Assessing the 2013 Actual vs. Expected Results and Exploring Why

Governor's races are so tricky.  Odd year races are even trickier.  Figuring out turnout in elections where there is no national decisions on the ballot is a bit of a guessing game.  Polls from reliable firms are harder to come by.  Hence, historically my margins of error have been greater in these races.  This year is no different.

Here is the rundown of actual versus projected results:
New Jersey Governor
Predicted Outcome: Christie +24.1%
Actual Result (preliminary): Christie +22.3%
Error in Projection: 1.8% bias for Christie

Virginia Governor
Predicted Outcome: McAullife +6.4%
Actual Result (preliminary): McAullife +2.4%
Error in Projection: 4.0% bias for McAullife

New York Mayor
Predicted Outcome: DeBlasio +41.2%
Actual Result (preliminary): DeBlasio +48.8%
Error in Projection: 7.6% bias for Lhota

First, the good news in the projection accuracy:
* All 3 races were called correctly
* The New Jersey race was actually very well called, considering the margin
* I was correct about Libertarian Robert Sarvis - his support did fade substantially versus the late polling, although he clocked in at 6.5%, above my projected 5-6% (but well below 9% or so that he was polling)

Now, the bad news:
* Like most, I dramatically overcalled the margin of Terry McAullife's victory in Virginia.  He simply underperformed virtually all of the polling.  A special call out to the Emerson College poll, which nailed the margin of the race, although it had Sarvis at a whacky 13%.  All of the other polls had McAullife ahead by far more.

So why did McAullife underperform?

Was it the scourge of Obamacare?  Republicans certainly think so and have been amping up the closing of the race as a precursor to a scorched earth campaign on Obamacare in 2014.  And they have some reason to believe.  Cuccinelli campaigned hard late on Obamacare and the news of the early failures of the website and of cancelled policies were happening right during the time when Cuccinelli was closing the gap.

A counterpoint to this would be depressed turnout.  Turnout for the 2013 Virginia Governor's race is estimated at 37%, down from 42% in the 2009 race, which may have formed the basis for a lot of poling models, and as in most elections, lower turnout tends to favor the Republican.  Still, 2009 was a historically high turn out race and 37% is not out of line for a more typical race.

My conclusion?  Voter turnout model error may be responsible for part of the result, but the Obamacare issue does loom large at the moment.  Whether it will work as an effective 2014 strategy for the GOP will depend largely on what happens in the next 12 months.  The story probably won't be about a broken website by then.  But whether it is about people paying more for policies that they don't want or having greater access, choice and value will decide whether Obamacare is an albatross to the Democrats or a boon.  We'll have to wait and see.

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McAullife Takes the Lead - I'm Calling It

I wanted to see McAullife cross the zero line before I called it, but I'm very comfortable going out ahead of the networks and declaring McAullife the next Governor of Virginia.

The margin will likely ultimately be in the 1-2% range as his margin has slipped somewhat from the initial returns that showed his numbers more in line with President Obama's performance.

But, I can't see any way back for Cuccinelli with 91% of the vote in, McAullife sitting on the right side of the lead (albeit narrowly) and 29% of the vote still left to count in Fairfax County.

Full analysis later in the week on all the races, but in the end:
(1) Christie cruised to victory easily, as expected.  Looks to be at least a 20 point win.
(2) Bill DeBlasio won in an essential non-race.  He leads by 38 points in the early going, but that could go up or down some as the early results are likely not representative.  Results are in line with expectations.
(3) Terry McAullife wins more narrowly than anticipated.  The big question coming out of this week is - why?

Have a good night and if you like this site, tell your friends.

Down to 19,000 Votes

It usually doesn't fail - when I start to express self-doubt, results immediately start to prove out my initial hypothesis.

The margin in the Virginia Governor's race is down to 19,000 votes or 1.1% with 17% of the vote left to count.  The win, Terry McAullife would need to carry 6.5% more of the remaining vote than Ken Cuccinelli, a seemingly very achievable feat, given that Fairfax County is still only at 55% reporting.

Still looks like a McAullife win, although I doubt he will make the 3-4% margin that I had been professing.

Chris Christie's early margin is 17%, but with only a small percent of the vote in.

Oh, by the way, Bill DeBlasio has won, in the biggest no brainer of the night.

Results Still Tracking to a 3-4% McAullife Win

I've been watching the returns closely and I believe the returns still reflect a likely Terry McAullife win in Virginia by 3 to 4% of the vote, despite Cuccinelli's continued lead by over 3% with 57% of the vote counted.

