Obama Tries to Run the Clock, Mccain Walks a Tightrope

No State Changes, Obama leads Mccain 338-200 Most Battleground Shifts in Obama's Favor
Days Until the Election: 23

Really not much going on in the electoral map and most of what is happening is marginally in Obama's favor.

Key Battlegrounds
Missouri -- no change -- remains narrowly in Mccain's column
North Carolina -- no change -- this site has never called this one for Obama and continues not to do so, although this one remains extremely close

Serious Battlegrounds
Virginia -- demoted from key to serious -- Obama opens up a little breathing room here
West Virginia -- promoted from fringe to serious -- this is still all on the basis of one poll, and I would like to see more before I believe the outcome is seriously in doubt, but Mccain is obviously concerned enough to dispatch Sarah Palin here

Substantial Battlegrounds
Florida -- demoted from serious to substantial -- Obama is clearly ahead, but it is close
Ohio -- promoted from somewhat to substantial -- Mccain makes some small inroads here

Somewhat Battleground
Colorado -- no change

Fringe Battleground
Nevada -- demoted from somewhat to fringe

Note: Indiana and New Hampshire are both dropped at battlegrounds, I have retained both as potential battlegrounds for now, although Mccain needs some quick progress in New Hampshire to keep it in play.

Potential Battlegrounds
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Indiana
New Hampshire

The Run Out the Clock Strategy vs. The High-Wire Act
For the first time in the general election campaign, Barack Obama appears to be running clock. He is not on the Sunday talk circuit, he is not coming out with bold new ideas. He IS campaigning aggressively in key battleground states and spending boatloads of cash on ads (one particularly interesting ad buy discussed later.)

Meanwhile, John Mccain is trying to walk a tightrope at high altitudes. He clearly wants to run or at the very least appear to run a noble campaign and control the increasingly ugly and racist statements coming out of supporters. To be fair to Mccain, he can't control what supporters he has never met say and he has performed well trying to diffuse the raw emotion, but part of it is a by-product of the attacks his campaign has been putting forward. The Bill Ayers story has received a lot of press, but has yet to cut into Obama's lead in any real way, which I have to admit surprises me a little. Part of the issue for Mccain, is that Ayers crimes are so old and either forgotten or never experienced by most voters. And the Ayers of today doesn't look like the stereotype of a terrorist today.

Mccain is focusing resources on a long-shot bid at Pennsylvania. Clearly he doesn't believe he can run the board in the current list of battleground states and would rather take a big gamble trying to win a big electoral prize. He has a big gap to close and will still need some of the other battlegrounds (especially Florida and Ohio) to have a shot.

Mccain needs a game-changer and he hasn't found it yet. The clock is ticking.

The October 29th Ad Buy
Barack Obama is buying a half hour of network primetime on every major network, just before the eleciton. This is a huge, bold move and one that I could see paying substantial dividends. Obama will have a half hour unfiltered that most people will watch, either because it is pre-empting their favorite show or because they are naturally curious about what he is going to say. He will have a mini convention in essence and it can do nothing but help.

He will be able to respond to any Mccain-attempted October surprises and try to close the deal on his message.

Of course, such a strategy is insanely expensive, but Obama has a ton of money that Mccain can't possibly counter.

Last Debate Must-Dos
By most measures, the Dems are 3-0 in debates so far this year. The first debate, I believe was extremely close, although Obama evidentally won narrowly. The VP debate was clearly won by Biden, although Palin did herself proud by exceeding expectations, whereas people expected a strong performance by Biden. The second presidential debate was probably the most decisive of the three so far, with Obama clearly out-classing Mccain.

Mccain MUST win debate #3 decisively. He must look cool, calm and bi-partisan, while at the same time making Obama appear dangerous, risky and unqualified. Not an easy dual task.

Obama simply needs a draw or better to maintain the status quo.

This is the last big stage Mccain has to make his point. Not that there aren't still October surprises that could change things, but this is Mccain's best shot at closing the gap.
On the Bradley Effect
Mccain's other best shot, like it or not, is that white voters who say they will vote for Obama get in the booth and vote for Mccain.

An historical study of races where African-Americans candidates ran against white candidates show a pattern in the 1980s of the African-American candidate receiving 5 to 10% less in the national vote than the pre-election polls showed.

