2010 Senate Tracker -- Edition 1

Edition 1.0 of my statistical tracker shows the GOP poised to take 6 seats from the Democrats (4 to 8, depending on the very close races), in line with most of my recent non-statistical projections, but with some obvious race rating changes. Harry Reid is back in the lead and Patty Murray has re-established her position. Meanwhile, Alaska has tightened up a great deal, thanks to Joe Miller's win, and Delaware is back in the DEM column, thanks to Christine O'Donnell's Tea Party Express ride to the nomination over Mike Castle.

Note that with the bad news in Delaware, the GOP would now not only need to win the two close races in which I am showing them trailing (California and Nevada), they would also need to take 2 out of the other 3 Democratic leaners (West Virginia, Connecticut and Washington.) Quite tough, but not completely impossible in a year like this.

In many of the races, we don't yet have the polling depth that I would like, as some races are presently covered by only one or two polling firms, lessening the capability of my averaging methods to smooth out sample error or bias. Having said this, I think this is a pretty accurate picture of the November election as it stands today.

In the House, I'm still projecting a GOP takeover at this point, with the generic polling average of averages at GOP +5.5%, yielding a projection for the new House of:
Republicans - 227, Democrats - 208

Other current averages for both the House and Senate:
realclearpolitics.com (toss-ups split evenly)
House: 224 Republicans, 211 Democrats
Senate: 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans, 2 Independents

electionprojection.com (does not designate toss-ups)
House: 218 Democrats, 217 Republicans
Senate: 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans, 2 Independents

electoral-vote.com (toss-ups split evenly)
House: 235 Democrats, 200 Republicans
Senate: 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans, 2 Independents

Correction: I had declared Tuesday the end of primary season, but there is actually a primary in Hawaii on Saturday. It is not one of much significance.

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