Final Projections & My Guide to the Election

Final Projections for President
8 Hours Until the Election-Day Polls Open
Final Projected Popular Vote Total: Obama +0.9%
Final Projected Electoral Vote Total: Obama 303, Romney 235
Election-Eve Betting Odds: Obama 67%, Romney 33%
Election-Eve Popular Vote Betting Odds: Obama 60%, Romney 38%, within 0.5% - 2%

Of note on the election eve:
(1) No earth-shattering changes on election eve in the state-by-state count.  The closest and hardest-to-call statements (within my historic margin of error) are Virginia, Colorado and Florida, in that order.  Neither of those 3 are likely to be the tipping point state in the election.
(2) Romney HAS made real gains in Pennsylvania with his late campaign effort and spending, but appears to be falling just short.  Interestingly, in my calculation Pennsylvania IS, at this point the tipping point state in the election.  One to watch on election night.
(3) Minnesota is effectively off the table as a swing state
(4) The popular vote vs. electoral vote polling disparity has disappeared.  My state-by-state projections, when run through the 2008 electorate, produces a margin of 1.0% for President Obama.  The national polling implies a 0.9% advantage for him, insignificantly different.

I remain comfortable with my projection that the President will carry the day.  But this is certainly not 2008, where I make that projection with near 100% certainty.

One note that I should make is that I am making all of my final calls on election eve.  Polls will continue to be released during the day tomorrow and many websites "final" calls are based on these polls.  In my mind, if you don't project it ahead of time, it isn't really a projection.  So, the other websites in many cases have an advantage of newer information, but I will continue to benchmark my performance against what they call their "final" projections.

It will be extremely difficult to meet the accuracy of my popular vote projection in 2008, when I was dead-on to the final result (although I ironically believed that I had missed by 0.7% based on the preliminary election results.)  I don't have any aspiration of being so exact again.

Last time I called 48 states right.  I'd like to match that benchmark and believe I could, although I find 3 states very difficult to call, so a reasonable range would be to get 47-50 states right.

Of course, either candidate could significantly outperform the polls and I could be far worse than last time - we'll have to tune in to see.

Final Projections for the Senate
Projected Senate composition: 52 Democrats, 46 Republicans, 2 Independents (effective Democratic working majority of 54-46)

The Democrats are poised to retain the Senate.  The closest races, in Virginia, Wisconsin and Montana will provide the margin.  The Republicans best chance to pick up the Senate would be to win in the states that I project plus win in very-close Wisconsin and Virgina, pick up the tough fight in Massachusetts and find one other state to take, plus win the Presidency, a near-impossible task unless there is an overwhelming surge for Romney, with coattails.

Final Projections for the House
Final generic ballot average: Republicans +0.1%
Projected House composition: 239 Republicans, 196 Democrats

Republicans will comfortably retain the House, thanks to very favorable redistricting and a strong incumbency position.

Other Projections
Here is what others are projecting in the electoral college:
Fivethirtyeight (Nate Silver) - Obama 332, Romney 206
realclearpolitics (no toss-ups) - Obama 303, Romney 235
electoral-vote.com - Obama 281, Romney 206, 51 Tied
electionprojection.com - Obama 290, Romney 248
Fox News - Obama 202, Romney 192, 146 Toss-Up
CNN - Obama 237, Romney 206, 95 Toss-Up
PBS - Obama 247, Romney 246, 85 Toss-Up
Karl Rove - Obama 184, Romney 180, 174 Toss-Up (seriously?  174 toss-ups?  I could've made that projection 2 years ago!)

Of the sites that endeavor to make a projection in every state, there only real area of disagreement is about the closest state - Virginia.  Virginia is certainly extremely close and very hard to call, so this is understandable.  The other states we are in violent agreement, mainly because we all read the same polls.  So we are only going to be wrong when the polls are in agreement if the polls are systemically wrong.

Poll Closing Times (all times in Eastern Time)
Of critical importance as you are following the coverage is when polls close in each state as this will be the first look we get at exit poll data in those states as well as the ballots actually beginning to be counted.  Here are time horizons for all 50 states.  Note that I have sorted them based on when the LAST polls close - as an example the majority of polls in Florida close at 7 PM ET, but the Central Time Zone polls in the panhandle close at 8 PM ET.  Typically, but not universally, states will not be called by the networks until all polls are closed.