Our most recent history, however, indicates this effect may have evaporated. Harold Ford Jr's failed senate run in Tennessee was almost exactly in line with both pre-election polls and exit polls. Obama's running in the primaries was very close to his running in the polls in most states (New Hampshire was an exception, but that was a different circumstance as NH followed so closely with Iowa and the race was very fluid.)

I can't conceive that someone would genuinely fear being branded a racist for supporting Mccain. Certainly no one I've spoken to believes that. And I think even if people were to lie to their friends, why would they lie to a pollster that doesn't even know them?

I believe that all the reasons that people think the polls are wrong: The Bradley Effect, undersampling of 18-25s because of lack of landlines, new voter registration, etc. will probably all wash and the polls will be very close to right.

But we'll keep a close eye on the 6% or less states, because I could well be wrong.

Stable Map, McCain's Conscience & Some National Poll Clarity

Missouri Flips Back to Mccain, Obama Lead @ 338-200
Days Until Election: 25

Almost no movement in the past two days. Missouri flips marginally back to McCain as some new polling shows him with a slim lead there. The only other change is the result of a surprising poll in West Virginia by ARG that shows Obama leading there by 8%. This is almost impossible to believe given it's trend towards the GOP and Obama's awful showing against Hillary Clinton in the primaries. For now, West Virginia gets added as a Fringe Battleground, but we will stay tuned.

Since essentially nothing has changed and I did a very thorough analysis of the battlegrounds in my last post, I won't repeat it all. Suffice it to say, Mccain still has to win every one of the battlegrounds.

John McCain, Sudden Stroke of Conscience?
John McCain increasingly pushed back today on increasingly angry and ugly crowds in town halls that accused Obama of being a lot of things, including Muslim. McCain told the crowds that Obama was a decent man and urged them to cool the rhetoric.

Is this,
1. A politician realizing his crowds are making him look bad?
2. A tactic shift to refocus on the issues since his negative campaign doesn't appear to be working?
or
3. An honest case of conscience?

I don't know, but I like to believe it is number three. Honestly, today was the first time in the past two weeks that I remembered why I always liked McCain throughout his career. He still has a fundamental problem that this leaves him no path to change the trajectory of the race.

National Poll Clarity
In my last post, I noted the divergence of the Gallup poll from other national track polls, with it showing a significantly larger lead for Obama than other polls. I stated I believed one of the primary reasons was the use of Registered Voters vs. Likely Voters as a methodology.

Today's polls appear to support that position. Today's national polls show:
Likely Voter Polls
Fox News -- Obama +7%
Rasmussen -- Obama +5%
Hotline/FD -- Obama +7%
Reuters/Cspan/Zogby -- Obama +5%
GW/Battleground -- Obama +8%

Registered Voter Polls
Gallup -- Obama +10%
Newsweek -- Obama +11%

Clearly a pattern there. Obama leads by about 6-7% in Likely Voter polls and 10-11% in Registered Voter polls, a 4% spread. Which methodology is right will be determined on election day and will rest on whether pollsters are actually able to accurately model turnout patterns this year.

This is worth noting because the state polls are a mix of both methodologies, although the majority are Likely Voter methodology

Troopergate
A legislative panel in Alaska just released the conclusion that Sarah Palin illegally fired Public Safety Commissioner Walter Monegan. This is bad for McCain in that it will dominate the news coverage. But then, 24/7 economic crisis wasn't helping him either and there is some chance that Sarah Palin will look like a victim of a political witch hunt. I expect in the end, this will have very little impact on the race.

Is It Over?
More and more experts are starting to say this race is over. I'm not ready to say that yet based on a 6 to 7 point lead, which could be smaller if there is some real Bradley effect in this race. We've seen bigger swings in shorter time periods in this race.

But I will say that McCains looks more and more like a man who wants to believe he ran an honest race and less and less like a man who is going all out for the win. Mccain will need a big win in the last debate, something he hasn't been able to pull off yet, to put himself back in the mix. That or a big October surprise.

Traildust
Obama was in Ohio today, Joe Biden in Missouri
McCain was in Wisconsin and Minnesota, Sarah Palin on Ohio. Both Mccain & Palin are headed to Pennsylvania Saturday morning. Mccain also has a rally in Iowa.

My advice to Obama: Don't focus on Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina -- you don't need them even though they are close. Focus on the battleground that are your best percentage.

My advice to Mccain: Don't waste your time in the aspirational states on his schedule like Wisconsin, Minneosta, Pennsylvania and Iowa. You are way down there. Spend your time defending the Bush map.

Ho-Hum Debate, A Beginning of Poll Divergence?

