Pencils Down!

Final Projections:
Senate: 51 Democratic Caucus (49 Democrats, 2 Independents), 49 Republican Caucus (48 Republicans, 1 Independent)
House: 237 Republicans, 198 Democrats



Final numbers are in. GOP House numbers have improved at the very end with some strong generic polling to close out the season. No projection changes in the Senate...in the close races, I still predict the Democrats to hold on in Connecticut, California, West Virginia and Washington and Republican wins in Illinois, Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Kentucky and Missouri.

Bottom line: I project a strongly GOP House and a narrowly Democratic Senate. The GOP could still possibly win the Senate by taking my projected pick-ups and pulling off upsets in West Virginia and Washington.

Below is a comparison of the close races and House projections versus other major projection sites:


With the exception of Alaska, we are all projecting the same Senate results, but by varying margins, based on the different techniques for generating the averages. In the House, every other site is using a race-by-race analysis, whereas I am relying solely on generic polling, which I believe will produce at least an equally accurate and quite possibly a superior result. We shall see. Again, everyone is projecting the GOP to take the House, but by varying margins.

In the competitive Governor's races, I project:
Safe/Likely Dem: Arkansas, Maryland, New York
California: Brown (D) +7.2%
New Hampshire: Lynch (D) +7.0%
Minnesota: Dayton (D) +6.8%
Colorado: Hickenlooper (D) +5.5%
Hawaii: Abercrombie (D) +5.0%
Massachusetts: Patrick (D) +4.8%
Oregon: Kitzhaber (D) +2.7%
Vermont: Shumlin (D) +2.0%
Florida: SInk (D) +0.4%
Rhode Island: Chaffee (I) +7.0%
Connecticut: Foley (R) +1.8%
Ohio: Kasich (R) +3.6%
Illinois: Brady (R) +4.3%
Pennsylvania: Corbett (R) +7.5%
Georgia: Deal (R) +8.4%
Wisconsin: Walker (R) +8.8%
Safe/Likely GOP: Arizona, New Mexico, South Carolina, Texas, Arkansas, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, Alabama, Kansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Wyoming, Idaho, Nebraska, South Dakota, Utah

Total Projection (including incumbents not up): 30 Republicans, 20 Democrats

Things to Watch for Tomorrow
(1) Early Senate Bell Weather
West Virginia is in Eastern time and will be extremely instructive about the course of the rest of the night. If this one goes Republican, Democrats are at real risk of losing the House. If it goes Democratic, it's almost impossible for them to do so.

(2) Early House Bell Weathers
Watch for these key races on the East Coast to see how big the GOP majority is going to be:
Connecticut's 4th
New Jersey's 3rd (my home district)
New York's 24th
North Carolina's 8th and 11th
Delaware's At-Large

If the GOP runs the table in these races, it could be a very, very ugly night for the Dems...they could be reduced to 170 seats or less. If the DEMs run the sweep here, we might be looking at a closely divided House.

(3) THE Key Governor's Race
Florida is probably the closest and among the most important Governorships in the country. Sure, New York, Texas and California also vote, but those outcomes are fairly well known (GOP in Texas, Dems in New York and Cali), plus Florida being a swing state, aren't you interested in knowing who gets to appoint the next Katherine Harris?

(4) Alaska Senate Craziness
Polls close relatively late in Alaska, but let's face it, no one knows what is going to happen in this race. A once-in-a-lifetime write-in victor? An after hours Tea Party? A Democrat splitting the difference? This is one worth watching.

Note that if Murkowski shows as well as she is polling, the result may not be known for days. The write-ins will only be tallied if "write-in" has more votes than the leading named candidate. And you can only imagine the ballot battles that ensue if that happens. Alaska law requires only that the intent of the voter be clear on a write-in. So what does that mean a voter has to write in order for a vote to count for Murkowski? Your guess is as good as mine, but I bet a lot of lawyers will try to figure it out if "write-in" wins tomorrow.

Please Vote
I believe firmly in the statistical techniques that I use here and I'm proud of my results in the past. I try very hard to be accurate on this site. But at the end of the day, polls don't vote, people do. We all have the power to do something completely different than we've been telling pollsters tomorrow.

So, please, vote tomorrow, regardless of your political stripes. Make your voice heard.

Live Blogging Begins Tomorrow Night
I'll be on tomorrow sharing my observations after the polls close.
Thanks for hanging with me this election season and I look forward to some fun tomorrow.

If you like this site, tell all your friends to join us tomorrow. I plan to begin around 7 PM.

Latest House and Senate Updates, What You Need to Know About Governor's Races

Projection Totals
Senate: 51 Democratic Caucus (49 Dems, 2 Ind), 49 Republican Caucus (48 Reps, 1 Ind)
House: 231 Republicans, 204 Democrats




A lot of new polls since Thursday, but absolutely no rating changes in any of the Senate races. Of note...Washington seems to be getting even closer, which may be a very important race the way this is shaping up. Basically, to win control of the Senate, the GOP needs to hold all the seats that I have in their column ("leans" included) and take both West Virginia and Washington. In my approximation, this still makes Washington approximately "Seat #51".

In the House, we have tightened ever-so-slightly, but the GOP is still projected to win back the House by a wide majority. It's hard to imagine a scenario where they hold on to the House, although stranger things have happened.

The State Houses
I have not been keeping a statistical projection of all the Governor's races in the country as this site mostly focuses on national politics, but they bear a mention as the parties in power after this election will have significant control of the redistricting process after the 2010 census results are released at the end of the year. Every state (except for the ones with only 1 House seat) will be drawing new districts and control of the legislature and the Governor's mansion means the ability to gerrymander for your party.

Here is the landscape for Governor's races:
There are several states that do not have Governor's races this year. New Jersey and Virginia have "odd-year" governor's races, which the GOP won last year. Several other states have even-year elections that match the Presidential calendar. These are:
Washington, Montana, South Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Louisiana, North Carolina and West Virginia.

Arkansas has sort of an odd system where the Governor is on 2-year terms, so the race is up this year and in 2012.

All of the rest are up for 4 year terms this time.

The Democrats have 7 seats not up for re-election and 3 that are not particularly competitive.
The GOP have 6 seats not up and 14 that are not particularly competitive.

This leaves 20 basically locked in for the GOP and 10 for the DEMs.

Of the remaining seats, here is how they break down:
Dems Lead: California, Colorado, New Hampshire, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota
Polls Split/Very Close: Connecticut, Florida, Oregon, Vermont
GOP Leads: Illinois, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Wisconsin
Independent Leads: Rhode Island

Of the 4 very close races, here are my current statistical projections:
Connecticut: Malloy (D) +2.6%
Florida: Scott (R) +1.2%
Oregon: Dudley (R) +0.8%
Vermont: Shamlin (D) +3.2%

So at this point, I project:
US Governors: 31 Republicans, 18 Democrats, 1 Independent
It isn't quite as bad as it looks for the Democrats, since they will control some very big states with a lot of congressional seats, including New York, likely California and still possibly Florida (although they trail in my numbers narrowly there.) Still, this gives the GOP 30-some Presidential candidates in 2012 and a lot of clout in the states.