7 PM Closing Time (6 states including 1 battleground)
Indiana (Eastern time zone polls close at 6 PM)
Kentucky (Eastern time zone polls close at 6 PM)
South Carolina
Georgia
Vermont
Virginia

7:30 PM Closing Time (3 states including 1 battleground)
North Carolina
Ohio 
West Virginia

8 PM Closing Time (17 states/territories including 3 battlegrounds)
Alabama
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida (Eastern time zone polls close at 7 PM)
Illinois
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Mississippi
Missouri
New Hampshire
New Jersey
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Tennessee

8:30 PM Closing Time (1 state)
Arkansas

9 PM Closing Time (12 states including 2 battlegrounds)
Arizona
Colorado
Louisiana
Michigan (Eastern time zone polls close at 8 PM)
Minnesota
Nebraska
New Mexico
New York
South Dakota (Central time zone polls close at 8 PM)
Texas (Central time zone polls close at 8 PM)
Wisconsin
Wyoming

10 PM Closing Time (5 states including 1 battleground)
Iowa
Kansas (Central time zone polls close at 9 PM)
Montana
Nevada
Utah

11 PM Closing Time (6 states)
California
Hawaii
Idaho (Mountain time zone polls close at 10 PM)
Oregon (Mountain time zone polls close at 10 PM)
North Dakota (Central time zone polls close at 10 PM)
Washington

12 AM Closing Time (1 state)
Alaska (Alaska Standard Time polls close at 11 PM)

As you can see, Virginia and Ohio close pretty early in the night, so there are a lot of clues that we can glean from the early returns there.  If Mitt Romney is strong there, it could be a good night for him, or at least a long night and a close race.  If Obama can win in either of those 2 states, it is probably over.  Pennsylvania comes half an hour after Ohio and as my current projected "tipping point" state, will also be important to watch.

If we are still waiting around for the results of our last battleground, Nevada, which closes at 10 PM, we know we have a nail-biter election.

Things to Watch For:
(1) Turnout, Turnout, Turnout
The key debate among pollsters and the key talking point from the GOP for plausible path to victory for Mitt Romney has been that pollster are significantly overestimating youth and minority turnout, both of which were very strong for him in 2008.  If the electorate looks like 2008, it will be a good night for Obama.  If it looks like 2004, it could be a good night for Romney.

(2) Don't Just Watch the Totals, Look at WHERE the Votes are Coming From
We can get ourselves in trouble in early returns if we simply take the partial totals at face value.  To understand the impact on a projection, we need to look at the returns in the swing states by county and precinct and overlay them with the 2008 results, then understand what Obama's margin was in 2008 in that state for comparison.

For instance, in Ohio, Barack Obama won by 4.6% in 2012.  In Hamilton County, he won by 6.9%.  Therefore, if we see early returns in the state from Hamilton County that show him up by 3%, it probably implies a very close race.  If we see him trailing in Hamilton County, he's probably in trouble.

This concept is very important in Pennsylvania, which is essentially composed of Philadelphia (extremely Democratic), the suburbs and exurbs of Philadelphia (swing areas) and the rest of the date (strongly Republican.)  You could see an early lead that shows one candidate 30 points ahead and it still might not mean that he carries the state.

(3) Take the Exit Polls with a Grain of Salt
There has been a systemic problem for several election cycles of exit polling being biased towards the Democrats.  Early exit polls made many believe that John Kerry was going to soundly beat George W. Bush in 2004.  Similarly, in 2008, the raw exit polling data showed a much more massive victory for President Obama than actually materialized.

Unlike a pre-election poll, exit polls are very difficult to correct for participation bias - certain people are more likely to talk to pollsters coming out of a booth than others.  Also, it is much harder to be scientific  in the moment, without time to assess and reweigh demographics for this effect.

So if you see early indications of exit polls that show President Obama much stronger than the pre-election polls, be wary that they mean anything.

(4) Is There a Surprise State?
Could a state no one is thinking is in play and is therefore lightly polled actually show up as a battleground?  Since there isn't much polling in states that we all believe are safe in one direction, these surprises can happen, although they are rare.