OBAMA EXTENDS HIS LEAD ON THE ELECTORAL MAP TO 349-189, NATIONAL POLLS SOMEWHAT CONFUSING
DAYS UNTIL THE ELECTION: 27 DAYS
Only minor changes to the map. Missouri moves from a tie to an Obama state and remains a key battleground.

My take on the debate and the campaign ahead in a second.

But with heavy polling going on in all the swing states, I've decided to go in depth on all the battleground states to analyze the latest polls. I've included the 2 week spread and the weighted mean of all the polls as well as the weighted mean of polls from national polling firms.

First, a couple of definitional items. When I say "all" the polls, I mean all of the publicly available polls not provided by a party affiliated group. Both the Democrats and Republicans have in-house polling firms such as PPP and Strategic Vision that conduct polls that are publicly released. While in many instances they are similar to other polls, I do not trust these sources as these companies may not release results unfavorable to their candidate.

The national polling firm average includes unaffiliated national organizations such as Gallup, Rasmussen, Survey USA, etc. but EXCLUDES locally conducted polls, which can at times have a less accurate sample.

I weight the polling data based on the sample size rather than using a pure average as polls with larger samples statistically have greater accuracy. Essentially, we are conducting one big poll.

Note: In the case of tracking polls or duplicates from the same firm, I have used only that firm's most RECENT poll.

Note also that the spreads don't align perfectly with the battleground designations. This is again because my methodology also considers historical voting patterns whereas the pure poll data does not. This is because I believe that in general, by election day, states have a tendency to tend towards their historical patterns (as we saw in 2004.) This typically shows up in the polls prior to election day, so as we approach the election, I will be ramping down the weighting of the historical factor. Note that there are no states that are decided differently by either methodology, just the margins are impacted.

Here are the battlegrounds:
Key Battlegrounds
Virginia -- no change
2 Week Polling Spread: From +3% Mccain to +12% Obama (Middle of Spread = +4.5% Obama)
Most Recent Polls: Obama +10%, Obama +12%, Obama +2%
Weighted Mean: Obama +4.5%
Weighted Mean National: Obama + 3.4%
Conclusion: Approximately Obama +4%
Missouri -- stays key but switched from tie to Obama
2 Week Polling Spread: From +2% Mccain to +3% Obama (Middle of Spread = +0.5% Obama)
Most Recent Polls: Obama +3%
Weighted Mean: Obama +0.5%
Weighted Mean National: Obama +1%
Conclusion: Approximately Obama +1%
North Carolina -- no change
2 Week Polling Spread: From +3% Mccain to +3% Obama (Middle of Spread = Dead Even)
Most Recent Polls: Even, Mccain +3%
Weighted Mean (All Polls National): Mccain +0.9%
Conclusion: Approximately Mccain +1%

Serious Battleground
Florida -- no change
2 Week Polling Spread: From +1% Mccain to +8% Obama (Middle of Spread = +3.5% Obama)
Most Recent Polls: Obama +2%, Obama +7%
Weighted Mean: Obama +4.3%
Weighted Mean National: Obama + 4.4%
Conclusion: Approximately Obama +4%

Substantial Battlegrounds None
Somewhat Battlegrounds
Ohio -- demoted from substantial to somewhat battleground
2 Week Polling Spread: From +1% Mccain to +8% Obama (Middle of Spread = +3.5% Obama)
Most Recent Polls: Obama +6%, Mccain +1%, Obama +3%
Weighted Mean: Obama +4.2%
Weighted Mean National: Obama + 2.8%
Conclusion: Approximately Obama +3%
New Hampshire -- demoted from substantial to somewhat battleground
2 Week Polling Spread: From Obama +8% to Obama +13% (Middle of the Spread = +10.5% Obama)
Most Recent Polls: Obama +8%, Obama +13%, Obama +10%
Weighted Mean: Obama +10.7%
Weighted Mean National: Obama +10.1%
Conclusion: Approximately Obama +10%
Colorado -- demoted from substantial to somewhat battleground
2 Week Polling Spread: From Even to Obama +6% (Middle of the Spread = +3.0% Obama)
Most Recent Polls: Even, Obama +6%, Obama +6%
Weighted Mean: Obama +4.2%
Weighted Mean National: Obama +5.3%
Conclusion: Approximately Obama +4%
Nevada -- no change
2 Week Polling Spread: From Mccain +2% to Obama +7% (Middle of the Spread = +2.5% Obama)
Most Recent Polls: Obama +2%,Obama +7%,Obama +4%
Weighted Mean: Obama +3.1%
Weighted Mean National: +2.2%
Conclusion: Approximately Obama +3%
Fringe Battlegrounds
Indiana -- no change
2 Week Polling Spread: From Mccain +5% to Even (Middle of the Spread = +2.5% Mccain)
Most Recent Polls: Mccain +5%
Weighted Mean (all national): Mccain +2.4%
Conclusion: Approximately Mccain +3%
Potential Battlegrounds
Wisconsin
2 Week Polling Spread: From Obama +5% to Obama +10% (Middle of the Spread = +7.5% Obama)
Most Recent Polls: Obama +5%, Obama +10%, Obama +10%
Weighted Mean (All National) = Obama +7.6%
Conclusion: Approximately Obama +8%
Minnesota
2 Week Polling Spread: From Mccain +1% to Obama + 11% (Middle of the Spread = 5.0% Obama)
Most Recent Polls: Obama +14%, Obama +7%
Weighted Mean: Obama +10.5%
Weighted Mean National: Obama +7.2%
Conclusion: Approximately Obama +8%

