With 4.5% of precincts reporting in, Bob McDonnell leads Creigh Deeds in the race for Virginia Governor by a margin of 65.6% to 34.4%. This margin will likely get more narrow as they are no votes recorded yet for the 8th, 10th and 11th congressional districts in Northern Virginia, typically the Democratic stronghold in the state.
Still no network projecting a winner.
I still feel about right with my projection from last night.
30 minutes until polls close in New Jersey.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
McDonnell "Leading" in Exit Polling, But No Call
I thought I'd seen it all in terms of election projections after the 2000 Florida debacle, but this is a new wrinkle. The polls now being closed 22 minutes in the State of Virginia, the major networks ar enot yet calling the race for Bob McDonnell the Republican but are stating that exit polling is showing him "leading".
I'm not sure what any of this means....if you are "leading" after an election is over aren't you projected to win?
I'll go ahead and project McDonnell the winner, as I have been, but maybe it is modestly good news for Democrats that the margin may be smaller rather than larger if the networks aren't ready to call it yet. Or perhaps they are just gun shy.
36 minutes until polls close in New Jersey.
I'm not sure what any of this means....if you are "leading" after an election is over aren't you projected to win?
I'll go ahead and project McDonnell the winner, as I have been, but maybe it is modestly good news for Democrats that the margin may be smaller rather than larger if the networks aren't ready to call it yet. Or perhaps they are just gun shy.
36 minutes until polls close in New Jersey.
County Interals from 2005 in New Jersey and How to Assess in 2009
Since New Jersey seems sure to be the closest race of the night, let's take a look back at the 2005 returns and look for clues as to what to watch for tonight.
In 2005, Jon Corzine won 55% of the two-party vote. Since he needs 50.1% of the two party vote, we'll focus on the counties where he won close to 55% of the vote 4 years ago to look at the counties that will likely tip the balance this time.
In 2005, Corzine handily won the following counties(with at least 60% of the vote):
These counties will be interesting only in the MARGIN of victory as he is likely to carry them all again.
In 2005, he LOST the following counties:
He will almost certainly lose these again.
Which leaves us with the swing counties and Corzine's %'s from 2005:
Salem -- 51%
Burlington -- 53%
Atlantic -- 55%
Gloucester -- 55%
Bergen -- 57%
Middlesex -- 59%
Mercer -- 59%
Cumerland -- 59%
Mostly South Jersey counties are the swing counties. Of these counties, Burlington, Middlesex and Bergen are the big ones, together representing over 25% of the votes cast in 2005. Pretty much, whoever wins the three counties will win the election. I'll be analyzing the returns through this filter -- who is winning the key swing counties?
I would do a similar analysis in Virginia if I thought it mattered. Hampton Roads is usually the key to Virginia in close races, but let's face it, Virginia is not looking close this year.
Stay tuned -- 48 minutes until we start counting votes.
In 2005, Jon Corzine won 55% of the two-party vote. Since he needs 50.1% of the two party vote, we'll focus on the counties where he won close to 55% of the vote 4 years ago to look at the counties that will likely tip the balance this time.
In 2005, Corzine handily won the following counties(with at least 60% of the vote):
| Passaic |
| Union |
| Camden |
| Essex |
| Hudson |
These counties will be interesting only in the MARGIN of victory as he is likely to carry them all again.
In 2005, he LOST the following counties:
| Hunterdon |
| Sussex |
| Warren |
| Morris |
| Ocean |
| Somerset |
| Monmouth |
| Cape May |
He will almost certainly lose these again.
Which leaves us with the swing counties and Corzine's %'s from 2005:
Salem -- 51%
Burlington -- 53%
Atlantic -- 55%
Gloucester -- 55%
Bergen -- 57%
Middlesex -- 59%
Mercer -- 59%
Cumerland -- 59%
Mostly South Jersey counties are the swing counties. Of these counties, Burlington, Middlesex and Bergen are the big ones, together representing over 25% of the votes cast in 2005. Pretty much, whoever wins the three counties will win the election. I'll be analyzing the returns through this filter -- who is winning the key swing counties?
I would do a similar analysis in Virginia if I thought it mattered. Hampton Roads is usually the key to Virginia in close races, but let's face it, Virginia is not looking close this year.
Stay tuned -- 48 minutes until we start counting votes.
Betting Odds on the Move
Movements in the betting odds can reveal interesting information about a race on the day of an election. They are not always accurate -- John Kerry's odds spiked in 2004 after Matt Drudge leaked early and ultimately incorrect exit polling results that showed him way ahead, but they are one of the many tea leaves we can read until we start getting the actual vote counts.