Looking at some key counties:
McAullife is running slightly ahead of Obama's 2012 numbers in Arlington, Falls Church and Alexandria (big Democratic strongholds)
McAullife is running behind Obama's numbers in Norfolk County, another key Democratic stronghold, but still winning the county by 14%
The other big Northern Virginia county, Fairfax County is falling almost exactly in line with 2012.

NJ Governor's Race Called at 8:00:01, VA Early Returns Indicative of McAullife Win

No surprise here - Chris Christie wins easily.  The race was called the second the polls closed.  Exit polling indicated impressive numbers across demographics, winning women by 13 points and holding his own with Latinos, winning a minority, but still impressive 45%.

Don't be deceived by the early vote count with Cuccinelli up 53%-40%.  Early returns in Virginia are very much in line with the 2012 Presidential race, indicating a likely McAullife win.  Returns from counties across the state largely mirror Obama's margins - Obama won Virginia by 4% in 2012.  This would be somewhat closer than the exit polling and my projection, but would still put McAullife in the Governor's mansion.

I'm Back! Let's Get Down to Electing!

First of all, a brief note on my absence from the blogosphere these past couple of months.  My closest friend passed away recently and I have been preoccupied with things that take precedence over discussing the issues of the day.  That is all behind me now (although he will certainly never be forgotten) and it is comforting to come back to a topic that I love: American Politics.

In my absence, I missed most of the budget and debt ceiling fight.  I don't have a lot to add that hasn't already been said - the Republican Party got its head handed to it by having an awful, unachievable strategy.  Their failure in the stand off was about as complete as a failure can be in the political arena.  Having said that, I suspect that the electoral impact of the fight will be far less than most Democrats are hoping.  November 2014 is a LONG time away in political terms and I suspect that this won't be a game-changer with the likely outcome still being Republicans retaining the House and the Democrats narrowly holding the Senate.

I also missed the disaster of an early roll-out of Obamacare.  And it has been a disaster.  0 points for execution.  I will simply make three points around this:
(1) The rollout woes, while important, are not the determination of the success of the program or whether it was a good idea or not.  You can have a great idea poorly executed or an awful idea well executed.  This one is probably more like a mediocre idea poorly executed.
(2) To Republican piling on to the Obamacare solution on premium subsidies, I'm curious - how does Medicare Advantage work?  What about the Paul Ryan budget proposal on Medicaid?  Seems like premium support is pretty much a conservative idea.  A much simpler, liberal idea would have been single-payer.  Single-payer has its own drawbacks, but to bemoan Obamacare's complexity as liberal governance is disingenuous at best and an outright lie at worst.
(3) The "if you like your insurance you can keep it" quote will haunt Obama much more than the poor performance of the website.  There are legitimate reasons under the public-private model advanced in Obamacare to cancel existing policies that don't meet the bill's standard.  But Obama knew this a long time ago.  His promise was an outright lie, and people are likely to remember the lie long after they forget the website hassles.

On to the elections.  Up tonight, we have:
(1) New Jersey Governor - incumbent Republican Chris Christie will absolutely cruise to double digit victory tonight, buoyed by strong support from moderates and independents (including myself.)  The 2016 standard-bearer of sane Republicans (along with possibly Jeb Bush) will have the bully pulpit of the Governor's mansion to speak from.  It will be an epic crushing by a red politican in a blue state.  Take note Republicans - sane candidates like Christie win - wing nuts lose.
Polls close at 8 PM Eastern
Prediction: Christie +24.1% (no, I'm not joking!)

(2) Virginia Governor - Terry McAulife
In what has now become the nation's hottest swing state, one of the ugliest contests between two of the worst candidates for governor in recent memory will draw to a close with former DNC chair Terry McAulife edging out wing nut Republican Ken Cuccinelli (see above about who wins and loses) by solid single digits but failing to win an outright majority as a bunch of fed-up voters dump the two major parties and vote for the Libertarian, Robert Sarvis.  Sarvis is polling in the high single digits, but historically in state races, independents tend to underperform their polling as people break back to the parties late.  It's a non-statistical guess, but I'd wager that Sarvis' election-day support dwindles down to 5-6%.
Polls close at 7 PM Eastern
Prediction: McAulife +6.4%

(3) New York City Mayor
Democrat Bill DeBlasio will cruise to a 30, 40, maybe 45 point victory.  The margin doesn't matter.  The outcome is assured.
Polls close at 9 PM Eastern
Prediction: DeBlasio +41.2%

Lots of other stuff on the ballot including marijuana taxation in Colorado and a minimum wage hike in New Jersey.  I'll keep you posted throughout the night.

20 minutes until the first returns....