So, if we look at the states that are closer than 9% in the polls, they rank as follows:
Indiana -- Mccain +3%
North Carolina -- Mccain +1%
Missouri -- Obama +1%
Ohio -- Obama +3%
Nevada -- Obama +3%
Virginia -- Obama +4%
Florida -- Obama +4%
Colorado -- Obama +4%
Wisconsin -- Obama +8%
Minnesota -- Obama +8%

Basically, Mccain must win Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, Nevada, Virginia, Florida AND Colorado to win (plus all his safe states.)

Obama must only win his safe states, hold Minnesota & Wisconsin and win any other 1 state to win.

But....as you can see, if the polls moved 5%, we'd have a totally different race.
Was That a Debate or Did We Watch Paint Dry?
After a week of absolutely pounding Obama on character issues, John Mccain played it safe. It was an uninteresting, unoriginal debate on the part of both candidates (not to mention an awful format.) Obama looked extremely credible and as such won in the public opinion polls. The only conclusion that I can reach is that John Mccain a strategic decision to fight the battle in the trenches and not on the big stage. But this did not help him....and he needs to help himself in the next 27 days.
Divergent Polls
The national polls tell an odd story as I've rarely seen such a large spread in the results. The Gallup tracking poll shows its largest lead of the year for Obama at 12%, whereas the 4 other track polls have margins of 1%, 2%, 4% and 6% respectively. 10 points on large sample tracking polls is a huge spread. What gives?

Of the 4 national polls, Gallup is the only one that is still using registered voters as the polling sample, whereas the other 4 are all now using likely voters. Generally speaking, likely voter methodolgies tend to favor Republicans, since Republicans tend to have higher base turnout (Christian conservatives and senior citizens usually have very high turnout, 18-25ers and African-Americans do not.) Of the 4 polls excluding Gallup, Obama is up an average of 3.3%, which is fairly consistent with the state-by-state rundown that I just did that shows Mccain would need to advance 4% in key swing states to retake the lead.

But are the likely voter models right this year? Based on voter turnout in the Democratic primary and the surge of new voters who have registered, Obama is clearly hoping to change the paradigm. Nobody knows for sure what the effect of this will be.

An anecdotal personal story further complicates thing. I recently moved to New Jersey and mailed in my voter registration last week. Because the deadline for registration in New Jersey is approaching (it is 21 days prior to the election) and I wanted to ensure the registration was received before it was too late. The lady who I spoke to at the Board of Elections informed me that they have a backlog of new registrations that has them working 7 days / week, 16 hours / day. She told me she didn't know the status of my application because they had such a huge backlog, but assured me it would be processed before election day if I sent it. She said in 40 years doing this, she has never seen anything approaching this level of new registrations.

