Down to 19,000 Votes

It usually doesn't fail - when I start to express self-doubt, results immediately start to prove out my initial hypothesis.

The margin in the Virginia Governor's race is down to 19,000 votes or 1.1% with 17% of the vote left to count.  The win, Terry McAullife would need to carry 6.5% more of the remaining vote than Ken Cuccinelli, a seemingly very achievable feat, given that Fairfax County is still only at 55% reporting.

Still looks like a McAullife win, although I doubt he will make the 3-4% margin that I had been professing.

Chris Christie's early margin is 17%, but with only a small percent of the vote in.

Oh, by the way, Bill DeBlasio has won, in the biggest no brainer of the night.

Is That an Egg Flying Towards My Face?

Might Ken Cuccinelli pull off the big upset?  If you are watching the Virginia returns real-time, you know that Cuccinelli seems to have this persistent 40-50K vote lead that doesn't seem to diminish as more returns come in.

With 71% of the vote in, he still leads by 3.1%.

I can still make the counter argument effectively.  Only 36% of the vote is in from Fairfax County.  Only 42% form Loudon County.  In other words, Northern Virginia, the Democratic part of the state still has a lot of votes to count.

But I'm starting to have some self-doubt....

Results Still Tracking to a 3-4% McAullife Win

I've been watching the returns closely and I believe the returns still reflect a likely Terry McAullife win in Virginia by 3 to 4% of the vote, despite Cuccinelli's continued lead by over 3% with 57% of the vote counted.

Looking at some key counties:
McAullife is running slightly ahead of Obama's 2012 numbers in Arlington, Falls Church and Alexandria (big Democratic strongholds)
McAullife is running behind Obama's numbers in Norfolk County, another key Democratic stronghold, but still winning the county by 14%
The other big Northern Virginia county, Fairfax County is falling almost exactly in line with 2012.

Final Exit Poll Data in Virginia Shows a Closer Race

After analyzing and weighting the exit data, McAullife still leads based on the exit polls, but it shows far closer race than either the pre-election polls or the initial exit poll results, with McAullife showing up with a razor-thin margin of 47%-45%-7%.

It might get interesting.  Again, looking at the early returns, it looks more like a 3 to 4% McAullife win, versus the 7% lead Cuccinelli shows in the early-ish returns.

Hey - what's election night without a little drama?

Is Bradley Byrne vs. Dean Young a Republican Bellweather?

In an oddity of election night efficiencies, a special election Republican primary run-off is happening tonight in Alabama.

Mainstream Republican Bradley Byrne, a former educator faces Dean Young, a Tea Party fire-brand.  It is a clear choice of reasonable conservative versus wing nut.  We've seen a lot of wing nuts win these kinds of races in the past.  Is the GOP over the Tea Party?  Are they tired of losing races they should win by running radical candidates?

I'm not sure we will get the answer from this race.

Alabama's 1st District is WAY to the right of the country as a whole.  It went for Mitt Romney by 25 points.  The Cook Political report rates it an R +15 district, meaning it is 15 points more conservative than the nation as a whole (the Romney numbers would place it at closer to R+30.)  A Tea Party candidate winning in an almost can't-lose general election wouldn't be a shocker.

Byrne winning would actually be news, as it would show a rejection of the Tea Party in the depths of the red heartland.  Byrne got more votes in the first wave of the primary, clocking in at 35% versus 23% for Young, although obviously short of the 50% needed to avoid a run-off.

Byrne would figure to be the favorite, starting from the larger base.  But polling is scant and it wouldn't shock me to see another Tea Party darling pull off this race - a result that I don't think has much larger significance.

In the past 6 years, the GOP has given away Senate races in Missouri, Delaware, Nevada and had a write-in save them from giving away one in Alaska.  Will they learn and get their act together?

NJ Governor's Race Called at 8:00:01, VA Early Returns Indicative of McAullife Win

No surprise here - Chris Christie wins easily.  The race was called the second the polls closed.  Exit polling indicated impressive numbers across demographics, winning women by 13 points and holding his own with Latinos, winning a minority, but still impressive 45%.

Don't be deceived by the early vote count with Cuccinelli up 53%-40%.  Early returns in Virginia are very much in line with the 2012 Presidential race, indicating a likely McAullife win.  Returns from counties across the state largely mirror Obama's margins - Obama won Virginia by 4% in 2012.  This would be somewhat closer than the exit polling and my projection, but would still put McAullife in the Governor's mansion.

Early Exit Polls in Virginia Mirror My Projection

The early exit polling shows a 50-43-7 split for McAulife, in line with my projection.  These polls clearly have a margin of error and sometimes suffer from sampling error, but I tend to believe them since they mirror all the pre-election data.  If Sarvis holds on to 7%, that will be impressive for an independent / libertarian candidate, although it probably says more about disgust with the major party choices as anything else.