This is raw data, so take it with a grain of salt, but here is how a couple of swing counties in New Jersey are looking:
No results yet from our big three, but we have on fairly complete report from a swing county:
Gloucester Counthy -- 84% reporting, Christie by 3%
Gloucester County exactly reflected the statewide results in 2005, so if this holds in 2009 and this lead holds in Gloucester county, Christie would win by that same 3%.
That's a lot of ifs, but it supports the theory of a close Christie win.
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