Could it be that even the registered voter logs are not sufficient to get a good poll sample?
The Road Ahead
If, in fact, this really is only a 4% race, then Mccain is still very much alive, although he needs to start helping himself a lot more than he did in the debate. I don't anticipate the last debate to do much for him -- fewer people will be watching (having seen two people will tune out and Mccain can't seem to score a decisive win, barring a big gaffe by Obama), so it will get super-nasty from the stump and on the air. The kitchen sink will be flying to try to close the gap. And in the end, I expect it will be close, although I think Obama still has to be the favorite (but not a 3:1 favorite like on Intrade.) Keep in mind, it still isn't the fourth quarter. 27 days is a lifetime in politics.
Campaign Trail
Joe Biden appeared with Obama in Florida (obviously a key state.) Biden is in Missouri tomorrow
Obama appeared with Biden in Florida also had a rally in Indiana (a longer-shot for Obama, but still in play), then off to Ohio tomorrow
John Mccain is in Pennsylvania (clearly he doesn't believe it is a lost cause) and then on to Wisconsin tomorrow (does he know something I don't? Does he already have Florida, Ohio, Vriginia, North Carolina and Colorado sewn up and can afford to go after blue states?)
Sarah Palin is off today and in Ohio and Wisconsin tomorrow

In all, I have to admit I'm confused. Obama & Biden's strategy makes some sense -- go after the big battlegrounds (Ohio and Florida) and force Mccain to defend traditionally red states that are very close (Indiana and Missouri). Mccain spending time in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is crazy -- he'd love to win there of course, but he needs to be camped out in the myriad of other states he needs. There is a lot of turf to defend and not much time. Maybe it is cat and mouse. But it is getting late for fancy play.

John Mccain, How Low Can He Go?

OBAMA EXTENDS HIS LEAD TO 338-189 (11 TIED), VIRGINIA BACK IN HIS COLUMN, MISSOURI NOW A TIE
DAYS UNTIL THE ELECTION: 29

Note: Due to a typo on my part, this post originally showed Obama with a 333-189-11 lead vs. the correct count of 338-189-11

It may now be time for the Mccain campaign to go in full fledged panic (judging by their new tactics, I think they may be ahead of me.) Almost nothing for the GOP to get excited about in the past two weeks as Palin's performance apparently has failed to deliver any kind of bump (as I thought it might.)

The latest changes are as follows: STATE CHANGES Virginia -- swings back to Obama Missouri -- moves from Mccain to tied

KEY BATTLEGROUNDS Virginia -- remains a key battleground after switching to Obama
Missouri -- becomes a key battleground (from substantial) after switching from Mccain to tied North Carolina -- no change

SERIOUS BATTLEGROUNDS Florida -- no change
SUBSTANTIAL BATTLEGROUNDS
Colorado -- promoted from somewhat to Substantial battleground, a rare improvement for Mccain
Ohio -- no change
New Hampshire -- no change
SOMEWHAT BATTLEGROUNDS
Nevada -- no change
FRINGE BATTLEGROUNDS
Indiana -- moves back up from potential to fringe battleground
POTENTIAL BATTLEGROUNDS As I mentioned before, all of the other categories are statistically arrived at, this one is subjective. I admit, I am struggling with what to include here, as Obama leads by so much in states that I previously considered potential battlegrounds (he is up by 9 to 11 points in Pennsylvania, for instance.) I thought about simply including the 3 closest states in the polling that are not already battlegrounds. However, one of those is Michigan, and Mccain has clearly conceded there. Therefore, I will include only 2:
Wisconsin
New Mexico (added back)

Note: I have dropped Pennsylvania for the reasons above.
Mccain/Palin and the Art of the Low Blow
In my last blog, I said it would quickly get nasty and it has. Sarah Palin is playing pit bull accusing Obama of "paling around with terrorists" and raising the specter of Jeremiah Wright. Mccain meanwhile is saying that Obama has "never done anything in government". Clearly the GOP ticket believes they need to seriously change the momentum of the race quickly.

They are underfunded vs. Obama and have a much tougher map to defend.

But, as I continue to say, the race is a football game with four quarters:
First quarter -- from clinching of the nomination to convention
This one went to Mccain, who closed the gap to nothing by the time the conventions started

Second quarter -- the conventions
This one went slightly to Mccain, who held a modest lead coming out thanks to the Palin pick and her speech.

Third quarter -- from the conventions through the debates
This one has gone to Obama and big so far, but there are still two debates left

Fourth quarter -- from the debates to the election
This page is still blank -- Mccain is trying to shape it with doubts about Obama 's character, patriotism and experience

I must say though, Mccain is looking like a bigger and bigger underdog as the days tick away.
CANDIDATE SCHEDULES
GOP -- Mccain is in New Mexico today (he clearly believes this is still a potential battleground), Palin is in Florida (clearly a battleground.) Palin will be in the Carolinas while Mccain debates.

DEM -- Obama was in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia over the weekend. He will be in Florida and Indiana later in the week.

