Lessons from the Primaries and PA-12, 1 Easy Step to Squandering a Lead in Connecticut, Squeaking Through a Cloture Motion

What Happened Tuesday
Tuesday's primaries were interesting, although in my mind, none of the results unexpected.

First, and probably most significantly, Rep. Joe Sestak defeated incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter for the Democratic nomination for Specter's Pennsyvlania Senate seat. Poor old Snarlin' Arlen. A lifelong moderate, he realized earlier this year that a Republican Party that never really liked him all that much had shifted to the right and was finally ready to dump him. So, he switched parties and joined the Dems, amidst promises of support from the President and the Democratic Establishment. The only problem is, the President doesn't get to vote in Democratic Primaries in Pennsylvania. And the Democratic voters in PA couldn't find a compelling reason to vote for a guy that they had spent the last 24 years voting against in general elections. So, in place of a moderate, they nominated a liberal. It's a shame that the US Senate is going to lose a moderate at just the time when more moderate voices are needed (it will either have a liberal in Sestak or a conservative in Republican Pat Toomey), but it's not that unexpected.

In terms of the general election race, Sestak has surged in the polls since the primary and now holds a modest lead over Toomey. This certainly is shaping up to be one of the more competitive and interesting races of the 2008 cycle.

Secondly, the special election in Pennsylvania's 12th district provided a clear-cut victory for a moderate (some would even say conservative) Democrat over a conservative Republican. PA-12 is a difficult district to charecterize, having voted 8 points more Republican than the nation in 2008 but 5 points more Democratic than the nation in 2004. It is one of those districts in Appalchia where President Obama significantly underperformed, but has a large advantage for Democrats in party registration. It is a socially conservative district but economically more liberal. And there was a Democratic Senate primary going on in Pennsylvania that may have aided Democratic turnout. Combine all that and Democrat Mark Critz' victory on Tuesday was a modestly positive bellweather for the Dems, but not something that should automatically make them feel good about November. And it is a district that will have a rematch in less than 6 months. It is worth noting as well, that this is yet another loss for the tea party movement. The tea party has yet to have one of their own actually win a general election.

In Kentucky, the tea party did win a primary as libertarian Rand Paul won the Republican nomination for the Senate. This is a race that the GOP should win, but Paul presents some unique challenges. First, he has some pretty radical views, such as the view that the government should not require businesses not to racially discriminate. It is an honestly held belief, he doesn't believe in much government intervention of any sort, but still problematic. Secondly, he is not particularly in line with the social conservatism of Kentucky, favoring libertarian principles like marijuana legalization. But, this is Kentucky, one of the reddest states in the country. So, Paul will certainly be favored to be the tea party's first real general election victory, but this is not a lead pipe cinch.

In Arkansas, Senator Blanche Lincoln, already in big trouble in the general election, is evidentally also in trouble from the left in the primary. She failed to get 50% of the vote and will face a very tight run-off.

3 senate primaries and not one establishment candidate with a clear cut victory. If there was any doubt that the voters are out for blood this year, this should seal the deal.

How to Blow a 40 Point Lead
If you have a 40 point lead in a Senate race in Connecticut, you just keep your mouth shut, stay on script and don't create any waves, right?

But what if you wanted to plot a way to blow that lead? Can you think of a better way then making false statements about being a Vietnam War veteran, when, in fact, you actively sought deferrments from being drafted?

Richard Blumenthal has managed to create a potentially competitive race out of one he was going to win in a walk. What an idiot. He may still win, he has a history of goodwill and popularity in a deep blue state. But telling offensive lies in a year when the voters are looking to throw out anyone that even resembles an incumbent is a good place to start if you want to lose.

Note: I will be publishing a complete updated 2010 rundown within the next week or so.

Really? A 60-40 Vote?
It took two tries and some arm twisting, but the Democrats were finally able to invoke cloture on the manager's amendment to move forward with the financial reform bill. Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI) opposed cloture as he felt the measure did not go far enough. The Maine Moderates, Sen's Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins (both R) crossed the line to vote for the measure. Other than that, it was a strictly party line vote.