Tomorrow I will do my final projections and a full run down / watching guide to the mid-terms. I will be live-blogging on Tuesday after the polls start to close.

If you like this site, tell your friends.

17 Days to Go, My Personal Endorsement

Just A Little Over Two Weeks...
Minor changes this week in what is shaping up to be a pick 'em battle for control of the Senate. We probably won't know for sure who will be in the majority and the minority until election night and beyond.




We have new polling this week in virtually every state. What changes there were last week were modestly favorable to the Democrats, with the projected winner changing in one state, flipping the projected operating control of the Senate to 51-49 from 50-50 a week ago.

Rating Changes:
Illinois -- in what continues to be consistently one of the closest races in the nation, new polling flips the race very slightly in the blue direction as the race rating moves to Slight Lean Hold by a margin of just 0.04%.

Connecticut -- could a massive GOP upset from WWE Exec Linda McMahon be brewing? I'm not calling it yet, but the race is definitely tightening as McMahon has gone on air with ads reminding everyone of Richard Blumenthal's shameful lies about Vietnam service. The race is now a Lean Hold.

Washington -- in the back-and-forth race between Patty Murray and Dino Rossi which has usually shown Murray with a lead but by varying margins over the course of the past two weeks, Murray pulls out to a slightly larger lead. Lean Hold.

Alaska -- at last some new polls in the weirdest race in the nation. Joe Miller still leads but incumbent Republican and longtime Sarah Palin adversary Lisa Murkowski is closing in via write-in (although I continue to wonder if all those poll respondents will actually take the time to write her name in.) Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the GOP, so this battle is GOP vs. Independent in a technical sense only. Slight Lean Miller, for now.

North Carolina -- I'm not sure the Democrats ever really had a chance at this one except in the very early going. It's tightened just a little and moves down to a Likely Hold, but I'd frankly be shocked if the Democrats found a way to pull this one out.

Ohio -- this once toss-up race is not completely out of the Democrats' reach. Safe Hold.

My Projection: 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, 2 Independents
Realclearpolitics (no toss-ups): 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans, 2 Independents
Electionprojection: 48 Democrats, 50 Republicans, 2 Independents
Electoral-Vote: 49 Democrats, 48 Republicans, 2 Independents, 1 Tie

So, this week, we are all still calling for a Democratic operating control of the Senate but by varying margins...from 50 to 52 voting seats.

In the House, our average of averages stands at GOP +7.9%.

My Projection: 202 Democrats, 233 Republicans
Realclearpolitics (splitting toss-ups): 204 Democrats, 231 Republicans
Electionprojection: 203 Democrats, 232 Republicans
Electoral-Vote (splitting toss-ups): 217 Democrats, 218 Republicans

Electoral-Vote has the House very close (although still a GOP control pick-up), whereas the rest of us have the Republicans winning by a fairly substantial margin. I'm marginally predicting the largest Republican majority, although I don't pretend to have less than a 1 seat margin of error.

Jon Runyan for the House
I don't pretend that anyone should particularly care how I vote. I urge everyone to educate themselves about the issues and vote the way that they believe is right. I do, however, always share my personal plan a couple of weeks before the election and share my reasoning, in the hope that my thought process might shed some light on your individual quest for the truth.

For those who have started reading this space recently, they will know that I'm a registered Democrat with a strong Independent streak. I voted for Democrats in the last 3 Presidential elections, but did not support Clinton in 1996. In my moves across the country, I've voted for 2 Republican Senators (John Warner in Virginia and then-Republican Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania.) I voted Independent in this past years Governors race, although based on Chris Christie's performance so far, I frankly wish I had voted Republican.

I live in New Jersey's third congressional district, a classic swing district in the suburbs of Philadelphia. Incumbent first term congressman John Adler (D) is a moderate with blue dog fiscal tendencies (he voted for the stimulus but against the health care bill.) Former Eagle lineman Jon Runyan is a committed conservative on both fiscal and social issues.

My decision is based on both macro and micro circumstances.

On a macro level, my view is that the single greatest threat to our country in our massive and growing federal debt. Neither party has presented a credible solution. Democrats seem content to spend away, not touch entitlements and continue to spend heavily on the military in Afghanistan. They are proposing new infrastructure spending and want to extend 75% of the cost of the Bush tax cuts, by extending them for everyone making less than $250,000.

Republicans are no better. No entitlement reform. Higher military spending if anything. 100% of the Bush tax cuts. Empty statements about "cutting waste" ignoring the fact that it is mathematically impossible to balance the budget, maintain entitlements, cut taxes and strength the military at the same time.

My only hope for progress is, frankly, gridlock. A Republican congress unwilling to pass spending bills to a Democratic President. It's not a fool-proof plan for sure, but it worked pretty well in the 1990s.

At the local level, John Adler has run a scummy campaign. His campaign planted a fake "tea-party" candidate on the ballot to attempt to siphon off votes from Runyan. He has run misleading ads about property tax breaks Runyan's family received. He hasn't talked about the issues much and when he has he's sounded like he has no backbone.

Runyan and the Republicans turn my stomach in a lot of ways. Their backwards views on gay rights, immigration and a host of other social issues frankly make me pretty sick. I wasn't sure until very recently what I was going to do in this election, precisely because of those issues. A friend of mine made a point to me that made the decision very clear. He simply said:
"All the social issues you care about don't matter if the country isn't here 50 years from now."

Managing the deficit is a matter of survival for our country, and no, I don't think that is overly dramatic. Our best shot for forcing our government officials to deal with the deficit is a divided government.

Reluctantly, Jon Runyan for Congress.

Is Biden Vote #51? GOP Sweep, Split Power or Narrow Dem Majorities -- Why We Still Don't Know, The Spineless and Irresponsible Majority

25 days until election day 2010 and majority control of both Houses of congress is very much still in doubt. The Senate, especially, will likely be controlled by one party or the other by a razor-thin margin. Here are my latest projections:




Every close race had a new poll this week except for Alaska and Wisconsin. In Wisconsin, Russ Feingold has been steadily losing ground, and I suspect that when we find a new poll, he will be in the same or a slightly worse spot than he is in our current projection. The maverick from Wisconsin is in real trouble.

In Alaska, I'm dying to see a poll in the fascinating, confusing and dynamic face-off between Tea-Party Republican Joe Miller and Republican Turned Write-in Independent Incumbent Lisa Murkowski. This will be a very tough race to project, because of the unusual dynamics.

Key Rating Moves This Week:
Maryland -- Barbara Mikulski is safe. The Maryland race is on no one's radar. A new Washington Post poll officially puts her average in the safe category.

Connecticut -- embattled state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal resolidifies his once large lead slightly. The race is now a Likely Hold for the Dems.