Where is Joe Biden, anyway? Official word is a family medical emergency, but the circumstances seem very odd.

McNasty Might Finally Be Here, Mccain Goes on Offense Attacking Obama's Lead

LATEST PROJECTION: FLORIDA SWITCHES TO OBAMA, VIRGINIA BACK TO MCCAIN
OBAMA NOW LEADS 325-213 LATEST NATIONAL POLLS: 6% TO 8% LEAD FOR OBAMA
DAYS UNTIL THE ELECTION: 31 (EXACTLY ONE MONTH)

John Mccain now trails Barack Obama by 6% to 8% in the average of national polls. He cannot win without closing the gap. Even if we were to assume a 3% Bradley/Wilder effect (more on that later), it would be almost impossible to draw an electoral map where he loses the popular vote by 3% and wins the election. The map is all Obama -- Mccain would need to take back Nevada, Florida & Ohio AND overtake Obama in another state (most likely Colorado) in order to win.

These totals are mostly not reflective of any impact of the VP debate (more on that later as well.)

Here are the latest battlegrounds and changes:
STATE CHANGES
Florida switches to Obama

KEY BATTLEGROUNDS
Virginia -- no change
North Carolina -- no change

SERIOUS BATTLEGROUNDS Florida -- after switching to Obama, drops down to a serious battleground

SUBSTANTIAL BATTLEGROUNDS Ohio -- reduced from serious to substantial battleground
New Hampshire -- no change
Missouri -- no change

SOMEWHAT BATTLEGROUNDS
Nevada -- switches solidly to Obama, dropping down from a serious to a somewhat battleground
Colorado -- no change

FRINGE BATTLEGROUNDS
None this time

Note: Indiana and Pennsylvania were dropped as battlegrounds. I have elected to leave both as potential battlegrounds as they are both still relatively close.

POTENTIAL BATTLEGROUNDS
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Indiana
Pennsylvania

ANY DEBATE IMPACT?
I stated in the immediate aftermath of the Biden/Palin debate that I thought Biden would be the modest winner in the public opinion polls but that Mccain would eventually get a small bump as a result of Palin exceeding expectations. Thus far, public opinion polls appear to bear out the theory that a. Biden won (CNN poll had it 51%-35%) but that Palin exceeded expectations (66% in the same CNN poll.) So will this have any effect on the polls like I thought?

Too soon to say. The 3 tracking polls released that have at least 1 day of post-debate polling (they are all Wed-Fri with all of Friday being post-debate and a small portion of Thursday being post debate):
Gallup -- Obama +8% (up 1% from previous day's tracking poll, up 3% from 2 days ago)
Rasmussen -- Obama +6% (up 1% from previous day, up 1% from 2 days ago)
Hotline/FD -- Obama +7% (up 1% from previous day, up 2% from 2 days ago)

So, the early data favors that Biden helped. But it is early. These very small bumps (a 1% move on a poll that has a 1% standard deviation is not very significant) could just be noise. But it appears at best for Mccain, the debate was a wash and he will need to make up ground.

All of which brings us to....

McNasty to Finally Show Up
In previous blogs, I stated that I was shocked at how mild the negative advertising has been in the campaign so far, given the stakes involved. Almost all of the attacks have been mostly legitimate, issues based. None of the kind of vicious appeal to our worst tendencies that we have seen in the past (Swift Boat Veterans, Willie Horton, etc.)

No more. The Washington Post reports that Mccain is about to up the ante by "questioning Obama's associations" which is a thinly veiled way of saying they are going after Jeremiah Wright and company. The Post reports that the Mccain will start this new strategy soon. It will be interesting to see whether Mccain is going to launch the attacks himself in the second debate Tuesday night (which I think would be unwise) or wait until immediately after the last debate, which I think would probably be the smarter strategy as Mccain would not be personally on the hook to defend dubious ads on a national stage.

Obama, meanwhile, will have to decide whether to respond in kind (break out the Keating Five ads) or attempt to stay above the fray and run out the clock. It's a tough call for him -- if he fires back, he compromises his "different kind of candidate" image, if he does not, he risks being run over. My advice for the time-being would be for him to aggressively attack Mccain on the issues and leave the personal assualts to the 527's.

Speaking of the 527's, they are out with ads with more force, but so far, nothing I would consider impactful. A conservative 527 is running ads saying Obama opposed protection of babies who were born after botched abortion attempts, a liberal 527 is running an ad about John Mccain having cancer 4 times and questions why he has not released his medical records. In my opinion, both ads are too narrowly focused to have a significant impact.