Here is the latest on each race:
New Jersey -- since this morning, Jon Corzine has jumped from a 1.1:1 underdog to almost a 1.4:1 favorite. Clearly the late money is betting on Corzine. Is this just long-time watchers predicting another late left turn in New Jersey or do they know something?
Virginia -- steady as she goes. Bob McDonnell is still a 110:1 favorite.
New York-23 -- Hoffman (or, to be precise, anyone other than Owens) is up to a 9:1 favorite (from 2.3:1 yesterday). The late money is going to the conservative insurrection in this fascinating race.
New York Mayor -- Michael Bloomberg is still predicted to be very safe -- 24:1 favorite with no movement in the odds today.
65 minutes until the polls close.
Here is the latest on each race:
New Jersey -- since this morning, Jon Corzine has jumped from a 1.1:1 underdog to almost a 1.4:1 favorite. Clearly the late money is betting on Corzine. Is this just long-time watchers predicting another late left turn in New Jersey or do they know something?
Virginia -- steady as she goes. Bob McDonnell is still a 110:1 favorite.
New York-23 -- Hoffman (or, to be precise, anyone other than Owens) is up to a 9:1 favorite (from 2.3:1 yesterday). The late money is going to the conservative insurrection in this fascinating race.
New York Mayor -- Michael Bloomberg is still predicted to be very safe -- 24:1 favorite with no movement in the odds today.
65 minutes until the polls close.
Election 2009 -- Strap In and Enjoy the Ride
Okay, it's not the excitement of 2008. It's not even the fun of a congressional mid-term. In fact, many of you didn't even have an election to participate in today. But this site is here to cover elections, and this is as good as it gets this year.
So let's gear up and enjoy what we have to talk about tonight: two governor's races, a couple of congressional special elections and some interesting ballot initiatives.
Polls start closing soon and as soon as they do, I'll be analyzing the returns, looking at the projections and doing everything that I can to keep you informed.
All I can tell you about so far is my own election experience.
I voted at Marlton Elementary School in New Jersey this morning. I went early, around 6:45 AM. There was no line and only a couple of other people there voting -- anecdotal evidence of potentially low turnout, I was thinking, although this was hardly a statistically significant sampling.
As I entered the booth, a twinge of doubt entered my mind as I hunt for Chris Daggett's name on the Governor row, thinking as I found it buried amongst columns of people I'd never heard of, "he won't win -- shouldn't I just vote for the lesser of the two evils among Corzine and Christie?" I then thought about who I would vote for among those two, and quickly came back to the same conclusion that I did months ago...that I couldn't pull the lever for either. I pushed the Daggett button, voted the down ticket races, voted on a couple of unexciting ballot initiatives (one was about preservation of green areas in New Jersey, another a question on whether to move municipal elections from May to November), pushed the record button and left the booth.
I left with a few thoughts:
(1) I wonder how many other potential Daggett voters walked in the booth, had the same doubts and ultimately voted for Corzine or Christie? This is the sort of thing that pre-election polls just can't measure.
(2) Is turnout really going to be low? If so, does this foretell a Christie win?
(3) How is it that in the greatest nation on Earth, we still don't have an effective back-up mechanism for electronic voting machines? I have no physical evidence my vote was counted and if the memory card in the voting machine that I used died, there would be no way to recover my vote. I renew my call for electronic voting systems with a paper back-up record in case of failure.
Much, much more to come tonight, folks.
Buckle up and enjoy...this is as good as it gets for political junkies this year.
Coverage on New Jersey, Virginia, New York and Maine upcoming.
So let's gear up and enjoy what we have to talk about tonight: two governor's races, a couple of congressional special elections and some interesting ballot initiatives.
Polls start closing soon and as soon as they do, I'll be analyzing the returns, looking at the projections and doing everything that I can to keep you informed.
All I can tell you about so far is my own election experience.
I voted at Marlton Elementary School in New Jersey this morning. I went early, around 6:45 AM. There was no line and only a couple of other people there voting -- anecdotal evidence of potentially low turnout, I was thinking, although this was hardly a statistically significant sampling.