California -- Barbara Boxer had been pulling away from ex-CEO Carly Fiorina in the past few weeks, but the race has tightened again in the past week and is now only a Slight Lean Hold for Boxer.

Nevada -- a continued close race (in fact, it was within 0.01% last week) moves slightly to the right in the polling, with Tea Partier Sharron Angle pulling out to a 2 point lead. The race now rates a Slight Lean Pick-Up for the GOP.

West Virginia -- this one started with a big Dem lead for incumbent Gub Manchin, but has moved steadily to the right in a state where the President and the Dems in power nationally are highly unpopular. It now rates a Lean Pick-Up for the GOP.

New Hampshire -- mainstream Republican Kelly Ayotte has appeared for months to be running away with this race, but it has started to tighten in the late stages. This race now rates only a Lean Hold for the GOP.

Missouri -- this one appears to be rapidly becoming a lost cause for the Dems. Bellweather states ring for the party in the lead and the GOP is winning the campaign so far. Likely GOP Hold.

Arizona -- same story as Maryland, but for the other party. John McCain is not going to lose, unless he suddenly breaks back out his "the fundamentals of the economy are strong" line. Safe GOP Hold.

My Projection: Democrats 48, Republicans 50, Independents 2 (Democrats retain control with Biden's tie-breaking vote, barring any defections)
realclearpolitics (no toss-ups): Democrats 48, Republicans 50, Independents 2
electoral-vote: Republicans 50, Democrats 47, Independents 2, 1 Tie
electionprojection: Democrats 48, Republicans 50, Independents 2

So, we are all basically on the same page, for the second week in a row.

In the House,
My average of generic polling surges to the right, with the GOP showing at +7.2% now. The biggest driver is the latest Gallup polling, which contained a lot of refinement to their projections. In fact, Gallup has 2 likely voter models that they are using, one for a low turnout election and one for a high turnout election. Since those polls rely on the same sample and Gallup is not advising which model they believe, I am weighting both models at 50% of a normal poll. The Gallup polls show the best numbers for the GOP with GOP +13% in the high turnout scenario and GOP +18% in the low turnout scenario. If Gallup is right, the House will be a blow-out. I'm not quite showing that yet in my averages.

My Projection: 232 Republicans, 203 Democrats
realclearpolitics (splitting toss-ups): 229 Republicans, 206 Democrats
electoral-vote (splitting toss-ups): 219 Democrats, 216 Republicans
electionprojection: 222 Republicans, 213 Democrats

So, on the House, the projections are all over the map. Basically, my projection and realclearpolitics show a big gain for the GOP (although not quite an outright blowout), electionprojection has a narrow GOP victory and electoral-vote has the DEMs retaining the House. Obviously, the House is harder to project than the Senate.

Bottom line, we still don't really know which party will control either House come next year.

Budgets Matter
I've been heavy on the polls and light on the political commentary as of late, as I typically do as we close in on an election, but I would be remiss if I didn't say shame on the Democrats for adjourning Congress with no budget outline and no appropriations bills passed. A kick the can down the road continuing resolution is all that Congress could muster. No debate on tax policy or spending priorities. Uncertainty for both governmental agencies as to what their budget will be and businesses and individuals.

Responsibility number one for congress is to manage budgets and taxation. On this fundamental test, Pelosi and Reid and company have showed themselves to be spineless, unwilling to even have a debate or declare positions going into an election. Are they even trying to win back the hearts and minds of the American people?

1 Month and Counting....

31 short days to go before the 2010 mid-terms. Here is the latest projection tracker:




We have new polls in 20 states. The only states without new polls that would be worth seeing are Delaware (aren't you dying to know how Christine O'Donnell is faring after all the national publicity?) and Missouri (a race presently rated Lean GOP, but which could be widening or narrowing, for all we know.)

The only two races where the actual projected winner changed are:
West Virginia -- in yet another race that seemed like a lock for a well known Democrat, the GOP has narrowed and now pulled out to a slight lead. It is worth noting that at this point, only Rasmussen is polling the race, therefore the accuracy of this projection is significantly reduced versus states where we have a variety of polls to weight and average. Hopefully, given how close the race now is, other firms will come in.

Nevada -- I told you I wouldn't rate any more toss-ups, and I'm sticking to that. But, let's be honest, a 0.01% lead for Harry Reid doesn't amount to anything, given that my average error is several multiples of that lead. But technically, at least, this race shifts from the GOP column to the DEM column this week.

Other races on the move:
New York (Gillebrand) -- moves back to "Likely Hold". There was 1 poll, in the average both last week and this week, that had Gillebrand's lead at a mere 1 point. Other polls have a much wider margin than that, and as more polls have rolled in, the averages have shifted back in the DEMs favor. Now, the 1 point poll could be an outlier, or it could later be validated by other polling, but so far, everything else has Gillebrand's lead at at least double digits.

Connecticut -- embattled AG Blumenthal continues to have a faltering campaign, putting this dark blue state more and more in play. This race, in many ways, is starting to look like a replay of the Scott Brown special election last year, where a anti-Democratic national mood, combined with an awful Democratic candidate, let the GOP slip one by the DEMs. The race moves down to a "Slight Lean Hold".

Washington -- Who would've thought going into this cycle that Patty Murray would be a realistic GOP target? Certainly not I. She still leads, in a race that has been bouncing up and down the past few weeks, but it now averages out to a "Slight Lean Hold".

Kentucky -- Rand Paul still has to be favored in deep red Kentucky in a Republican year, but he can't seem to pull away. He keeps saying radical things, even by Kentucky standards. The race moves to a "Slight Lean Hold".

Colorado -- Buck is continuing to slowly open up a lead on a race that was a toss-up as recently as a month ago. Moves to "Lean GOP Pick-Up".

Alaska -- this will undoubtedly be one of the hardest races to poll, project or understand. Lisa Murkowski's write-in campaign has thrust things into chaos. Murkowski currently polls second to Joe Miller. Even though Murkowski is a current GOP Senator, for tracking purposes, we are considering her an Independent, as she is not running on the GOP ticket. This race moves to a "Lean GOP Hold", although the second-place poller, Murkowski, is actually the GOP incumbent. Confused yet? Incidentally, write-in candidates historically fall well short of their polling numbers. It will be interesting to see how this one turns out.

New Hampshire -- Kelly Ayotte is pulling away a bit again and this race goes to "Likely Hold". There appears to be a trend here, of mainstream Republicans having no issues and more fringe, tea-party candidates polling well behind where you would expect them (see Rand Paul, Sharron Angle, Joe Miller and Christine O'Donnell)...you heard that prediction first here...

Georgia -- not much of a rating changes....Isakson is almost certain to win. His lead moves from 19 points to 21 points, which technically changes the rating from "Likely Hold" to "Safe Hold". Really, Isakson was pretty safe last week too.

So, the projection is still for a 49/49/2 Senate with Democrats having a 51/49 operating advantage.

