The Good, The Bad and The Ugly of the RNC

The slickly-produced 3-day Republican National Convention is now done, culminating with Mitt Romney's unexpectedly passionate acceptance speech.  Before action moves to the Democratic National Convention on Monday, I thought I'd reflect on what worked well, what worked poorly and what was just plain ugly at the convention.

The Good (and Very Good)
(1) Condoleezza Rice
Rice gave far and away my favorite speech of the convention.  First, she has a grace and a presence that is seldom seen in political circles.  She spoke from the heart and even declined to use a teleprompter, choosing instead to speak from memory.  Her personal story is compelling and her views on national security, while all (including myself) may not agree, are always stated with intellectual force and thoughtful logic.  She hit the rare duo of giving an intellectual and honest speech and arousing the passion and love of the crowd.

(2) Chris Christie
The night that Christie spoke was also the night of Ann Romney's personal speech about her husband.  Most pundits concluded that Ann Romney's speech was highly effective and that Christie's was mediocre.  Let me go on record and say that I think most pundits are nuts.

Ann Romney's speech may have done something to personalize the sometimes-wooden GOP nominee, but it was largely generic platitudes.  No disrespect to the Romneys, who seem to have a truly loving marriage, but the fact that Ann Romney loves Mitt is hardly a surprise or a differentiating factor, and certainly not something anyone should vote based on.

Christie's speech was pointed and passionate without being caustic (as he has often been accused) or deceiving.  His story of effective governance in New Jersey is almost all true.  His line that "real leaders don't listen to polls, real leaders change polls" will probably be the one line from the 3-day convention that I will remember for a long time and I thought struck a chord with an increasingly cynical electorate.  He represented the future of the GOP well.

(3) The Personal Narratives of Mitt Romney's Life
The stories, told by others, of the personally generous things that Mitt Romney has done to help children with cancer, a single mother with a leaky roof and many others personalized Romney for me in a way that Ann Romney's speech failed to do.  I write a lot about politics and am not particularly prone to being emotionally swayed by politics, much less so by a heavily produced political convention, but I honestly walked away from those speeches believing Mitt to be a good person.

(4) The First Half of Mitt's Acceptance Speech
Mitt was fired up, patriotic and optimistic, possibly the three most important elements a candidate has to possess to be a winner on the national stage.  He was believable and while he took President Obama head on, he did it in a reasonable way, steering clear of ridiculous allegations.  His singular question "If you felt that excitement when you voted for Barack Obama, shouldn't you feel that way now that he's President Obama?" I thought was a simple and fairly damning indictment of the Obama Administration - those who voted for President Obama (myself included) are certainly a heck of a lot less excited about the President now than when he was a candidate.

Poor
(1) The Second Half of Mitt Romney's Speech
When he began to talk policy, Mitt utterly lost me, and I would wager, many independent voters.  When he says a top priority of his will be to "repeal and replace Obamacare", I am still struck with two thoughts.  #1 - Why are you so passionate about repealing a bill that is based on the one you created in your home state and that you wrote in early 2009 in a USA Today editorial should be anational model?  And #2 (and more importantly, once I get past his big flip-flop) - replace it with what?  What is the Romney healthcare plan?

Secondly, lowering taxes, increasing defense spending, protecting existing entitlement benefits for those retired and those slated to retire in the next 10 years and balancing the budget is a mathematical impossibility.  Let me put it more simply - it is a lie.  Mitt Romney is right to call President Obama on the carpet for not halving the deficit as he had promised to do in the 2008 campaign.  But Mitt's plan is far more dishonest.

Finally, his foreign policy indictment of the President was, to me, bizarre.  Lack of support for Israel is a legitimate issue.  But Romney will be more free trade and yet impose sanctions on China?  Does any credible economist or foreign policy expert think these two promises are reasonable?  He would have done more with Iran?  What exactly?  Go to war?  Romney would be wise to steer clear of foreign policy, as I think it is possibly Obama's strongest story.

One small but subtle final point - how can Romney simultaneously claim that we need to shrink the federal payroll but oppose defense cuts, in part, because they would "cost jobs" (his words in his convention speech)?  Does it get any more hypocritical than that?

(2) Paul Ryan
The big idea, serious policy guy told a dishonest set of hackish talking points.  I had some hope when Ryan became the VP pick that we were going to have a serious discussion about the size of government and the best way to reduce the deficit.  After his speech, I think I can kiss that goodbye and officially label him an opportunist, not a serious thinker.

His indictment of Obama for a shuttered GM plant has been ravaged by the fact-checking organizations.  Blaming the President for a factory whose closure was announced during the Bush administration is a joke.

His attack on Obama for reducing Medicare spending is absurd when his own budget contained identical cuts, as well as much deeper ones in Medicaid.  Claiming now that he and Romney are going to be the protector of entitlements is a funny thing to say for someone who has hardly been an advocate for our entitlement programs in the past.