The Bradley/Wilder Effect
As the first major party African-American nominee for President is Obama over performing in the polls vs. how he will do on election day? The news agencies report that in the primaries, Obama was averaging polling 3% better in exit polls than he actually performed in the final counts. Does this mean he will under perform current polls by 3%?

Not necessarily. Exit polls are very different from telephone polls. One, you have to respond to the pollster in person, which might intimidate more people into lying about their choice than a phone survey which is more private. Secondly, exit polls tend to draw MORE younger voters (who don't mind talking to people with clipboards) vs. older voters (who just want to vote and get the heck out of there), which explains part of the bias. Phone surveys have the opposite bias as many young voters do not have land lines.

So, let's assume there is a 0-3% bias in the polls, we just don't know which one! Either way, if Mccain is trailing by 6-8% right now, he needs to move the needle to win.

All Not Lost for Mccain
We have four and a half weeks and two debates to go. Think how much the polls have moved in the last four and a half weeks. I guarantee in WILL get closer by election day. Whether Mccain will turn the corner and win remains to be seen.

Campaign Calendars
Mccain has shut down his operation in Michigan, implicitly acknowledging what I reported last week, that Michigan is no longer a true potential battleground. The candidates campaigning schedule reveals a lot about where they think the fight will be.

Obama is in Virginia today and has not published a schedule beyond then. In the past week, he has been in Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Mccain in the past week has been in Ohio, Missouri, Colorado and Iowa.

Clearly the common thread being Colorado, the candidates are seeing what I am seeing -- that if it is close, Colorado will decide the election.

Obama appears to be shoring up states he should win (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) while trying to pick off a few key swing states (Nevada, Virginia and Colorado)

Mccain is shoring up Missouri (which he should win in the end unless it is a rout), contending in the swing states of Ohio and Colorado. Not sure why he is spending time in Iowa -- I seriously doubt he can win there, but maybe he is hoping to make Obama defend there.

Grim Map for Mccain, Palin Holds Her Own Against Biden

OHIO SWINGS TO OBAMA, GIVING HIM A 311-227 LEAD IN OUR COUNT, UP 5 to 6% IN AVERAGE OF NATIONAL POLLS

Obviously all of the data is pre-VP debate, but here is where we stand: Barack Obama has a commanding lead. He has now claimed Ohio and has moved very close in North Carolina and Florida.

Our battlegrounds are as follows:

Key Battlegrounds

Ohio -- switches to Obama, stays a key battleground

Virginia -- no change

North Carolina -- no change

Florida -- no change

Serious Battleground

Nevada -- stays Mccain but promoted from substantial to serious battleground

Substantial Battlegrounds

Missouri -- stays Mccain but promoted from fringe to substantial battleground

New Hampshire -- no change

Somewhat Battlegrounds

Colorado -- no change

Fringe Battlegrounds

Indiana -- no change

Pennsylvania -- no change

Potential Battlegrounds

Minnesota

Wisconsin

Debate Scorecard: Draw (or Something Like That) Goes to Palin
I just finished watching the VP debate and I think that if I were to assess the intellectual merits of the debate, clearly Joe Biden won a rousing victory. He was cool, informed and passionate at the right times, while Palin was at times stuck on talking points. Biden gave the best debate performance of his career. Of course, we all know that debates are not about who is intellectually superior. And in the expectations game I spoke of in earlier blogs, I believe Palin won the debate.

To be clear, I expect public opinion polls to show Joe Biden marginally winning. I also expect a modest boost for Mccain in the polls.

How can that be? Palin did much of what she did at the Republican convention, she re-energized her base, she appeared credible and erased some of the liability she has created in the past two weeks.

In terms of the goals I laid out for the candidates, I actually thought both candidates did very well.

Here is my unscientific scorecard.

Sarah Palin:

1. Appear credible and informed -- make Katie Couric a long lost memory

Achieved -- Palin appeared credible and confident

2. Deliver the talking points without making them sound like talking points

Mostly achieved -- she fell back on talking points several times, but came off personably for the most part. And she stuck to her core themes.