Other sites current projections:
realclearpolitics.com (no toss-ups): 49 D/49 R/2 I
electoral-vote.com: 48 D/49 R/2 I / 1 exactly even (WA)
electionprojection.com: 49 D/49 R/ 2 I

So, we are basically all on the same page at this point as far as the Senate is concerned.

In the House...
The generic polls have tightened to an average of averages of GOP +2.5%.

My Projection: 218 R / 217 D
realclearpolitics.com (splitting toss-ups): 226 R / 209 D
electoral-vote.com: 210 R / 225 D
electionprojection.com: 222 R / 213 D

You can see 2 trends here...first, almost all of the projections are closer than they were last week. Second, they have diverged. 3 out of 4 still predict a GOP takeover of the House (electoral-vote being the exception), but all have the margin very close.

It's interesting....we are 4 and a half weeks from the election, and in my eyes, both the House and the Senate are very much up for grabs. There are feasible scenarios for the Democrats retaining both or for the GOP taking both. The one scenario that would really surprise me would be a GOP takeover of the Senate but not the House. The House still seems marginally more winnable.

So what's the smart money betting on? Well, I don't know how smart a bunch of gamblers are, but here are the latest odds, courtesy of intrade.com:

Odds of a GOP House Takeover: 75%
Odds of a GOP Senate Takeover: 24%

Sounds about right to me.

Here are some odds on our closest races:
Rand Paul in Kentucky: 80%
Harry Reid in Nevada: 55%
Richard Blumenthal in Connecticut: 69%
Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania: 85%

We'll keep an eye on the gamblers as well as the polls. If you like this site, tell your friends.

2010 Senate Tracker -- Edition 1

Edition 1.0 of my statistical tracker shows the GOP poised to take 6 seats from the Democrats (4 to 8, depending on the very close races), in line with most of my recent non-statistical projections, but with some obvious race rating changes. Harry Reid is back in the lead and Patty Murray has re-established her position. Meanwhile, Alaska has tightened up a great deal, thanks to Joe Miller's win, and Delaware is back in the DEM column, thanks to Christine O'Donnell's Tea Party Express ride to the nomination over Mike Castle.

Note that with the bad news in Delaware, the GOP would now not only need to win the two close races in which I am showing them trailing (California and Nevada), they would also need to take 2 out of the other 3 Democratic leaners (West Virginia, Connecticut and Washington.) Quite tough, but not completely impossible in a year like this.

In many of the races, we don't yet have the polling depth that I would like, as some races are presently covered by only one or two polling firms, lessening the capability of my averaging methods to smooth out sample error or bias. Having said this, I think this is a pretty accurate picture of the November election as it stands today.

In the House, I'm still projecting a GOP takeover at this point, with the generic polling average of averages at GOP +5.5%, yielding a projection for the new House of:
Republicans - 227, Democrats - 208

Other current averages for both the House and Senate:
realclearpolitics.com (toss-ups split evenly)
House: 224 Republicans, 211 Democrats
Senate: 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans, 2 Independents

electionprojection.com (does not designate toss-ups)
House: 218 Democrats, 217 Republicans
Senate: 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans, 2 Independents

electoral-vote.com (toss-ups split evenly)
House: 235 Democrats, 200 Republicans
Senate: 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans, 2 Independents

Correction: I had declared Tuesday the end of primary season, but there is actually a primary in Hawaii on Saturday. It is not one of much significance.

If you like this site, tell your friends.

Another One Bites the Dust in Alaska, The Pre-Season View of the Elections, What You Can Expect the Wednesday After

The Tea Party Breaks Another Establishment Republican
I'll admit it, this one caught me surprise. Lisa Murkowski wasn't even on the radar for being at risk of losing her Senate seat in the Alaska Republican primary. Yet virtual unknown Tea Bagger Joe Miller pulled off a narrow but stunning upset. This shows a few things, in my opinion:
(1) The Tea Party is becoming the overriding force in Republican primaries in some states
In Utah, Kentucky, Nevada and Alaska, Tea Party loyalists upset establishment-backed candidates to take Senate nominations. In Florida, while Marco Rubio is not exactly a Tea Bagger, the movement certainly had an influence in pushing Crist out of the Republican race.

(2) But Let's Not Overstate the Case
The Tea-Party candidates have lost where the establishment had good candidates. They couldn't defeat Mark Kirk in Illinois. The didn't even come close to unseating John McCain. In Delaware, Castle won the GOP nomination virtually unopposed, despite basically being the antithesis of a Tea Party Republican.

The movement is evolving in an attempt to be more mainstream, but my fundamental belief that this is a fringe movement is unchanged. They still have yet to win a general election race, with disasters in the House special elections where they have taken over the GOP base. They still have only one shot at winning a Senate seat in a mainstream race, the battle for Harry Reid's seat in Nevada, and victory is far from assured there. Even in the ultra-conservative states where they are winning nominations, such as Kentucky, the seats are not a lock.

(3) If the Tea-Party Wins, the GOP Loses Long-Term
In a Republican year, you can run candidates that are further to the right and potentially still be victorious. But things change quickly in Washington. Remember all that talk of the permanent Democratic majority? Yeah, that's so 18 months ago. In a more balanced year, Tea Party Republicans will have big challenges holding on to GOP gains. The Republican party would have been better served to get more Castles and less Pauls if they want to make more permanent gains.

(4) The Underlying Cause Has Traction
As radical as a lot of the Tea Party movement is, the fundamental concern about deficits, taxes and the size of government has real traction and resonance with the American people. When deficits rise, people get mad at Washington. This is a lot like Ross Perot's movement in 1992, which ultimately netted him 19% of the Presidential vote, and might have netted him more if he'd been a better candidate.

But United We Stand faded quickly, as I would expect the Tea Party to do, because as the economy improves, the anger subsides.

This all makes for a fascinating election year.

An Updated Looked at November
The traditional view of elections is that campaigns really start in earnest on Labor Day. People start to tune in, debates begin and media buys pick way up. That being said, campaigns have been starting earlier and earlier, so we already have some good perspective on where the races stand heading into this critical season. Let's look at the latest.

