The Big 2012 Map: Stable But Divergent National Polling, Could There Be a Hurricane Sandy Effect?

Days Until The Election: 9
Projected Popular Vote Total: Romney +0.1% (Romney down 0.1% from 4 days ago)
Projected Electoral Vote Total: Obama 281, Romney 257 (Obama up 4 from 4 days ago)
Current Betting Odds: Obama 63%, Romney 37% (Obama up 3% from 4 days ago)

As I alluded to in my shorter write-up yesterday, the numbers really stopped moving after the effect of Romney's first debate performance was fully factored into the race.  The last two Presidential debates and the VP debate, along with all the associated news cycle, are not moving the race much.

Today, we see some positive developments for both sides.  Barack Obama flips New Hampshire back into his column, along with its 4 electoral votes.  On the plus side for Romney, Minnesota has inched closer over the past few weeks and now falls into our "Leans Obama" category, at least theoretically putting it in play.  Neither campaign has events planned in Minnesota that include members of the ticket, although the Obama campaign did recently make a $500K ad buy in the state, although they claim it is in border cities and designed to reach Wisconsin voters, where both campaigns are fighting hard.  I don't seriously consider the possibility of a Minnesota victory for Romney unless the national race breaks hard in his favor in the waning days of the campaign, at which point, it won't be that relevant anyhow.  In other words, Minnesota is unlikely to be a "tipping point" state, as Romney will only win it if he has already comfortably won key states like Ohio and Wisconsin.

The divergence of national poling continues.  On one wing, we have the Gallup poll, which continues to show Mitt Romney with a 5% national lead.  On the other extreme, you have the RAND poll, which shows President Obama up by 6%.  Neither of those results seem particularly likely, as the breadth of other polling shows a much closer national race.  The remaining 6 national polls show somewhere between a 3% lead for Romney and a 2% lead for Obama, with our weighting methodology giving Romney a razor-thin lead in the national vote.

Analyzing the swing states, I find it is instructive to look at several factors - the amount of state polling that has been taking place, the consistency of the results of that polling, the historical reliability of polling, the current betting odds in the state and the investment of resources by the campaigns in those states.

Let's run down the states within 5 points and analyze:
Arizona:
Breadth of polling - very low - the last poll released had a sample end date of October 10th - in other words, we have no poling data from the past two weeks and scant data even before then.
Consistency of polling - low - the last three polls have an 11 point spread - all the way from Romney +9% to Obama +2%
Historical polling reliability - medium - Arizona polling has been about average in terms of projecting actual results - population and demographic shifts happen at a moderate pace and the large non-English speaking population presents some polling challenges
Campaign resource investment: low - neither campaign has events planned in Arizona, meaning they probably believe it is relatively safer for Romney
Intrade Odds - Romney >90% (not enough betting volume to get an accurate exact number)
Prognosis - the campaigns are more likely to be right than not that this one is in Romney's camp, but the scant and divergent polling give Arizona at least some shock potential on election day.  I'd like to see some more polls here.  My degree of confidence in Romney's lead is moderate in the absence of fresh data.

Florida:
Breadth of polling - high - there have been 10 polls conducted here in the past two weeks
Consistency of polling - high - polls from the past week show only a 3 point spread, from Romney +2% to Romney +5%
Historical polling reliability - medium - Florida's demographics and turnout variability present some challenges, but polling has historically been within a few points of the actual result.
Campaign resource investment: medium - both campaigns are spending a lot on TV in key markets, but campaign events have been decreasing, perhaps recognizing that Florida has been moving to Romney and the tipping point is elsewhere.
Intrade Odds: Romney 74%
Prognosis - my degree of confidence in a small Romney lead is high.