As I entered the booth, a twinge of doubt entered my mind as I hunt for Chris Daggett's name on the Governor row, thinking as I found it buried amongst columns of people I'd never heard of, "he won't win -- shouldn't I just vote for the lesser of the two evils among Corzine and Christie?" I then thought about who I would vote for among those two, and quickly came back to the same conclusion that I did months ago...that I couldn't pull the lever for either. I pushed the Daggett button, voted the down ticket races, voted on a couple of unexciting ballot initiatives (one was about preservation of green areas in New Jersey, another a question on whether to move municipal elections from May to November), pushed the record button and left the booth.
I left with a few thoughts:
(1) I wonder how many other potential Daggett voters walked in the booth, had the same doubts and ultimately voted for Corzine or Christie? This is the sort of thing that pre-election polls just can't measure.
(2) Is turnout really going to be low? If so, does this foretell a Christie win?
(3) How is it that in the greatest nation on Earth, we still don't have an effective back-up mechanism for electronic voting machines? I have no physical evidence my vote was counted and if the memory card in the voting machine that I used died, there would be no way to recover my vote. I renew my call for electronic voting systems with a paper back-up record in case of failure.
Much, much more to come tonight, folks.
Buckle up and enjoy...this is as good as it gets for political junkies this year.
Coverage on New Jersey, Virginia, New York and Maine upcoming.
Monday, November 2, 2009
Election 2009 -- A Viewer's Guide
Let's get right down to it....my predictions, the predictions of others and what to look for tomorrow night as we assess the "mini-midterm" elections for Governor in Virginia and New Jersey and the wild special election in New York's 23rd Congressional District.
First, the backdrop: these races do have national significance, at least to the extent that they reflect the mood of pockets of the country (in this case, the purplish state of Virginia, the blueish state of New Jersey and the purple-red New York 23rd), but are overblown in their coverage for no other reason than that we don't get any other actual voter data until next year, when we have 10 times as many Governor's races and 435 times as many House races, as well as 30-some Senate races.
So, let's not overhype this too much -- these elections matter, but they are not life-changing for the parties.
Having said this, let's get down to the analysis.
Let's begin with Virginia, by far the easiest prediction of the night:
Polls by leader: McDonnell 6, Deeds 0, Even 0
Poll Averages with Rasmussen (without Rasmussen)
Unweighted Average: McDonnell +14.0% (+14.2%)
Sample-Weighted Average: McDonnell +13.8% (+14.1%)
Median: McDonnell +13.5% (+14.0%)
Average of Averages: McDonnell +13.8% (+14.1%)
Final Prediction: McDonnell 57.0%, Deeds 43.0%, Likely GOP Pick-up
What Others Are Saying:
RealClearPolitics Prediction: McDonnell +13.4%
Intrade Odds: McDonnell is a 110:1 favorite
The Intrade odds seem a little excessive to me (I would say 40:1 or 50:1 would be fair, but if I were betting, I might lay $10 on Deeds to take a longshot at $1,100), but it should be an early night in Virginia.
Things to watch: Basically this one just comes down to who has the best polling methodology -- is it Survey USA at McDonnell +18%? Or perhaps Research 2000 at McDonnell +10%? Which averaging methodology works best? Does McDonnell win by closer to 13.5% or closer to 14.2%? No drama in results here short of some type of massive disruption at the polls or foul play -- Bob McDonnell becomes the next Governor of Virginia.
Next, let's move to New Jersey.
Polls by leader: Christie - 3, Corzine - 2, Even - 0
Poll Averages with Rasmussen (without Rasmussen)
Unweighted Average: Christie +1.0% (+0.5%)
Sample-Weighted Average: Christie +1.3% (+0.6%)
Median: Christie +2.0% (+0.5%)
Average of Averages: Christie +1.4% (+0.5%)
Final Prediction: Christie - 45.0%, Corzine - 44.1%, Daggett - 10.9%, Lean GOP Pick-up
What Others Are Saying:
RealClearPolitics Prediction: Christie +1.0%
Intrade Betting Odds: Christie is a 1.08:1 favorite
That's right folks, after weeks of predicting that New Jersey would tilt back blue and ultimately go for Corzine, I'm predicting a Christie win, albeit by a seriously slim margin. The scenario of a late departure to Corzine putting him over the top is certainly possible, but we have very good, recent, polling data available here that does not point to a pending surge. All indications are that this one is going to be a squeaker either way and the statistical evidene says that Christie is more likely than not to win, although by no means assured. The betting odds seem about right, although faced with those odds, I'd be inclined to lay $108 on Christie to win $100.
Things to watch:
(1) Voter turnout -- high is good for Corzine, low is good for Christie. Corzine needs all those new Obama voters to show up in an off-year -- the GOP stalwarts almost always show up.
(2) The Daggett effect -- how many voters dump Daggett late for another candidate? History has shown times where Independents get dumped at the last minute when it is clear they can't win. But will these voters abandon Daggett and if so, who will they vote for?
(3) Ballot Burial -- New Jersey's pro-two party balloting laws bury Daggett amidst a bunch of nobody independents that litter the ballot, while the top two candidates get top billing. This could cost him votes, but again, to where will they go?
(4) Suburban South Jersey -- Newark and Camden will vote for Corzine, the rural northern and central part of the State will go for Christie...but where will the greater Cherry Hill area vote? That's the swing part of the state and will probably tip the election.
This is THE race to watch tomorrow night, and I'll be watching closely.
Finally, to New York-23, where we simply don't have good data to make a statistically-based call. Two days ago, Republican Dede Scozzafava suspended her campaign. Yesterday, she endorsed Democrat Bill Owens.
We have one poll, taken today by Siena that took place after both of these developments. It shows Conservative Candidate Doug Hoffman 41%, Owens at 36% and Scozzafava (who is still on the ballot), showing up at 6%. It appears that the Scozzafava voters (who are mostly Republicans and Republican-leaners, after all) are breaking somewhat more for Hoffman than Owens. 6% of people are either protesting or didn't get the memo that Scozzafava is out.
I can't make a mathematical prediction, but from this little bit that we do know, this certainly appears to continue to be a Lean GOP Hold. On the betting odds below, I'd still bet on Owens. I expected Hoffman to win, but 2.3 to 1 is reasonably long odds for such a turbulent race.
What Others Are Saying:
RealClearPolitics: No prediction
Intrade Betting Odds: Hoffman is a 2.3 to 1 favorite (actually "anyone but Owens" is the 2.3:1 favorite, but for all intents and purposes, that means Hoffman at this point.)
If you live in Virginia, New Jersey or New York's 23rd Congressional District or even if you just have local races to contend with, please vote, regardless of your political stripes. I do my best to project races, but in the end, real votes count, not my predictions. Let your voice be heard!
And tune in to this site for coverage of election night 2009.
First, the backdrop: these races do have national significance, at least to the extent that they reflect the mood of pockets of the country (in this case, the purplish state of Virginia, the blueish state of New Jersey and the purple-red New York 23rd), but are overblown in their coverage for no other reason than that we don't get any other actual voter data until next year, when we have 10 times as many Governor's races and 435 times as many House races, as well as 30-some Senate races.
So, let's not overhype this too much -- these elections matter, but they are not life-changing for the parties.
Having said this, let's get down to the analysis.
Let's begin with Virginia, by far the easiest prediction of the night:
Polls by leader: McDonnell 6, Deeds 0, Even 0
Poll Averages with Rasmussen (without Rasmussen)
Unweighted Average: McDonnell +14.0% (+14.2%)
Sample-Weighted Average: McDonnell +13.8% (+14.1%)
Median: McDonnell +13.5% (+14.0%)
Average of Averages: McDonnell +13.8% (+14.1%)
Final Prediction: McDonnell 57.0%, Deeds 43.0%, Likely GOP Pick-up
What Others Are Saying:
RealClearPolitics Prediction: McDonnell +13.4%
Intrade Odds: McDonnell is a 110:1 favorite
The Intrade odds seem a little excessive to me (I would say 40:1 or 50:1 would be fair, but if I were betting, I might lay $10 on Deeds to take a longshot at $1,100), but it should be an early night in Virginia.
Things to watch: Basically this one just comes down to who has the best polling methodology -- is it Survey USA at McDonnell +18%? Or perhaps Research 2000 at McDonnell +10%? Which averaging methodology works best? Does McDonnell win by closer to 13.5% or closer to 14.2%? No drama in results here short of some type of massive disruption at the polls or foul play -- Bob McDonnell becomes the next Governor of Virginia.
Next, let's move to New Jersey.
Polls by leader: Christie - 3, Corzine - 2, Even - 0
Poll Averages with Rasmussen (without Rasmussen)
Unweighted Average: Christie +1.0% (+0.5%)
Sample-Weighted Average: Christie +1.3% (+0.6%)
Median: Christie +2.0% (+0.5%)
Average of Averages: Christie +1.4% (+0.5%)
Final Prediction: Christie - 45.0%, Corzine - 44.1%, Daggett - 10.9%, Lean GOP Pick-up
What Others Are Saying:
RealClearPolitics Prediction: Christie +1.0%
Intrade Betting Odds: Christie is a 1.08:1 favorite
That's right folks, after weeks of predicting that New Jersey would tilt back blue and ultimately go for Corzine, I'm predicting a Christie win, albeit by a seriously slim margin. The scenario of a late departure to Corzine putting him over the top is certainly possible, but we have very good, recent, polling data available here that does not point to a pending surge. All indications are that this one is going to be a squeaker either way and the statistical evidene says that Christie is more likely than not to win, although by no means assured. The betting odds seem about right, although faced with those odds, I'd be inclined to lay $108 on Christie to win $100.
Things to watch:
(1) Voter turnout -- high is good for Corzine, low is good for Christie. Corzine needs all those new Obama voters to show up in an off-year -- the GOP stalwarts almost always show up.
(2) The Daggett effect -- how many voters dump Daggett late for another candidate? History has shown times where Independents get dumped at the last minute when it is clear they can't win. But will these voters abandon Daggett and if so, who will they vote for?
(3) Ballot Burial -- New Jersey's pro-two party balloting laws bury Daggett amidst a bunch of nobody independents that litter the ballot, while the top two candidates get top billing. This could cost him votes, but again, to where will they go?
(4) Suburban South Jersey -- Newark and Camden will vote for Corzine, the rural northern and central part of the State will go for Christie...but where will the greater Cherry Hill area vote? That's the swing part of the state and will probably tip the election.
This is THE race to watch tomorrow night, and I'll be watching closely.
Finally, to New York-23, where we simply don't have good data to make a statistically-based call. Two days ago, Republican Dede Scozzafava suspended her campaign. Yesterday, she endorsed Democrat Bill Owens.
We have one poll, taken today by Siena that took place after both of these developments. It shows Conservative Candidate Doug Hoffman 41%, Owens at 36% and Scozzafava (who is still on the ballot), showing up at 6%. It appears that the Scozzafava voters (who are mostly Republicans and Republican-leaners, after all) are breaking somewhat more for Hoffman than Owens. 6% of people are either protesting or didn't get the memo that Scozzafava is out.
I can't make a mathematical prediction, but from this little bit that we do know, this certainly appears to continue to be a Lean GOP Hold. On the betting odds below, I'd still bet on Owens. I expected Hoffman to win, but 2.3 to 1 is reasonably long odds for such a turbulent race.
What Others Are Saying:
RealClearPolitics: No prediction
Intrade Betting Odds: Hoffman is a 2.3 to 1 favorite (actually "anyone but Owens" is the 2.3:1 favorite, but for all intents and purposes, that means Hoffman at this point.)
If you live in Virginia, New Jersey or New York's 23rd Congressional District or even if you just have local races to contend with, please vote, regardless of your political stripes. I do my best to project races, but in the end, real votes count, not my predictions. Let your voice be heard!
And tune in to this site for coverage of election night 2009.
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Scozzofava Out -- What Are The Implications?
Republican nominee Dede Scozzofava has suspended her campaign in the lone federal office race next week, New York's 23rd congressional district. Recognizing that her election prospects were looking increasingly dim, with polls showing her in third place in a three-way battle with both a Democrat and a Conservative party candidate, Scozzofava yesterday released her supporters although stopped short of endorsing Conservative Hoffman, who has surged in the polls following high profile endorsements from national Republicans.
The conventional wisdom is that with Scozzofava out, most of her support will go to Hoffman, who was already at or close to even in the polls and put him over the top, to become the first Independent elected to the House since Socialist Bernie Sanders of Vermont left the House to become a Senator (although it appears highly likely that Hoffman would, for all intents and purposes, be a Republican once elected.)
The conventional wisdom may be right, but there is also a possiblity that Scozzofava supporters will look at Hoffman as too conservative. We likely won't get polling to tell us.
I'll leave this one a Lean GOP Hold for now.
The conventional wisdom is that with Scozzofava out, most of her support will go to Hoffman, who was already at or close to even in the polls and put him over the top, to become the first Independent elected to the House since Socialist Bernie Sanders of Vermont left the House to become a Senator (although it appears highly likely that Hoffman would, for all intents and purposes, be a Republican once elected.)
The conventional wisdom may be right, but there is also a possiblity that Scozzofava supporters will look at Hoffman as too conservative. We likely won't get polling to tell us.
I'll leave this one a Lean GOP Hold for now.
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