We'll go race by race, from most Democratic-leaning to most Republican-leaning.
Safe Democratic Holds (4)
Hawaii, no new polls
Maryland, 1 new poll: Mikulski +16%
New York (Schumer), no new polls
Vermont, no new polls

Likely Democratic Holds (4)
Oregon, 1 new poll: Wyden +20%
Connecticut, 2 new polls: Blumenthal +7%, +10% (close to moving from likely to lean)
New York (Gillebrand), 3 new polls: Gillebrand +15%, 20%, 25%
West Virginia, 1 new poll: Manchin +6% (close to moving from likely to lean)

Lean Democratic Holds (2)
California, 2 new polls: Boxer +5%, Fiornia +2% (close to moving to toss-up)
RATING CHANGE (from Toss-Up to Lean Hold): Nevada, 3 new polls: Reid +1%, 3%, 4%

Democratic Controlled Toss-Ups (2)
Wisconsin, 1 new poll: Johnson +1%
Illinois, 2 new polls: both polls tied

Republican Controlled Toss-Ups (1)
RATING CHANGE (from Lean Ind Pick-Up to Toss-Up): Florida, 4 new polls: Crist, +4%, +7%, Rubio +5%, +10%

Lean GOP Pick-Up (3)
Colorado, 2 new polls: Buck +4%, +9%
Pennsylvania, 3 new polls: Toomey +6%, +9%, +10%
RATING CHANGE (from Lean Hold to Lean Pick-Up): Washington, 2 new polls: Rossi +3%, +7%

Lean GOP Hold (6)
Missouri, 2 new polls: Blunt +1%, +13%
Kentucky, 3 new polls: Paul +5%, +5%, +10%
New Hampshire, 2 new polls: Ayotte +8%, +13% (close to moving back to likely hold)
RATING CHANGE (from likely hold to lean hold): North Carolina, 1 new poll: Burr +9%
RATING CHANGE (from likely hold to lean hold): Alaska, 1 new poll: Miller +6%
RATING CHANGE (from toss-up to lean hold): Ohio, 2 new polls: Portman +6%, +7%

LIkely GOP PIck-Ups (2)
Delaware, 1 new poll: Castle +12%
Indiana, 1 new poll: Coats +21%

Likely GOP Holds (2)
Georgia, 1 new poll: Isakson +12%
RATING CHANGE (from Safe Hold to Likely Hold): Iowa, 2 new polls: Grassley +8%, +20%

Safe GOP Pick-Ups (2)
Arkansas, 1 new poll: Boozman +38%
North Dakota, 1 new poll: Hoeven +44%

Safe GOP Holds (8)
Kansas, 2 new polls: Moran +33%, +46%
Louisiana, 2 new polls: Vitter +12%, +21% (close to moving to Likely Hold)
South Dakota, no new polls
Alabama, 1 new poll: Shelby +32%
Idaho, no new polls
Oklahoma, 1 new poll, Coburn +42%
South Carolina, no new polls
Utah, 1 new poll: Lee +25%

All of this leaves us with the following projection ranges for the Senate:
Current Senate: 57 Democrats, 41 Republicans, 2 Independents
Projected Senate: 48-50 Democrats, 47-50 Republicans, 2-3 Independents
Central Projection: 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, 2 Independents

As we move closer into election season, I will be eliminating the "toss-up" rankings and focusing more and more on the strict mathematical projections.

In the House, the latest generic polling paints a very bleak picture for the Democrats, indeed, with some of the worst generic numbers on record in some polls. Our average of averages is presently at: Republicans +5.7%. This implies:

Current House: 255 Democrats, 178 Republicans, 2 Vacant
Projected House: 206 Democrats, 229 Republicans
Realclearpolitics House Projections (splitting the toss-ups): 212 Democrats, 223 Republicans
The Cook Political Repot (splitting the toss-ups): 232 Democrats, 203 Republicans
Electionprojection Projection: 215 Democrats, 220 Republicans

Cook has been the most conservative in calling races all year, as he tends to need a lot of data to be willing to project an incumbent to be unseated. The other 3 tallies all tell the same story, whether you look at national polling and extrapolate (as I do) or do race-by-race analysis (as realclearpolitics and electionprojection do), you get the same story: the GOP has the advantage in taking back the House headed into the heart of campaign season.

What You Can Expect After a GOP Rout
So what exactly will happen if the GOP actually pulls off the kind of big rout that I and others currently show? Let's say they win the House and fall just shy in the Senate with 49 or 50 seats. A few things that I think that you would see fairly quickly:
(1) Some cabinet departures -- President Obama has held his top team together for 2 years, but when you see a big rout of an incumbent party, there tend to be a few changes in the Cabinet, such as when Bush dismissed Donald Rumsfeld. Incumbents don't like to fire their cabinet members during the election season, because it can be a sign of weakness, but after a loss, it happens a lot. Likely candidates? My top one would be TIm Geithner. Can't think of anyone that would be upset with a change at Treasury. Gates has also announced he will likely depart sometime in 2011, but this is unrelated to job performance, as he is highly popular in both parties.
(2) A Quick Search for Common Ground -- if the GOP controls the purse strings in the House, President Obama better figure out something that they can agree on. Middle class tax cuts? Payroll tax holidays? Maybe a revenue-neutral gas tax?
(3) Gridlock -- no immigration reform, no cap and trade....any "signature" issue of the Democrats is DOA in a GOP-controlled House. Depending on your political perspective, that could be a good thing or a bad thing.

It certainly is shaping up to be another historic year. Thanks for reading and I'll do my best to keep you posted on all the latest.



Projected New House

Latest 2010 Projections and My Unofficial Advance Guide

2010: No GOP Senate Control Yet
As the candidate fields are largely set in the Senate races, we've seen the polls somewhat stabilize, so only a few rating changes to report from the past month of polling. Here they are:
Nevada -- a major change here, as for the first time since I started tracking the races back in November 2009, this state is not projected a Republican pick-up. The race moves from Lean GOP Pick-Up to Toss-Up as Sharron Angle's somewhat unorthodox views and poorly run campaign cost the GOP ground. Last two polls have Reid at +1% and +2% respectively.

Wisconsin -- apparently Russ Feingold is not as beloved in Wisconsin as I once thought. The seemingly safe, then very much at risk (when Tommy Thompson appeared to be running), to safe again Senator is once again at risk. This race moves from a Lean Democratic Hold to a Toss-Up and could move further right with more polling. Last two polls have Feingold at even and -6% respectively.

New Hampshire -- the race for retiring Sen. Judd Gregg's seat tightens up a little as Ayotte is only up +3%, +8% and +12% in the last 3 polls. The race moves from a Likely GOP Hold to a Lean GOP Hold.

Lots of other new polls that don't facilitate rating changes:
Pennsylvania -- even and Toomey +6% in last two polls. Stays Lean GOP Pick-Up.
California -- Boxer +5%, +7% in last two polls. Stays Lean DEM Hold.
Washington -- Murray +2% in one new poll. Stays Lean DEM Hold.
Delaware -- Castle +11% in one new poll. A marked decline in lead but not enough on its own to move from a Likely GOP Pick-Up.
Indiana -- Coats +21% in one new poll. Stays a Likely GOP Pick-Up.
Oregon -- Wyden +16%, +18% in two new polls. Stays a Likely DEM Hold.
Connecticut -- Blumenthal appears to have stabilized from the damage he suffered from his false war vet stories. He is +13%, +17% in two new polls. Stays a Likely DEM Hold.
New York (Gillebrand) -- Gillebrand +22% in one new poll. Stays a Likely DEM Hold.
West Virginia -- Gov. Manchin is at +16% in one new poll. Stays a Likely DEM Hold.
Arkansas -- Boozman +19% to 25% in four new polls. Stays a Safe GOP Pick-Up.
Illinois -- Gianoullis +2% in one new poll. This remains a Toss-Up and continues to be the most competitive race of the year.
Missouri -- Blunt +6% in two new polls. Stays a Lean GOP Hold.
Kentucky -- Paul +3%, +3%, +8% in three polls. Stays a Lean GOP Hold.
Florida -- Crist is +6%, +7%, -2% in three new polls. Stays a Lean Independent Pick-Up for now, but it is getting close to a toss-up with Republican Rubio (Democrat Meeks continues to trail badly.)
North Carolina -- Burr +10%, +15% in two new polls. Stays a Likely GOP Hold.

All of which leaves us with:
Projected Democratic Holds (10)
Safe Holds (4)
Hawaii, New York (Schumer), Maryland, Vermont

Likely Holds (4)
Oregon, Connecticut, West Virginia, New York (Gillebrand)

Lean Holds (2)
California, Washington

Potential Democratic Pick-Ups (1)
Toss-Up - GOP Controlled (1)
Ohio

Potential GOP Pick-Ups (9)
Safe Pick-Ups (2)
Arkansas, North Dakota

Likely Pick-Ups (2)
Delaware, Indiana

Lean Pick-Ups (2)
Colorado, Pennsylvania

Toss-Up - DEM Controlled (3)
Nevada, Wisconsin, Illinois

Projected GOP Holds (16)
Safe Holds (9)
Kansas, Louisiana, Iowa, South Dakota, Alabama, Idaho, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Utah

Likely Holds (4)
Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Alaska

Lean Holds (3)
Missouri, Kentucky, New Hampshire

Potential Independent Pick-Ups (1)
Lean IND Pick-Up (1)
Florida

Projected Senate: 48-52 Democrats, 45-49 Republicans, 3 Independents
Central Projection: 50 Democrats, 47 Republicans, 3 Independents

My Guide to the 5 Most Interesting Races to Watch:
1. Illinois -- the race for President Barack Obama's old Senate seat is likely to be among the closest in the country and a bellweather of election night. If the DEMs win it, we are probably looking at modest losses of 6 or so Senate seats..if they lose that one it could be a close Senate.
2. Ohio -- the DEMs best chance for an actually pick-up in a classic large swing state that Obama won handily in 2008.
3. Florida -- Marco Rubio's epic battle with Charlie Crist is sure to entertain. A Crist victory could make him a kingmaker in a closely divided Senate and would be a win for moderates. A Rubio win would make him the biggest star in the GOP and immediately start talk of Presidential ambitions (probably not in 2012, although you never know, but certainly a contender in 2016.)
4. Washington -- the so called "51st Senate Seat", this is likely the one the GOP needs to win to regain control of the Senate, this erstwhile blue state could be the decider of Senate control for the next two years.
5. Kentucky -- is even dark red Kentucky ready for Rand Paul's brand of extreme libertarianism? We shall see.

In the House,

The GOP is WAY up in the generic ballot question, with our average of averages now at GOP +5.8%. This leads to:

My Projection: Republicans 228, Democrats 207
Realclearpolitics Projection (evenly splitting toss-ups): Democrats 218, Republicans 217
The Cook Political Report (evenly splitting toss-ups): Democrats 238, Republicans 197

Clearly either the race-by-race dynamics are a lot different on the ground or individual race analysis hasn't caught up to the national polls as we haven't seen this kind of divergence between the national generic ballot polls that I use and the race-by-race analysis that other sites use until now.

Either way, here are the races to watch:
(1) Louisiana's 2nd -- the most liberal district that elected a Republican in 2008 at Democrat +25%, Joseph Cao is the second most at-risk Republican in the House (the Hawaii special election silliness, sure to be reversed in November, doesn't really bear watching.) This might be the only 2008 GOP seat that the DEMs pick-up in 2010.

(2) Washington's 3rd -- a dead neutral district (it mirrors national voting patterns with neither party favored), it is also an open seat. Well worth attention as a national bellweather.

(3) Texas' 17th -- Chet Edwards is a Democrat in a very conservative (Republican +20%) district, precisely the kind of seat that has the GOP licking its chops.

(4) Ohio's 15th -- Mary Jo Kilroy won one of the closest races of 2008 in the Democratic sweep. She's under fire this time around.

(5) Arizona's 8th -- this race is somewhere around the seat that the GOP would need to take to regain control, both in terms of closeness in 2008 and in terms of early polling this time around. Gabrielle Giffords is at risk in this swing district (Republican +1%)

2010 Updates -- Is It Slipping Away from the DEMs?

The question all year has been the same -- not if the Democrats were going to lose seats in the House or Senate but how severe those losses would be. Looking at the trends, at the start of the year, the losses looked to be substantial, but not control-threatening in either House. Then came the special election of Scott Brown, the continued decline in the popularity of President Obama and increasing public outrage at continued tough economic conditions and huge budget deficits. For most of the spring and summer, the Democrats have been teetering on the edge of losing both houses of Congress, with, for the most part, it looking like a narrow escape in the Senate (49 or 50 Democrats eats plus 2 Democratic-caucusing Independents in most scenarios) with a less decisive view of the Senate (every look I've had in the past several months has been very close, with projected control flipping back and forth between the GOP and the DEMs.)

Now, in the summer, we have suffered through the BP disaster, the stock market pullback, and a slow, uneven economic recovery. So, it begs the question: are the Democrats on an irreversible downward trend that will cost them control of both houses of Congress?

My view is actually fairly unchanged...the landscape in the Senate makes it difficult, but not impossible for the GOP to regain control. The fact that races like California, Washington and Wisconsin are competitive gives the GOP a real, if outside shot. Those are the races to watch if you want to see who is going to control the Senate. There is no way the GOP can retake the Senate without winning some of those races and conversely, if the Republicans take all 3, I see no way for the Democrats to retain control.

The House vote is much more complex, given the myriad of districts involved. But, I think the GOP still has a far stronger shot at retaking the House on the basis of simple math -- they get to compete for 100% of the seats versus 36% for the Senate. The results of the House races in 2010 will actually not be long-lasting...all the seats will be redistricted in 2012 (except for the at-large seats in the small states) and this actually plays to the GOP's favor as they stand to control the vast majority of the Governor's Mansions when those changes are made.

So, let's assess where we stand.

First, the Senate:
As always, I'll start with the rating changes:

Colorado -- moves back from Toss-Up to Lean GOP Pick-Up as Buck has a 3 point lead in a new Survey USA poll, confirming an earlier Rasmussen poll that showed him leading. This will undoubtedly be a close race in November.

Pennsylvania -- moves back from Toss-Up to Lean GOP Pick-Up as the initial bump from the Democratic primary seems to have faded and Toomey has led in the last 3 polls, most recently a Rasmussen poll that had him at +6.

Wisconsin -- moves down from Likely DEM Hold to Lean DEM Hold with Russ Feingold potentially in real trouble in spite of Tommy Thompson not running, leading by only +1 and +2 in 2 new polls.

Arkansas -- moves from Likely GOP Pick-Up to Safe GOP Pick-Up as Blanche Lincoln trails horribly in new polling. Boozman is +29 points in the latest Rasmussen poll, which is the second straight poll with a 20+ point gap.

Hawaii -- moves from Likely DEM Hold to Safe DEM Hold as no credible GOP challenger has emerged in the state and Daniel Inoyue leads by 48 points in a Survey USA poll.

Illinois -- moves back from Lean GOP Pick-Up to Toss-Up as a new Rasmussen poll shows Democrat Giannoulis up by 1 in what will be a very closely watched race for President Obama's old Senate seat.

Kansas -- moves from Likely GOP HOld to Safe GOP Hold as Republicans lead by 30+ points in all 6 plausible match-ups for retiring Sen. Sam Brownback's seat.

West Virginia -- initiated as a Likely DEM Hold as it appears there will be a special election in November to backfill the late Robert Byrd and incumbent Gov. Manchin (D) leads by 14+ points in plausible match-ups.

Other polling in races that confirm earlier ratings:
Nevada -- a new Ramussen poll has Sharron Angle at +7 over majority leader Reid. Remains a Lean GOP Pick-Up.

California -- Barbara Boxer is +3 and +4 in 2 new polls. Remains a Lean DEM Hold.

Washington -- embattled Patty Murray is up +7 and even in 2 new polls. Remains a Lean DEM Hold.

Oregon -- a new Rasmussen poll has incumbent Ron Wyden at +10. Remains a Likely DEM Hold.

Missouri -- Roy Blunt is at +5 in a new Rasmussen poll. Remains a Lean GOP Pick-Up.

Kentucky -- Rand Paul is at +7 and even in 2 new polls. Remains a Lean GOP Hold.

Florida -- Crist is at +11 and -2 (to Rubio) in 2 new polls. Remains a Lean Independent Pick-Up, but will obviously continue to be closely watched.

Arizona -- McCain leads by 11 and 23 in 2 new polls. Remains a Likely GOP Hold.

North Carolina -- Burr leads by 10 and 15 in 2 new polls. Remains a Likely GOP Hold.

This leaves us with the following races:
Projected DEM Holds (11)
Safe Holds (4)
Hawaii, Maryland, New York (Schumer), Vermont

Likely Holds (4)
Oregon, Connecticut, New York (Gillebrand), West Virginia

Lean Holds (3)
California, Washington, Wisconsin

Potential DEM Pick-Ups (1)
Toss-Up - GOP Controlled (1)
Ohio

Potential GOP Pick-Ups (8)
Toss-Up - DEM Controlled (1)
Illinois

Lean GOP Pick-Up (3)
Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania

Likely GOP Pick-Up (2)
Delaware, Indiana

Safe GOP Pick-Up (2)
Arkansas, North Dakota

Projected GOP Holds (16)
Safe Holds (9)
Kansas, Louisiana, Iowa, South Dakota, Alabama, Idaho, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Utah

Likely Holds (5)
New Hampshire, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Alaska

Lean Holds (2)
Missouri, Kentucky

Potential Independent Pick-Ups (1)
Lean IND Pick-Up (1)
Florida

Current Senate: 56 Democrats, 41 Republicans, 2 Independents, 1 Vacant (Caucus: 58 Democrats, 41 Republicans)
Projected Senate: 49-52 Democrats, 45-48 Republicans, 3 Independents (Caucus: 51-54 Democrats, 46-49 Republicans)

As you can see, the GOP would need to take all the Toss-Ups and 2 out of 3 in the Lean DEM Hold category to retake the Senate. As I said, it all comes down to California, Washington and Wisconsin.

In the House,
The current generic polling average of averages is at +1.6%. Given this, my projection is:

Current House: 256 Democrats, 178 Republicans, 1 Vacancy
Projected House: 222 Democrats, 213 Republicans


Realclearpolitics Projection (Splitting the Toss-Ups): 218 Democrats, 217 Republicans
Cook Political Report (Splitting the Toss-Ups): 239 Democrats, 196 Republicans
ElectionProjection: 230 Democrats, 205 Republicans

So, at this stage of things, Democrats are projected to retain the House by all the major sites, although realclearpolitics has the race for the House far closer than any of the others.

So, despite the perceived Democratic fall-off discussed above, the numbers appear very much in line with what we've been seeing all summer. But don't kid yourself, these campaigns will really get going around Labor Day and we could see big movement in one direction or the other. But it's definitely shaping up to be an exciting fall.

The Latest on 2010

So, Sharron Angle has prevailed, Blanche Lincoln has survived (the primary at least) and the field continues to get set for 2010. Surprisingly, there have been only modest movements in the polls the past couple of weeks, despite all of the primary activity. Only two ratings changes to report.

Florida -- the last 3 polls show as follows: Crist and Rubio even, Crist +3 and Crist +4. Based on this, and earlier polls showing Crist with a small lead, I'm moving this race from Toss-Up to Lean Independent Pick-Up. It may not make a difference in terms of the make-up of the Senate, as Crist appears likely to caucus with the GOP, but it is a fascinating race to watch. Likely Democrat Meeks is still polling around 12 to 15%, far out of the running and is actually starting to lose traction in primary polling.

Kentucky -- moves from Likely GOP Hold to Lean GOP Hold. Rand Paul's controversial statements have dented his poll numbers, although he still leads. Three new polls have him up by 3, 6 and 8 points respectively, far off the double digit leads that the GOP was showing prior to the national media attention Paul received for his statements about civil rights laws.

Other races with new polling:
Illinois -- one new poll has Republican Mark Kirk up by 3 points, confirming the earlier rating of Lean GOP Pick-Up.

Nevada -- erratic polling in this one with freshly nominated GOPer Sharron Angle showing at -6, +3 and +11 in three polls taken since the nomination. I'm leaving it a Lean GOP Pick-Up for now, but will obviously continue to watch for a trend.

California -- one new poll shows incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer leading businesswoman Carly Fiorina by 5 points, confirming the earlier rating of Lean DEM Hold.

Washington -- incumbent Patty Murry is up by a mere 2 points in a new Rasmussen poll. The race stays a Lean DEM Hold.

Connecticut -- controversy over deceptive statements made by AG Blumenthal have apparently only modestly dented his lead. He shows leads of 20 and 23 points in two new polls. It stays a Likely DEM Hold for now because of the controversy, although the numbers would technically justify moving the race back to "Safe" territory.

Colorado -- GOP candidates lead by 1 to 6 points in a variety of match-ups in a new Rasmussen poll. I'm leaving the race a Toss-Up for now, as the race are tight and other polls have shown DEMs leading recently, but this race obviously deserves a lot of attention.