Virginia:
Breadth of polling - high - there have been 6 polls conducted here in the past two weeks
Consistency of polling - medium - polls from this week have a 6 point spread, from Romney +4% to Obama +2%
Historical polling reliability - high - Virginia's demographics are stable, turnout is consistent and poll results generally get it pretty close on election day.
Campaign resource investment - high - Virginia is drawing a lot of top-of-the-ticket campaigning and both campaigns clearly view it as very much in play.
Intrade Odds: Romney 52%
Prognosis - a true toss-up, but likely one where Romney has a slim lead

Colorado:
Breadth of polling - high - there have been 6 polls conducted here in the past two weeks
Consistency of polling - low - polls from this week show an 8 point spread, from Romney +4% to Obama +4%
Historical polling reliability - medium - there are significant transient population factors and turnout variability to contend with in Colorado.
Campaign resource investment - high - both campaigns are investing a lot of time and money in the state.
Intrade Odds: Even (50%/50%)
Prognosis - another true toss-up and one that is hard to call.

Iowa
Breadth of polling - high - there have been 6 polls conducted here in the past two weeks
Consistency of polling - medium - polls from this week show a 5 point spread, from Romney +1% to Obama +4%
Historical polling reliability - high - stable demographics and consistent turnout make this a relatively easier state to project
Campaign resource investment - moderate - both campaigns are spending in the Des Moines market and dropping in on the way to other mid-west swing states.
Intrade Odds: Obama 67%
Prognosis - it appears likely Obama has a modest lead here

New Hampshire
Breadth of polling - high - there have been 7 polls conducted here in the past two weeks
Consistency of polling - low - polls show an 11 point spread, from Romney +2% to Obama +9% in the past week
Historical polling reliability - low - New Hampshire is demographically stable, but the large contingent of independents have made it very tough to project (think 2008 Democratic primary)
Campaign resource investment - high - for a 4 electoral vote state, New Hampshire is getting disproportionate attention.
Intrade Odds: Obama 62%
Prognosis - very hard to pick a leader here and definitely more subject to a late swing than other states.

Nevada
Breadth of polling - high - there have been 7 polls conducted here in the past two weeks
Consistency of polling - high - there is only a 3 point spread across the entire two week period, from Obama +1% to Obama +4%
Historical polling reliability - low - Nevada's large transient population, especially in Las Vegas, makes this a very hard state to call - most of the polls had Sharon Angle beating Harry Reid by a few points on election eve 2010 and got it wrong.
Campaign resource investment - medium - there is a lot of TV spend but few campaign visits, perhaps as Nevada is not particularly close to the rest of the battlegrounds.
Intrade Odds: Obama 83%
Prognosis - all the evidence seems to suggest a consistent Obama lead, but historical inaccuracy of Nevada polling gives some pause.  Bias has tended historically to be Pro-Republican in polling, so I still give Obama the edge here.

Ohio
Breadth of polling - very high - there have been 14 polls conducted here in the past two weeks
Consistency of polling - high - of all 14 of those polls, there is only a 5 point spread, from even to Obama +5%
Historical polling reliability - high - Ohio has stable demographics and fewer independents than most swing states - polling tends to be highly reliable.
Campaign resource investment - very high - 4 of the 10 most spent markets for TV are in Ohio and it is the most-visited state by both Presidential and VP candidates.
Intrade Odds: Obama 68%
Prognosis - Obama clearly has a small but meaningful lead here in my opinion.

Wisconsin
Breadth of polling - medium - there have been 5 polls conducted here in the past two weeks
Consistency of polling - medium - there has been a 6 point spread among the 5 polls, from even to Obama +6%
Historical polling reliability - high - similar to Ohio in many ways, pollsters generally get in right in Wisconsin.
Campaign resource investment - high - Romney has upped his game here and both campaigns are making lots of stops and ad buys.
Intrade Odds: Obama 72%
Prognosis - Obama seems to hold a small but meaningful lead here, but I would like more polls to validate.

Pennsylvania
Breadth of polling - high - there have been 7 polls conducted here in the past two weeks
Consistency of polling - high - over the entire two week period, the spread is only 4 points, from Obama +3% to Obama +7%
Historical polling reliability - high - Pennsylvania fits the same mold as Ohio and Wisconsin
Campaign resource investment - low - Romney does not appear to be making a serious play for Pennsylvania
Intrade Odds: Obama >90% (volume too low to get accurate odds)
Prognosis - Obama seems highly likely to win here, barring some major national shift.

