The lead is just swapping back and forth as counties favorable to each of the candidates come in. With half of the vote in, it is a virtual tie between Santorum, who is the nominal leader and Romney, with both at 24%. Ron Paul is currently in third, but with less than 2% separating him from first.
It will likely be very late tonight before a winner can be called. In terms of delegates, the differences will not be meaningful. In terms of psychology, they could be huge. A Rick Santorum first place finish vaults him into the top tier going forward (probably not in New Hampshire, but certainly in Florida and South Carolina) whereas a third place finish makes him an interesting also-ran. A Ron Paul win breathes life into his campaign to make a run for independents in New Hampshire. A third place finish makes him just an interesting side show.
All there is left to do now is just sit back and watch the votes.
Have a great night...full recap tomorrow.
Showing posts with label Iowa Caucuses. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iowa Caucuses. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
A Romney Wall to the East, a Santorum/Paul Checkerboard in the West
It's a tale of two states in Iowa, which is very similar to 2008. In 2008, Mitt Romney won heavily in the Eastern, more rural part of the state. That time around, Mike Huckabee consolidated the central and western parts of the state to win it. This time, it looks like a checkerboard of Santorum and Paul counties.
Will one of the two of them get enough of the Huckabee plains to win it?
Will one of the two of them get enough of the Huckabee plains to win it?
Does the Firmness of Ron Paul's Support Fortell a Big Win?
Ron Paul's supporters tend to be amongst the most loyal in politics. If he was slightly ahead in the exit polling, is it possible he could pull off a big win tonight?
It's quite possible I had this race pegged very wrong. I'm recalling how good Paul is at getting people to show up for Straw Polls and a caucus isn't that dissimilar. We should have a good feel for the race within the hour.
It's quite possible I had this race pegged very wrong. I'm recalling how good Paul is at getting people to show up for Straw Polls and a caucus isn't that dissimilar. We should have a good feel for the race within the hour.
Neck and Neck in the Early Going
With 4% of the vote in, which is still way too early to project a conclusion, Santorum, Paul and Rommey are tightly bunched at 24%, 24% and 22% of the vote respectively. The other candidates are behind considerably.
Full Entrance Poll Results Shows Narrow Paul Lead
Well within the margin of error and people can still change their minds, but good news in the totality of the entrance polls for Ron Paul.
Full Poll Results:
Ron Paul 24%
Mitt Romney 23%
Rick Santorum 19%
Newt Gingrich 13%
Rick Perry 11%
Michele Bachmann 7%
Jon Huntsman 1%
Early returns are flowing in, but the numbers are way too small to derive any meaningful information from. Santorum leads slightly in the very early returns.
Newt and Mitt are basically even on Intrade at around 40. Rick Santorum has recovered slightly from his low of 12 to near 20.
Full Poll Results:
Ron Paul 24%
Mitt Romney 23%
Rick Santorum 19%
Newt Gingrich 13%
Rick Perry 11%
Michele Bachmann 7%
Jon Huntsman 1%
Early returns are flowing in, but the numbers are way too small to derive any meaningful information from. Santorum leads slightly in the very early returns.
Newt and Mitt are basically even on Intrade at around 40. Rick Santorum has recovered slightly from his low of 12 to near 20.
Santorum Betting Odds Crashing
Santorum's chances appear to be fading as a result of these early polls. He is down to 12% on Intrade, with Romney and Paul still showing strongly.
It stands to reason - if Santorum was going to win, he'd likely have his passionate supporters show up early.
It stands to reason - if Santorum was going to win, he'd likely have his passionate supporters show up early.
Early Arrival Poll: Romney and Paul Out Front
Early entrance poll results:
Mitt Romney 24%
Ron Paul 24%
Rick Santorum 18%
Newt Gingrich 13%
Rick Perry 11%
Michelle Bachmann 7%
Jon Huntsman 1%
Bear in mind that these are poll results of the early arrivers to the caucuses and likely represent the most passionate supporters as the weaker supporters tend to show up later. It also does not project any "night of" switchers.