Could Mitt Romney shock everyone and win a Maine or a New Mexico?  Could Barack Obama pull off a shocker in Georgia or Montana?  They seem unlikely, but stranger things have happened.

(5) Watch Intrade
The state-by-state and national markets are very liquid during an election, quickly incorporating all the new data coming in from multiple sources.  This is not to say that they are always right, but they are a great barometer of who is in the hunt.

Betters will make a "call" with their money long before gun-shy (since 2000) networks are willing to make a call in a state.

All the debates, campaigns and ads are done (well, maybe not all the ads, but almost!)

Nothing left to do but:
(1) Vote
(2) Watch the results roll in
(3) Congratulate the winner

I hope you will join me tomorrow night for live-blogging during the returns.  Please get out and vote for your candidate.  And if you like this site, tell your friends.

No Change in Presidential Race, Democratic Prospects Brighten in Senate But Not in House, The Voter Turnout Debate Rages On

First Polls Open In: 4 Days, 9 Hours
Projected Popular Vote Total: Obama +0.7% (up 0.1% from yesterday)
Projected Electoral Vote Total: Obama 290, Romney 248 (unchanged from yesterday)
Current Betting Odds: Obama 66%, Romney 34% (Romney up 1% from yesterday)
Current Popular Vote Betting Odds: Obama 57%, Romney 39%, within 0.5% - 4%

Not much has changed in the Presidential picture in the past 24 hours, other than Mitt Romney has 24 less hours to close what is, in my analysis, an electoral gap.  The news cycle continues to be dominated by hurricane coverage with only passing mentions of politics.  I expect the election coverage to pick up in earnest this weekend.

We are technically past the point of an October surprise - it is November, after all, but not too late for a late-breaking revelation, although one seems highly unlikely given that:
a. Obama has been in office for 4 years and has been vetted for smoking guns by the GOP as well as the Donald Trumps of the world and no smoking gun has been found.
b. Mitt Romney has essentially been running for President for at least 6 years and has been thoroughly investigated by two slates of GOP candidates without a smoking gun.

Given the relative stability of the Presidential race, I thought I'd devote some time to the races that I haven't been covering enough - the down ticket federal races for the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives.

In the Senate, Democratic prospects have improved significantly over the past several months.  Races that many, including myself, once believed would be easier wins for the GOP are now competitive, while Democrats have largely held safe the seats I believed would be safe.

Democrats have 30 seats that are not up for re-election and 13 races that I consider safe (>10% lead), giving them an effective starting point of 43 seats.

Additionally, there are two seats where an Independent will safely win who will likely caucus with the Democrats - Socialist Bernie Sanders will easily hold on for another term and former Governor Angus King is a lock to win in Maine and is believed to be headed to the Democratic Caucus.

On the GOP side, they have 36 seats not up and 5 races I consider safe.

Here is the polling averages associated with the remaining races and the build to my projection:

My current projection is for 52 Democrats, 46 Republicans and 2 Independents in the new Senate, or an effective working majority of 54-46 for the Democrats.



Of course, there are a number of exceptionally close races, most notably in Virginia, Montana, Wisconsin and Arizona.  And the polling in many Senate races is not nearly as broad as in the Presidential race, so the margin of error in these projections will be higher.

In the reasonable best case for the GOP, if they pick up all 4 of those ultra-close races, we would be looking at 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans and 2 Independents, which would still give Democrats a 51-49 working majority.  Basically, the tipping point races for control would be Ohio and Missouri.  The GOP would need both if Obama wins re-election and Joe Biden becomes the tie-breaker in a 50-50 Senate.  They would need only 1 of those 2 if Mitt Romney wins and Paul Ryan is the tie-breaker.

In the House, Democratic prospects are not nearly as bright.  Current aggregation of generic polling indicates that the GOP is at +0.5%, which implies a GOP majority of 243-192.  Because of the lack of polling data, I do not project individual House races, but the generic polling contrasted against the composition of House districts typically yields a pretty good proxy in aggregate.  The GOP have been huge beneficiaries of the last redistricting cycle.  Because of the shape and demographics of the new House maps, which were largely drawn by GOP legislatures because of the drubbing that Democrats took in 2010 in state houses, a national even split of the vote (that is if exactly 50% of people voted for each party, approximately in line with their demographics) would produce approximately 238 GOP House seats.  To get to a House majority, Democrats would need to be about +2% in the national vote, a margin they don't appear to be near as the election nears.

