration has repeatedly stated that her job is not at risk and it seems likely she will survive the year.
Odds of Departure in 2010: 15%
So, there you have it. I rate Gates (50%) by far the most likely to depart this year, Napolitano (15%) second and Holder (10%) and Lahood (10%) tied for third. In total, my percentages would imply a 71% probability of at least one Obama cabinet member departing this year.
Don't agree? Have another leader in your "dead pool"? Let me know.
Happy New Year's everyone.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment