Scozzofava Out -- What Are The Implications?

Republican nominee Dede Scozzofava has suspended her campaign in the lone federal office race next week, New York's 23rd congressional district. Recognizing that her election prospects were looking increasingly dim, with polls showing her in third place in a three-way battle with both a Democrat and a Conservative party candidate, Scozzofava yesterday released her supporters although stopped short of endorsing Conservative Hoffman, who has surged in the polls following high profile endorsements from national Republicans.

The conventional wisdom is that with Scozzofava out, most of her support will go to Hoffman, who was already at or close to even in the polls and put him over the top, to become the first Independent elected to the House since Socialist Bernie Sanders of Vermont left the House to become a Senator (although it appears highly likely that Hoffman would, for all intents and purposes, be a Republican once elected.)

The conventional wisdom may be right, but there is also a possiblity that Scozzofava supporters will look at Hoffman as too conservative. We likely won't get polling to tell us.

I'll leave this one a Lean GOP Hold for now.