Overall, obviously very good news for Romney and Paul nonetheless.
Mitt Romney 24%
Ron Paul 24%
Rick Santorum 18%
Newt Gingrich 13%
Rick Perry 11%
Michelle Bachmann 7%
Jon Huntsman 1%
Bear in mind that these are poll results of the early arrivers to the caucuses and likely represent the most passionate supporters as the weaker supporters tend to show up later. It also does not project any "night of" switchers.
Overall, obviously very good news for Romney and Paul nonetheless.
Gamblers Give Ron Paul More Credit
Current Intrade odds:
Romney to Win: 42%
Ron Paul to Win: 28%
Rick Santorum to Win: 30%
I guess the betting public gives Ron Paul much better odds than I do.
Romney to Win: 42%
Ron Paul to Win: 28%
Rick Santorum to Win: 30%
I guess the betting public gives Ron Paul much better odds than I do.
No Surprises in the Top 3
The doors have just closed at the Iowa Caucuses. Early entrance poll data indicate that the top 3 (in some order) are Rick Santorum, Ron Paul and Mitt Romney, in no particular order. This confirms the possible scenarios that I discussed earlier - it certainly doesn't appear we will have a dramatic upset.
Let's see how the actual results roll in.
Let's see how the actual results roll in.
Tonight Is The Night
Tonight, for at least a while, power gets taken out of the hands of pundits and into the hands of registered voters as the Iowa Caucuses kick off the election season. I'll be posting live updates as events unfold.
First, a primer on the caucuses:
Who May Participate: Any registered Republican willing to show up on a Tuesday night, declare openly their support for a candidate and invest three hours or so in the process.
How It Works:
(1) At each caucus precinct, 15 minutes are allocated to a representative of each campaign to speak on behalf of candidates. Typically well funded campaigns have representatives at virtually every location, whereas some of the more shoe-string campaigns may focus only on more populated areas.
(2) A first ballot is tallied with the preference vote of each party member in attendance recorded. In some precincts, this is done by paper ballot, in others by a show of hands or by standing under a candidate's sign.
(3) Based on the first round results, candidates receiving an insufficient percentage of the vote to warrant a delegate are eliminated from contention and a new round of balloting ensues, with the supporters of the now-eliminated candidates free to join any of the candidates still left.
(4) The results of the second round of balloting are used to award delegates.
Obviously you can see the inherent unpredictability of these events versus a primary. Whose supporters will show up and invest the considerable commitment? What will happen with supporters of eliminated candidates? How will speeches and friends and neighbors sway the more-public voting?
Handicapping the night, there appear to be three viable scenarios that could happen:
(1) The Romney Squeaker
Mitt is able to maintain the 25%ish support that he has been steadily holding in the polls and eeks out a victory over both Ron Paul and Rick Santorum.
(2) The Momentum Play
Rick Santorum's surge from virtually nothing two weeks ago continues and he pulls of an improbable upset. This could well come into play if some of the lower-polling conservatives, such as Michelle Bachmann and Rick Perry are knocked out of contention for delegates in some precincts in the first round of balloting, freeing them up to support someone else. One would presume that they would break disproportionately for Santorum.
(3) The Passion Play
Ron Paul's avid supporters show up in far greater numbers than the lukewarm support for Romney and Paul outperforms recent polls slightly and pulls off the upset.
My prediction? I think Scenario 1 is about a 60% probability, scenario 2 about a 30% probability and scenario 3 a 10% probability. Caucuses are tough to poll for, Santorum is rising and Paul's supporter are passionate, but I'm amazed how often, in spite of all the unpredictable dynamics, these things seem to resemble the late polls in the final tally. But certainly any of them are possible.
So what would each scenario mean?
Scenario 1 portends a very high probability of a Romney nomination. He is almost sure to win New Hampshire in this scenario. Newt Gingrich would likely stay in to make a stand in South Carolina and Florida, where he is still polling more strongly and Ron Paul would stay on, but as more of a sideshow than a serious candidate.