Turnout Models Reveal This Simple Truth - Turnout Determines All Close Elections
I can't remember a Presidential election where the question of voter turnout and the composition of the electorate has been the subject of so much debate in polling.

Gallup and the National Journal aren't getting broadly divergent polling results because they are talking to different types of voters - they are largely getting divergent results because they disagree on who will actually show up to vote.  I use these two as the two extreme in national polling - the last Gallup poll had Romney up 5%, the last National Journal poll had Obama up 5%.

Who is going to turn out in an election is the hardest thing that a pollster has to determine.  Asking people how likely they are to vote is often an unreliable barometer, typically many more people answering a survey SAY they will show up to vote than ACTUALLY do.

Leveraging history is tricky, and here is the rub between the two polls and competing schools of thought.

Gallup's turnout model looks largely like a 2004 model.  Gallup would argue (and the GOP talking heads would agree) that 2008 had a unique set of circumstances that drove up Democratic turnout.  Youth turnout surged to an all-time high.  Turnout from both blacks and Hispanics was higher than in any previous election - and not by a small margin.  Hope and change was in the air and Democrats were fired up.  It is certainly fair to argue that they are less fired up today.

The National Journal has a model that looks more like 2008.  They would argue that while there may be some dampened enthusiasm in some demographics - such as the youth vote, the black vote will show up for Obama in the end and the Hispanic population has grown significantly, meaning that even if Hispanic turnout is down, overall Hispanic share of the electorate will remain roughly flat.

Knowing who is right is very difficult, since, as I said, there are no highly reliable ways to know.

My belief is that the truth is somewhere in between.  The point of using models, as I do, that average and aggregate polls in multiple ways, is that meeting in the middle of the sets of assumptions from experts generally produces a far more accurate result than picking a model on either extreme because you like it.

We will know in a few days who is right.  But there are two things that this turnout debate makes crystal clear:
(1) Watching voter turnout on election day will give us a great indication as to who has won the election
and
(2) Get out and vote!  Whichever candidate you like, whether you and others like you turn out or not will determine whether he wins or not.

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A Tightening Race Thanks to Bad Circumstances and Bad Strategy, The All Out Battle for Congress

Days Until the Election: 150
Projected Popular Vote Total: Obama +0.9%
Projected Electoral Vote Total: Obama 303-Romney 235

Projected Senate Total: Republican 50, Democratic 48, Independents 2
Projected House Total: Republican 260, Democratic 175


The Top of the Ticket
Lousy employment news isn't helping President Obama, but neither is a campaign that is off-message and a Presidency that seems out of ideas on the economy.  Infighting among Democrats, including Newark Mayor Cory Booker and former President Bill Clinton over private equity has been a complete distraction, eliminating any air space for him to fight presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney.  With the stimulus money spent, monetary policy about as loose as it can possibly be (between near zero interest rates and quantitative easing) and both payroll and income tax cuts extended through the end of this year, it's not clear at all where the President goes from here on the economy.

While the electoral count doesn't look any different than my last posting, the national polls have tightened significantly and the close states make a Romney win look more viable than it did just a few weeks ago. 

Ratings shifts from my last map:
Colorado - from Likely Obama to Lean Obama
Wisconsin - from Lean Obama to Likely Obama
Michigan - from Strong Obama to Likely Obama
Maine - from Strong Obama to Likely Obama

Mitt Romney's road to the White House is fairly simple now.  Win the states he is presently leading (i.e. hold on to Missouri, North Carolina and Florida) and win the Lean Obama states.  Ohio, Colorado, Iowa and Virginia have a combined 46 electoral votes.  If Romney takes that path, it will give him 281, more than enough to win.  He can afford to give up either Iowa or Colorado, but Ohio and Virginia are must-haves, just as they have been all race.

Do I hear a call to Rob Portman for the Veep spot?

The Senate
The Democratic Party has a near-impossible task of retaining the Senate in 2012, with all of the unlikely upsets they pulled off in the sweep of 2006 up for re-election and a slim majority.  They are hanging on by a thread at the moment, with just enough seats to hold the majority, assuming Bernie Sanders (Independent/Socialist - Vermont) continues to caucus with the Democrats and that likely Maine winner Angus King does as well (as he is expected to), plus the Democratic ticket wins at the top.  But they have a lot of seats at risk.