Minnesota
Breadth of polling - medium - there have been 4 polls conducted here in the past two weeks
Consistency of polling - medium - there is a 7 point spread in the polls, from Obama +3% to Obama +10%
Historical polling reliability - medium - Minnesota has some of the independent streak of New Hampshire (see Jesse Ventura), leading to some late shifts that are hard to poll for, but in aggregate polls have generally been about as accurate here as nationally.
Campaign resource investment - low - Obama's small ad buy aside, there isn't much going on here.  Romney seems to be conceding this one to the President.
Intrade Odds: Obama>90% (volume too low to get accurate odds)
Prognosis - Obama appears highly likely to win here.

Based on all of this, in my estimation, Arizona and Florida appear highly likely to go to Romney, Minnesota and Pennsylvania seem highly likely to go to Obama and Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin are the 6 states where the final days of the election are likely to be fought.

If we give Romney Arizona and Florida and give Obama Minnesota and Pennsylvania and apply the intrade odds to the remaining states, we get a base of 237 electoral votes for Obama and 235 for Romney.  Applying Intrade odds for the remaining states in a random model, we get the following outcome:

Obama Wins Electoral College: 74%
Romney Wins Electoral College: 24%
Electoral College Tie (Likely Romney Victory in House): 2%

The possibility of a tie means that we cannot ignore Maine and Nebraska, the two states that split their electoral vote by congressional district.  Last time around, Obama won 1 of Nebraska's 5 electoral vote by taking its most moderate district.  He appears to be well behind this time.  This time, Romney is hoping to take 1 of Maine's two congressional districts, the 1st district.  He appears to be behind as well, but within striking distance, possibly trailing by only 3% or 4%.  This will only matter in a very, very close electoral college, but as you can see from this model, that is a possibility.

Hurricane Sandy Effect?
It's a good thing that Hurricane Sandy is projected to hit this Monday and Tuesday instead of next Monday and Tuesday.  If it had hit next week, it would have had a dramatic impact on voter turnout and created a major disruption at just the wrong time to people making an important election choice.

As things stand, the effect will likely be very little unless there are still major power outages on election day.  While this is possible, it appears unlikely, as utilities will have a month to get the power back on.  Stay tuned - I'm right in the path of the storm in Southern New Jersey, so if you don't hear from me for a while, it's because I don't have power to post my blog.

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The Big 2012 Electoral Map - Why It's Really Close and Why I Believe Obama Will Probably (But Not Certainly) Win, Foreign Policy Yawn, The Split Vote Scenarios

Days Until the Election: 13
Projected Popular Vote Total: Romney +0.2% (up 1.3% in the past 4 days)
Projected Electoral Vote Total: Obama 277, Romney 261 (Romney up 9 in the past 4 days)
Current Betting Odds: Obama 60%, Romney 40% (Romney +1% in the past 4 days)

It's close.  It's very close.  Certainly closer than 2008.  Whether it winds up closer than 2004, when President Bush won re-election on the basis of a 2.1% margin in Ohio (New Mexico and Iowa were actually narrower, but winning both of those would not have put John Kerry over the top) remains to be seen.  It would require a rare twist of fate for it to be as close as in 2000, when President Bush won his first term by officially less than 0.01% of the votes cast in Florida.

But it's close.  Close enough that even if this were election eve, I wouldn't be 100% confident that my model would correctly project the winner.  Certainly close enough that with nearly two weeks left until the election, I can't predict with any certainty.

But President Obama is still ahead.

Consider the case for Obama's re-election:
(1) President Obama has not trailed on my electoral map the entire election cycle.  Not for a day.
(2) President Obama has not trailed in the betting odds on Intrade once.  Not for a day.
(3) The electoral map favors Obama - even when he trails modestly in the national polls, he maintains his electoral lead.