Is the GOP just following my strategy of running clock to get to the mid-terms or are they really going to oppose financial reform on final passage? I can't imagine anyone facing a re-election fight that is even remotely competitive would want to have a no vote on record. But I'm starting to wonder.

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My Favorite 10 Political Stories of 2009

It's the end of the year, time to look back at the year in politics. I have no scientific criteria for choosing these stories, but my general criteria are the historic significance of the event, the political impact, the national impact and the cultural impact.

Here are my top 10:
10. Arlen Specter switches parties
In a complete about-face, longtime Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter switched from the GOP to the Democrats. His official reasoning was fairly tortured...he was okay being a Republican for the last 8 years but all of sudden this spring they became to rightist? This story was at least 6 years in the making as the right has been attempting to ouster Specter, who was (and I think still is?) both fiscally and socially moderate. And the Democrats were more than happy to have vote number 60, although Specter wasn't given all of his seniority for his time as a Republican. Specter's departure from the GOP essentially left the Maine duo of Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe as the last true Senate GOP moderates.

9. The Blago Affair
Chicago corruption is nothing new, but Blago took it to a whole new level. His refusal to leave office, his flaunting his nose at party leaders by appointing Roland Burris to the Senate (who, incidentally, was needed to cast the 60th vote for Health Care cloture), his omnipresence in the media. It just doesn't get any better than this if you follow politics.

8. Sarah Palin quits as Alaska Governor and Hits the Blogosphere and Book Circuit
A bizzarre departure for the Alaska Governor...why did she quit again? She didn't like Freedom of Information requests? At any rate, the Ex-Governor quickly rekindled her GOP star, attacking health care "death panels", selling books like crazy and generally infuriating the left and revving up the tea baggers.

7. The Tea-Party Movement
Whether you think it is a Fox News conspiracy or an organic uprising of populists, the tea-party movement and the crashing of town halls this summer had an undeniable impact on the trajectory of both the health care debate and the political tone in America.

6. GOP wins in New Jersey and Virginia
Our only significant political contests saw Bob McDonnell and Chris Christie sweep into office amidst both national concenrs that Democrats were overreaching and local races that saw them square off against weak opponents. The GOP shows it still has life in it headed into 2010.

5. Fort Hood Shootings
Those awful events reminded us both of the heroics of our soldiers and the fragility, as well as the continued tensions between the Islamic religion and our culture.

4. Attempted bombing on a Northwest Flight
Lest we forget that there are still people in the world that want nothing more than to kill Americans, we were reminded this December after a failed bombing attempt on a Detroit bound Northwest flight from Amsterdam. We are also reminded again that all of the airport security added since 2001 has been costly window-dressing and that we can NEVER be absolutely safe in a free society.

3. The Government Takes Over GM
The biggest car maker in the United States becomes majority owned by the government after one of the largest and quickest bankruptcies in US history.

2. Senate passes Health Care reform on a party line vote
The most significant piece of social welfare legislation since LBJ's great society moves a step closer to reality. Call it socialism or call it human rights, but it's hard to argue its significance.

1. Barack Obama sworn in as President
Less than 8 years after September 11th, a man with the middle name Hussein was sworn into office. Less than 50 years after the end of segregation an African-American is sworn in as President, buoyed by victories in 3 southern states. I said it on election night and I'll say it again...only in this country would this even have been a possibility.

Lots of honorable mentions:
Joe Wilson's "You Lie!"
The Stimulus Bill Passing
Edward Kennedy's Death
New York's 23rd
Goldman Sach's bonuses
and many, many more.

Happy New Year! Lots of races to cover headed into 2010. We are closing in on the Massachusetts special election, the Illinois Senate primary and much, much more. 470 races of national significance next year! I look forward to spending the next 365 days talking with you about it.