Excluding the seats up for election this time,  there are 37 Republicans and 30 Democrats who will return to Washington next year.

Of the 33 races up for grabs, here are my latest projections:
Safe or Strong Democratic (13)
California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Washington, West Virginia

Safe or Strong Independent (2)
Maine, Vermont

Likely Democratic (1)
Ohio

Lean Democratic (4)
Florida, New Mexico, North Dakota, Virginia

Lean Republican (6)
Indiana, Massachusetts, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Wisconsin

Likely Republican (2)
Arizona, Nebraska

Safe or Strong Republican (5)
Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming

So, in the range of likely scenarios, Republicans could up their total to as many as 54 seats or, if the national tide somehow turns, fall back to 42.  Clearly there is a lot yet to be decided in the Senate.

The House
Republicans have a massive structural advantage in this year's House elections thanks to redistricting.  Republican victories in state houses and gubernatorial races over the past few years have given them the right to draw a lot of congressional districts to their advantage.  Plus, the continued practice of drawing black-majority districts (a product of the Voting Rights Act) naturally concentrates heavily Democratic black voters in a smaller number of House districts, leading to a few solidly Democratic districts in urban areas and a number of modestly Republican seats in the suburbs and exurbs.

How big is the GOP structural advantage?  Looking at the Cook Partisan Voting Index, which measures how much more Republican or Democratic a district is than the nation as a whole, with the new house districts we see:
Solidly Democratic Districts (RPI +10 Democratic or higher) = 111
Likely Democratic Districts (RPI of 5 to 9) = 44
Lean Democratic Districts (RPI of 1 to 4) = 37
Toss-Up Districts (RPI = 0) = 9
Lean Republican Districts (RPI of 1 to 4) = 45
Likely Republican Districts (RPI of 5 to 9) = 78
Solidly Republican Districts (RPI +10 Republican or higher) = 111

What this means is that if the Congressional vote split exactly 50/50, the GOP would win between 234 and 243 seats, a solid majority in either case.  For the Democrats to get to the magic number of 218, they would need to win nationally by about 2%.

And at the moment, they trail in the generic ballot by 2%, leading to a very solid GOP majority.

A lot could change in this projection as a few point swing can have big effects on the House total.  But it sure looks good for the GOP in the House at this stage of the game.

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Circling the Wagons for Romney, A Preview of the Downticket Races

Romney Looks to Seal the Deal
As I discussed last week, the Illinois really did change the conversation in the Republican Party.  I can't say exactly why - certainly it was a state that Romney should have won and Santorum won Louisiana the next Saturday decisively, continuing his pattern of winning in the deep south and the center of the country.

But I think, for whatever reason, the conservative parts of the establishment woke up to the fact that Santorum probably isn't going to have a break through outside of the regions he has been winning and that absent such a breakthrough, he cannot win.

Also contributing to the need to circle the wagons is the fact that they have seen President Obama look stronger and stronger in heads up match-ups against a potential nominee and see the possibility of a winnable general election race slipping away from them if the fight for the nomination continues.

A long nomination fight is not always a bad thing - certainly President Obama and then-Sentaor Hillary Clinton had a long process - through all the primaries and caucuses and beyond, and certainly there was ill will between the two camps even after the race (does anyone remember that PUMA = "Party Unity, My Ass!")  But Hillary and Barack weren't really that far apart on the issues.  That wasn't a fight for the core of the party, it was a fight between two candidates carrying the same center-left mantle.  And Republicans are no doubt sensing that a civil war playing out on the news every night through June would not help their general election chances.

So circle the wagons they have.  Jeb Bush has endorsed Mitt Romney.  So has Marco Rubio.  So has George H.W. Bush.  So has Paul Ryan.  Jim Demint didn't officially endorse Romney, but basically said Republicans should unite behind him.  It was actually a very impressively orchestrated parade of endorsements coming out at smartly timed increments throughout the course of the week.