I'm not saying Romney couldn't win.  He could peak at exactly the right time - on election day.  Democratic voter turnout could be much lower than the pollsters are modeling.  We could still have an October surprise that could wildly swing the race. 

But in spite of Romney's surge following the first debate, Obama is still where I would place my bet today.  We'll see if I'm singing a different tune in two weeks.

What should give Republicans some encouragement is that Romney's paths to 270 have clearly widened.  Ohio is still by far the easiest path and expect that to continue to be the most fought over battleground.  But Romney could also win by holding what he has (which now includes a razor-thin lead in Colorado) plus picking up Iowa and Nevada.  Or he could lose all 3 of those states but win by picking up Wisconsin.  Or, in a very low shot, he could pull off a huge upset in Pennsylvania.  But all those paths are less probable than the one showing in the chart above.

Who Schedules These Debates?
What the heck was the commission on Presidential debates thinking?  Foreign policy as the theme for the closing debate?

I'm not saying that foreign policy doesn't matter.  Certainly how we deal with trade with China, Iran's nuclear ambitions, Israel's place in the middle east, Iraq, Afghanistan and a whole host of other issues matter.

But recent polling indicate that 6% of voters consider foreign policy their top priority in this election.  6%.  Why would we make the final debate that voters see something that only 6% care about.  How about a debate solely on the economy?

And what a horrible set of questions on foreign policy.  How can you have a foreign policy debate without a single question on Mexico, our immediate neighbor that has been ravaged by cartels?  Not a single question on the Eurozone crisis, the single greatest threat to the world economy?  90 minutes on a topic virtually no voters prioritize and they don't even ask the most important questions.

At any rate, the poor topic choice essentially made the debate of very minimal impact.  Polling indicated that President Obama modestly won the debate in the eyes of the majority, including myself.  But it won't be a poll mover - Romney passed the bar as Commander-in-Chief with his command of the facts on the stage and beyond that, few will be swayed by competing answers on Libya.

Split Scenarios
Most Presidential elections end the same way - one candidate gets the most popular votes and wins the electoral vote.

In very close races, however, interesting scenarios emerge.

(1) The Popular Vote and Electoral Vote Split
This is quite a plausible scenario this year.  I show Mitt Romney up by 0.2% and President Obama up in the electoral college.  Even Romney were up 2%, assuming that 1.8% movement was evenly spread across the country, he would pick up only Iowa and would still lose the electoral vote 271-267.

I am personally licking my lips at that prospect.  Following the split result in 2000, when President Bush lost the national popular vote but narrowly (quite narrowly) won the electoral vote, there was an outcry on the left for electoral reform.  Since then, 9 states, all blue states, representing 132 electoral votes have passed laws enacting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, which would award that state's electoral votes to the national winner if states representing 270 electoral votes sign on, meaning that if states totaling 270 electoral votes signed onto the compact, the winner of the national popular vote would win the election.

The reason no Republican state has signed on is obvious - the electoral college was a structural advantage to the GOP in 2000.  If that ceases to be the case, we would have a shot at real electoral reform.

Wouldn't it be nice if candidates had to campaign somewhere besides Ohio, Florida and Virginia to win an election?  Shouldn't there by campaign rallies in Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, Dallas, Atlanta and all the other major cities that get shunned each year because they aren't in swing states?

On a related note, to validate to divergence of the state and national polls, I ran my current state projections through the 2008 vote model to see how the national vote might come out if the state projections are right.  The results of that were that if all of my state predictions were exactly correct and turnout exactly mirrored the 2008 election, President Obama would win by 0.8% in the national popular vote, or a 1% divergence from my current actual popular vote projection.

This is well within the margin of error and also bear in mind that for states that are not close, the projection is based on scant polling data, increasing the propensity for error in those states.  A 1% divergence fundamentally confirms my projection:
* The national vote is close to even
* President Obama is ahead in the electoral college

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And if you think my predictions are full of it - bet on Mitt Romney on Intrade - you can get good odds.