Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Raw Exit Polling Data -- Deceptive and Misinforming

Why is CNN showing raw data from exit polls? Anyone who knows anything about the last decade of exit polling knows that there are huge problems in sample selection, both from self-selection of voters and from the behavior of poll takers at polling stations. Showing the raw numbers in close races adds nothing to the dialogue as those numbers are as likely to be completely wrong as they are to be right. For those looking to glean some meaning, the polls tend to skew more Democratic than the actual results, although polling firms have been attempting to adjust to compensate in the last couple of cycles, so who knows at this point.

At any rate, look at actual results, ignore the "raw exit polls".

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