Romney appears poised to win all three contests on Tuesday, with Maryland and DC firmly in his corner and Romney holding a high single-digit lead in Wisconsin.  He wants to win all three decisively, then have his inevitability be the story in the 3 week gap between those races and April 24th where he should, at minimum win 4 out of the 5 states that hold contests (New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware) and hopes to win the fifth (Santorum's home state of Pennsylvania.)

If Romney can effectively close the show in April, he avoids having to face down what would likely be a string of losses if the race stays competitive, in unfriendly territory: May's contests include: North Carolina, Indiana, West Virginia, Nebraska, Oregon, Kentucky, Arkansas and Texas.  In a close race, he'd likely lose 7 out of 8, making the news story all about how Republicans still aren't sold on him.

In a race that is no longer close, he could win 5 or 6 out of the 8 (he probably still loses a few in Kentucky, Arkansas and Nebraska, but the rest are winnable.)

Romney will close it out for sure in June, when his California/New Jersey/Utah winner-take-all firewall goes up.  But he'd rather not spend two months plus spending money and defending his reputation.

What's Going on in the Senate and House?
I looked at the electoral map last time, so I thought I'd bring things up-to-date in the key Senate races and a first look at how the newly-redistricted House races will shape up.

The Democrats have a lot of turf to cover as this is an "echo" of the 2006 race, where they made huge gains, including in some states that traditionally aren't that friendly to Democrats.  All of those seats are up for grabs this cycle.

The current composition of the Senate is 51 Democrats, 47 Republicans and 2 Independents.  Since the two Independents - Joe Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernie Sanders of Vermont caucus with the Democrats, this gives them a working majority of 53 to 47.

The Democrats have 21 seats up for re-election as well as both of the seats held by Democratic-leaning independents.  The Republicans are only defending 10.

Here is a run-down of the races as they stand today.  The one disclaimer that I'd give at this stage in the game is that even seats categorized as "Safe" could still shift between now and the election.  Just look at Scott Brown's upset to see what is possible in allegedly safe races.  But as of now, these are 20%+ races.

Safe Independent Hold (1)
Vermont

Safe Democratic Holds (6)
California, Maryland, New York, Delaware, Minnesota, Rhode Island

Likely Democratic Holds (5)
New Jersey - Bob Menendez faces a couple of possible GOP opponents, but New Jersey (my home state) has not proven favorable to GOP Senate candidates in a long time and Menendez is still popular.
Pennsylvania - Pennsylvania may be a swing state of sorts, but Bob Casey Jr., the man who beat Rick Santorum for his Senate seat is extremely popular and the Casey name is gold in Pennsylvania.
Washington - Maria Cantwell is running for re-election in this solid blue state that appears likely to stay that way.
Hawaii - Hawaii is not safe for the Democrats for two reasons - it is an open seat and Linda Lingle, who has proven her ability to win statewide is running.  But this is still the bluest of blue states and Lingle trails all possible opponents in the polls by double-digit margins.
Michigan - Debbie Stabenow runs for re-election in a state that has turned more and more blue over the past decade as Republican voters have left the state.  She leads by double digit margins against possible opponents.

Lean Democratic Holds (4)
West Virginia - popular ex-Gov Joe Manchin would appear to be the favorite in this race, but West Virginia has been moving more and more Republican.  Manchin's moderate conservatism should help here, but President Obama is likely to be a drag in a state he lost badly in 2008.
New Mexico - expect a tight race for this open seat in a swing state.  Rep. Martin Heinrich appears likely to be the Democratic nominee and leads by low single digits against the likely GOP opponent, Rep. Heather Wilson.
Ohio - incumbent Sherrod Brown faces a stiff challenge in this traditional swing state from popular Ohio Treasuer Josh Mandel, but still holds a small lead at this stage.
Florida - Bill Nelson is still well liked in Florida, but so is likely opponent Connie Mack.  It should be a close race, with Nelson sporting a modest lead at this point
Virginia - probably the closest contest in the nation at this stage, former Governor Tim Kaine appears to hold a miniscule lead over former Senator George Allen for this open seat.  Watch this race as the bellweather of how the race will go.

Lean Democratic Pick-Up (from Independent 1, from Republican 1)
Connecticut - Joe Lieberman is retiring.  If former Rep. Chris Shays is the GOP nominee, it will be a fight.  If WWE heir Linda McMahon gets the nod, Chris Murphy will cruise to victory.
Maine - a pick-up in Maine appears likely with Olympia Snowe's departure from this heavily Democratic state.  The parties are scrambling to field candidates, so this one could swing in one direction or the other, but appears more likely than not to go blue in November.