3. Be Mccain's attack dog -- get nasty, but about Obama, not Biden

Achieved -- she hit Obama hard throughout the debate

4. Hold on the "everywoman" charm while showing "superwoman" intelligence

Mostly achieved -- she definitely kept her folksy charm and held her own for the most part against Biden

Unscientific Grade: A-

1. Attack John Mccain relentlessly
Achieved -- he hit Mccain as hard as she

2. Don't gaffe! (it'll be the only thing played on the news the next day if you do)
Achieved -- no missteps tonight

3. Do not, under any circumstances attack Sarah Palin or her qualifications directly, if you feel a need to attack, see#1
Achieved -- he stuck to Mccain, never going after Palin

4. Avoid coming off as smarmy -- Biden has to put forth his "Blue Collar Delaware Joe" persona without grating with his "Bare-Knuckle Joe" persona
Achieved -- the highlight of the debate was Blue Collar Joe passionately talking about raising two sons as a single parent.

Unscientific Grade: A

Obama will probably be up by 3 to 5 points going into next Tuesday's #2 Presidential Debate. He still needs a breakthrough performance to pull within striking distance in the closing weeks of the campaign.

John Mccain, Course Correction Needed

PRE-VP DEBATE SCORECARD: OBAMA/BIDEN LEADS 286-252 GOING INTO THE VP DEBATE BUT IT'S EVEN WORSE THAN IT SOUNDS FOR MCCAIN

Obama has a clear and decisive lead over John Mccain going into the VP debates, but what's worse for Mccain is the shape of the battlegrounds. To win, Mccain would need to hold all the battlegrounds that he currently holds (including Ohio, North Carolina and Florida, which are all seriously at risk), he would also need to take essentially all of the swing states that Obama holds (Virginia, New Hampshire AND Colorado.)

No states swing today. North Carolina, Ohio and Florida all stay Mccain for now but creep closer to the Obama column.

Key Battlegrounds
Virginia -- no change
North Carolina -- promoted from Serious to Key battleground
Ohio -- promoted from Serious to Key battleground

Serious Battlegrounds
Florida -- promoted from Substantial to Serious battleground

Substantial Battlegrounds
Nevada -- no change
New Hampshire -- no change

Somehwat Battlegrounds
Colorado -- no change

Fringe Battlegrounds
Pennsylvania -- no change
Indiana -- no change
Missouri -- added as Fringe battleground (from Potential Battleground)

Potential Battlegrounds
Minnesota
Wisconsin

Note: I finally bit the bullet and dropped New Mexico as a battleground. This one seems like it ought to be in play, but I can't justify having it on the list when the last poll there shows Obama up by 11%.

Don't Get Too Giddy or Too Depressed
As I said yesterday, despite all this analysis, this race is not over. There is much left to happen in the race and if the national polls were moved 5 points by a strong debate performance or a news event, we'd be looking at a totally different electoral map. So, if you are a Democrat, don't get over confident. And if you are a Republican, don't despair. Obama is up a couple of touchdowns, but it is only the third quarter.

Early Voting
Early voting has begun in Ohio. Since Obama is streaking right now in the polls, one would assume that the start of early voting is to his advantage. Depending on how many people vote early, it could make projecting a winner very hard as polls right before the election may not reflect how many people felt when they actually voted.

VP Debate Tasks
Here are my tasks for Sarah Palin and Joe Biden in the debate
Sarah Palin:
1. Appear credible and informed -- make Katie Couric a long lost memory
2. Deliver the talking points without making them sound like talking points
3. Be Mccain's attack dog -- get nasty, but about Obama, not Biden
4. Hold on the "everywoman" charm while showing "superwoman" intelligence

Joe Biden:
1. Attack John Mccain relentlessly
2. Don't gaffe! (it'll be the only thing played on the news the next day if you do)
3. Do not, under any circumstances attack Sarah Palin or her qualifications directly, if you feel a need to attack, see#1
4. Avoid coming off as smarmy -- Biden has to put forth his "Blue Collar Delaware Joe" persona without grating with his "Bare-Knuckle Joe" persona

I have my doubts about whether VP debates really matter in the long run, but certainly Palin is in a better position to help Mccain than Biden is to help Obama. Palin can help just by looking credible and as I said yesterday, if it is remotely close (which it really could be), it is an expectations win for her. Biden on the other hand, probably can't help the streaking Obama any, but could do damage with a gaffe or by simply losing the debate.

I imagine this will be higher rated than the first presidential debate. It is on a weeknight vs. a Friday night and there is much more curiosity about Palin than the relatively (by now) well known commodities of John Mccain and Barak Obama.

I'll certainly be watching.