All the points above about Romney's speech apply just as much to Ryan's as well.

The Ugly
 (1) Clint Eastwood
Might have been better to have him record a video or at least get him to agree to stick to a script.  The rambling, off-message rant from Eastwood the night of Romney's big speech was an ugly distraction.  I'm not sure exactly what Eastwood was advocating, but I think he said Romney would have brought troops home from Afghanistan faster?  I almost felt sorry for the guy, he was so lost and incoherent.

Overall, it was a solid convention.  It is too early to have a good poll read on the impact, although the last 2 cycles, convention impacts have been a lot more muted, thanks to the early exposure of 24 hour news networks.  If Romney can get a 2-3% bump out of this, I think his team would consider it to be a success.  Even that will be hard to measure with the DNC happening so close behind.  I will try to get a read on the polls early in the week, before the DNC begins in earnest, to measure the Romney bounce.

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The Big 2012 Electoral Map - Ryan Selection Shows Some Gains for Romney, Conventions Take Form

Race Tightens
Days Until Election: 80
Projected Popular Vote Total: Obama +1.9% (down 1.9% from 2 weeks ago)
Projected Electoral Vote Total: Obama 323, Romney 215 (Romney +9 from 2 weeks ago)

State Changes: Colorado swings from Romney to Obama (9 electoral votes)

Since the selection of Rep. Paul Ryan as Mitt Romney's running mate, media coverage has been largely focused on Ryan and has largely been positive.  This, plus Joe Biden firing off yet another in his seemingly endless string of gaffes, have moved the polls back towards Romney.

In addition to Colorado swinging from Obama to Romney, Ohio and Florida are now even closer (arguably well within the margin of error) and Ryan's Wisconsin roots puts that state in contention in a more meaningful way.

So, at least in the short-term, the selection of Ryan appears to have been a success for Romney.  This was the first of 7 scheduled significant events in the last 100 days of the election that I discussed previously, with the 2 conventions and the 4 debates comprising the other major events.

Romney still has ground to make up, obviously.  Even if Romney manages to flip Ohio and Florida, he will be at 262 electoral votes and will need to either flip Virginia or Wisconsin or some combination of two states between Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada.

The next major events are the Republican convention in Tampa and the Democratic convention in Charlotte.  Let's turn our attention there.

Convention Speaker Roundup
The GOP is rolling out the A-list for the convention and largely excluding the more polarizing wing of the party.  Confirmed speakers are listed below, including keynote speakers.

Chris Christie, NJ Governor, Keynote
Jeb Bush, Former FL Governor
Nikki Haley, SC Governor
Mike Huckabee, Former AR Governor
John Kasich, OH Governor
Susana Martinez, NM Governor
Rick Scott, FL Governor
Scott Walker, WI Governor
Mary Fallin, OK Governor
Luis Fortuno, PR Governor
Condoleezza Rice, Former Secretary of State
Pam Bondi, FL Attorney General
Sam Olens, GA Attorney General
Ted Cruz, TX Senate Nominee
Artur Davis, Former Democratic Representative
Rand Paul, KY Senator
John McCain, AZ Senator
Rick Santorum, Former PA Senator

A few key things to note.  First of all, the outside-the-beltway focus is evident, with 10 current or former governors and 2 AG's speaking (12 state-level speakers) and only 3 current or former Senators, 1 Senate nominee, 1 former Representative and 1 former cabinet official (6 national politicans.)  So, two thirds of the convention will feature people from primarily outside-the-beltway.

Also notably absent are the most controversial of the Republican politicians.  Sarah Palin is not featured.  Neither is George W. Bush or Dick Cheney.  Newt Gingrich is missing, as is Herman Cain.  This is, perhaps, the first time I can recall a living, healthy ex-President not making a speech at his party's convention, although there is still time for Bush to be given a speaking spot and if not, one can certainly understand Romney's desire not to remind people of the last Republican President.

Also of note is the diversity of the speakers.  Of the 18 that have been named, fully one third are ethnic minorities with 3 featured hispanics (Cruz, Fortuno and Martinez), 2 featured African-Americans (Davis and Rice) and 1 featured Indian-American (Haley.)  5 of the 18 speakers are women (Bondi, Haley, Martinez, Rice and Fallin.)

I think the focus on diversity is progress.  While Democrats will say it is a cynical attempt to win hispanic votes and appear inclusive to swing white voters, I say that even if that is the motivation, the very fact that the GOP chooses to focus on highlighting diversity in the party is a good thing.

On the Democratic side, the schedule is far less formed.  Confirmed so far are:
Bill Clinton, Former President
Jimmy Carter, Former President (by video)
Michele Obama, First Lady
Julian Castro, San Antonio Mayor
Elizabeth Warren, MA Senate Candidate

Stay tuned.

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