Lean Republican Pick-Up (3)
Missouri - Incumbent Claire McCaskill appears to be in trouble in this traditional swing state which has been trending red.  She trails all three potential GOP opponents by small margins.
Montana - Jon Tester faces a stiff challenge in this traditionally red state that he won in the 2006 Democratic sweep from Rep. Denny Rehberg, who leads modestly at the moment.
Wisconsin - popular former Governor Tommy Thompson being in the mix for this open seat tilts it to favor the GOP, even in this blue-leaning state.

Lean Republican Hold (3)
Massachusetts - Scott Brown has been an effective moderate and is surprisingly, leading liberal darling Elizabeth Warren by a small margin in the majority of polls, although this race is among the closest in the nation.
Nevada - appointed incumbent Dean Heller holds a small lead over Rep. Shelley Berkley in this seat that was vacated in disgrace by its previous GOP occupant.
Arizona - this open seat is still taking shape, but on face would favor the GOP in this Republican-leaning state.


Likely Republican Pick-Up (2)
Nebraska - Ben Nelson's departure from this traditionally Republican state gives a golden opportunity to the GOP, who should win this race handily.
North Dakota - this is probably the easiest pick-up this cycle, with long-time Senator Byron Dorgan headed out, the GOP should win easily in this conservative state.


Likely Republican Holds (1)
Texas - an open seat is the GOP's only barrier to this seat being safe, but Lt. Governor David Dewhurst appears to have a comfortable lead against all the potential Democratic candidates.

Safe Republican Holds (5)
Indiana, Mississippi, Wyoming, Tennessee, Utah

This leaves us with a projected Senate composition of:
51 Republicans, 48 Democrats, 1 Independent (51-49 working Republican majority)

Best case for Democrats (win all leans):
45 Republicans, 54 Democrats, 1 Independent

Best case for Republicans (wins all leans):
57 Republicans, 42 Democrats, 1 Independent

So, there are a wide range of possibilities, but Republicans appear slightly favored to gain control of the Senate in November.  Intrade puts their odds of winning control of the Senate at 58%.  Of course, in the event of a 50-50 split, the party winning the Presidential (and therefore Vice-Presidential) race would have working control.

In the House, redistricting will give a significant structural advantage to the GOP.  This is largely for three reasons:
(1) Gerrymandering - in most states, legislatures control drawing the district lines.  The GOP controls more state houses than the Democrats do and can therefore design districts most favorable to GOP candidates.
(2) The Voting Rights Act - ironically, legislation that requires the creation of black majority voting districts, which was designed to bring more black voices to the table in Congress, actually dilutes black Democratic voting power by concentrating black votes in a few districts where they are a majority.
(3) Natural demographics - cities tend to be heavily Democratic while suburbs tend to be modestly Republican.

This leads to situations where you have a few solidly Democratic seats and a lot of leaning Republican seats.  Here are a few easy case studies:
Colorado - is a classic swing state, exactly mirroring national voting patterns.  But of its six congressional seats, 2 heavily favor Democrats and 4 favor Republicans, because Democrats in Denver are concentrated within 2 of the 6 seats.
Florida - Florida is only modestly Republican (+2% more than nationally) but the GOP is favored in 18 out of 25 House races because of concentrating Democratic votes in Miami within a few districts.

All of this gives us a situation where if the parties exactly evenly split the vote in the 2012 elections, it appears likely that the GOP would win at least 234 of the 435 House seats.

Based on this district-by-district model and generic congressional polling results, we can predict overall House election results.

The current composition of the House is:
242 Republicans, 193 Democrats

Republicans are currently +1.8% in generic polling, which would imply the following post-election results:
252 Republicans, 183 Democrats (Republicans +10)

So, at this stage in the game, I would project a strongly Republican congress, a modestly Republican Senate and a Democratic President.  The classic ticket split.

Note: House races projected with the help of the Cook Partisan Voting Index analysis of congressional districts.

Will Democrats stage a comeback in the Senate?  Will the Republicans rally to take the Presidency?  Stay tuned for the next 7 months.

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