Scenario 2 could create a real horse race. Other conservatives such as Bachmann and Perry may well withdraw from the race, consolidating the "not Mitt" vote behind one candidate. Keep in mind though, that because of his late rise, Santorum hasn't really been vetted or taken heat the way the other candidates have. I still like Mitt in all the scenarios, but this scenario is by far the most intriguing of the bunch.
Scenario 3 could well catapult Ron Paul into contention in libertarian New Hampshire, but even if he wins a one-two in the first two states, does he have any real shot to broaden his appeal in other, later venues? It's doubtful although this would not doubt leave him in the spotlight until the end and assure that Romney does not wrap up the nomination quickly.
Stay tuned...it's going to be a fun night.
First, a primer on the caucuses:
Who May Participate: Any registered Republican willing to show up on a Tuesday night, declare openly their support for a candidate and invest three hours or so in the process.
How It Works:
(1) At each caucus precinct, 15 minutes are allocated to a representative of each campaign to speak on behalf of candidates. Typically well funded campaigns have representatives at virtually every location, whereas some of the more shoe-string campaigns may focus only on more populated areas.
(2) A first ballot is tallied with the preference vote of each party member in attendance recorded. In some precincts, this is done by paper ballot, in others by a show of hands or by standing under a candidate's sign.
(3) Based on the first round results, candidates receiving an insufficient percentage of the vote to warrant a delegate are eliminated from contention and a new round of balloting ensues, with the supporters of the now-eliminated candidates free to join any of the candidates still left.
(4) The results of the second round of balloting are used to award delegates.
Obviously you can see the inherent unpredictability of these events versus a primary. Whose supporters will show up and invest the considerable commitment? What will happen with supporters of eliminated candidates? How will speeches and friends and neighbors sway the more-public voting?
Handicapping the night, there appear to be three viable scenarios that could happen:
(1) The Romney Squeaker
Mitt is able to maintain the 25%ish support that he has been steadily holding in the polls and eeks out a victory over both Ron Paul and Rick Santorum.
(2) The Momentum Play
Rick Santorum's surge from virtually nothing two weeks ago continues and he pulls of an improbable upset. This could well come into play if some of the lower-polling conservatives, such as Michelle Bachmann and Rick Perry are knocked out of contention for delegates in some precincts in the first round of balloting, freeing them up to support someone else. One would presume that they would break disproportionately for Santorum.
(3) The Passion Play
Ron Paul's avid supporters show up in far greater numbers than the lukewarm support for Romney and Paul outperforms recent polls slightly and pulls off the upset.
My prediction? I think Scenario 1 is about a 60% probability, scenario 2 about a 30% probability and scenario 3 a 10% probability. Caucuses are tough to poll for, Santorum is rising and Paul's supporter are passionate, but I'm amazed how often, in spite of all the unpredictable dynamics, these things seem to resemble the late polls in the final tally. But certainly any of them are possible.
So what would each scenario mean?
Scenario 1 portends a very high probability of a Romney nomination. He is almost sure to win New Hampshire in this scenario. Newt Gingrich would likely stay in to make a stand in South Carolina and Florida, where he is still polling more strongly and Ron Paul would stay on, but as more of a sideshow than a serious candidate.
Scenario 2 could create a real horse race. Other conservatives such as Bachmann and Perry may well withdraw from the race, consolidating the "not Mitt" vote behind one candidate. Keep in mind though, that because of his late rise, Santorum hasn't really been vetted or taken heat the way the other candidates have. I still like Mitt in all the scenarios, but this scenario is by far the most intriguing of the bunch.
Scenario 3 could well catapult Ron Paul into contention in libertarian New Hampshire, but even if he wins a one-two in the first two states, does he have any real shot to broaden his appeal in other, later venues? It's doubtful although this would not doubt leave him in the spotlight until the end and assure that Romney does not wrap up the nomination quickly.
Stay tuned...it's going to be a fun night.
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