Pennsylvania -- 2 new polls have DEM Sestak up by 2 and GOP Toomey up by 7. This race has polled erratically from the get go. I'm leaving it a Toss-Up for now.

Ohio -- a new Rasmussen poll shows the race a tie, with two prior polls showing DEM Fisher up by 1 and 3 points respectively. This race will stay a Lean DEM Pick-Up for now, but is close to toss-up territory.

North Carolina -- incumbent GOPer Burr leads by 7 and 14 points in two new polls. This stays a Likely GOP Hold for now, although it is getting closer to shifting back to "lean" territory.

Iowa -- incumbent Republican Grassley is up by 23 in a new Public Policy Polling poll. I don't generally consider partisan-affiliated polls (PPP is a Democratic polling house), but there is no other recent polling and it confirms our existing rating of Safe GOP Hold.

Alabama -- incumbent Republican Shelby is up by 27 in a new Rasmussen poll. The race remains a Safe GOP Hold.

This gives us:
Projected Democratic Holds (10)
Safe Holds (3)
Maryland, New York (Schumer), Vermont

Likely Holds (5)
Hawaii, Oregon, Wisconsin, Connecticut, New York (Gillebrand)

Lean Holds (2)
California, Washington

Potential GOP Pick-Ups (8)
Safe Pick-Up (1)
North Dakota

Likely Pick-Ups (3)
Arkansas, Delaware, Indiana

Lean Pick-Up (2)
Illinois, Nevada

Toss-Up (2)
Colorado, Pennsylvania

Projected GOP Holds (16)
Safe Holds (8)
Louisiana, Iowa, South Dakota, Alabama, Idaho, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Utah

Likely Holds (6)
Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Alaska, Kansas, Hew Hampshire

Lean Holds (2)
Kentucky, Missouri

Potential DEM Pick-Ups (1)
Lean Pick-Up (1)
Ohio

Potential Independent Pick-Up (1)
Lean Pick-Up (1)
Florida

Current Senate: 57 Democrats, 41 Republicans, 2 Independents
Projected Senate: 49 to 51 Democrats, 46 to 48 Republicans, 3 Independents
Central Projection: 50 Democrats, 47 Republicans, 3 Independents
Likely Caucus Organization: 52 Democrats, 48 Republicans


In the House, our average of averages for generic polling has the GOP at +2.3%, although we have a wide variability in the numbers. Along with our other panel of expert websites, here is where things net out:

Current House: Democrats 252, Republicans 183
My Projection: Democrats 215, Republicans 220
Realclearpolitics (splitting the toss-ups): Democrats 219, Republicans 216
The Cook Political Report (splitting the toss-ups): Democrats 235, Republicans 200

Clearly, there will be a closer, more divided House when the House returns in January, regardless of which party controls the House. Expect a lot more swings to come.

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Latest 2010 Updates, The Giant Gulf Oil Spill, The GOP Clock Play

2010 -- A Big Year for the GOP
The Republican wave continues in polling for the 2010 race. Here are the latest updates for the Senate races. As always, I'll begin with race designation switches, followed by polls that reconfirm existing ratings:

Illinois -- moves from Toss-Up to Lean GOP Pick-Up as Republican Mark Kirk has been up by 4% and 8% in the latest two polls. This race pits a moderate against a liberal and the moderate appears to be winning.

Washington -- moves from Likely Democratic Hold to Lean Democratic Hold, as Patty Murray could be in real trouble this year. In the one poll available, she leads three potential GOP candidates by only 2 points and actually trails prospective Republican candidate Dino Rossi by 10 points. This race could shift further with additional polling.

Delaware -- moves from Lean GOP Pick-Up to Likely GOP Pick-Up as moderate at-large Rep. Mike Castle is up by 23 points in an April 30th Rasmussen poll. Castle is popular state-wide and appears to be headed for an easy victory.

Indiana -- moves from Lean GOP Pick-Up to Likely GOP Pick-Up as Coats leads by 16 and 21 points respectively in the latest two polls. Without Evan Bayh, Democrats appear sunk in this race.

Ohio -- some rare good news for the Dems as this race moves from Toss-Up to Lean DEM Pick-Up. Fisher appears headed to primary victory and leads by 3 points and 4 points in the latest two polls. This one has been very close for as long as we have been tracking it.

Florida -- moves from Likely GOP Hold to Lean GOP Hold, not because the Democrats have a shot at this seat, but because with Charlie Crist running as an independent, there is some chance that GOP-nominated Marco Rubio will not win. Rubio is still showing as up by 7% in a three-way race, so he is still favored to win, but it is quite plausible to see a reverse of what happened with Joe Lieberman in 2006 , when Republicans abandoned the Republican nominee to support the independent. This could happen with Democrats in Florida, as Meeks really has no shot. Crist may well still align with the GOP in the Senate even if he wins, but since he is running as an independent, that's what we'll consider him for rating purposes.

Other polls reconfirm existing ratings:
Arkansas -- Baker is up by 7 and 12 points in two new polls. Stays a Lean GOP PIck-Up.

North Dakota -- Hoeven is up by a staggering 45 points in a new poll. This may be the biggest rout for an open seat since Barack Obama won his Senate seat in 2004. Stays a Safe GOP Pick-Up.

New Hampshire -- Ayotte up 15 in the latest Rasmussen poll. Stays a Likely GOP Hold.

Arizona -- McCain up by 22 in the latest Behavioral Research Center poll. Stays a Likely GOP Hold.

North Carolina -- Burr up by 18 to 22 in two new polls. Stays a Likely GOP Hold.

Georgia -- Isakson up 16 points in a new poll. Stays a Likely GOP Hold.

All of this leaves us with:
Projected Democratic Holds (9)
Safe Holds (4)
Connecticut, Maryland, New York (Schumer), Vermont

Likely Holds (3)
Hawaii, Oregon, Wisconsin

Lean Holds (2)
California, Washington

Potential Democratic Pick-Ups (1)
Lean Pick-Up (1)
Ohio

Potential Republican Pick-Ups (9)
Toss-Up (1)
New York (Gillebrand)

Lean Pick-Ups (4)
Arkansas, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Illinois

Likely Pick-Ups (3)
Delaware, Indiana, Nevada

Safe Pick-Ups (1)
North Dakota

Projected Republican Holds (17)
Safe Holds (8)
Louisiana, Iowa, South Dakota, Alabama, Idaho, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Utah

Likely Holds (7)
New Hampshire, Kentucky, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Alaska, Kansas

Lean Holds (2)
Missouri, Florida

Net Projection: GOP +7 to 8 Seats
(10 seats needed to win control)

So, the GOP continues to project big gains. In order to take the Senate, they would need to hold Ohio, win Kristen Gillebrand's Senate seat and win either California or Washington. Still tough, but certainly not impossible, given the trend.

In the House,

Our generic polling average of averages has Republicans at +1.7%. This projects a GOP Pick-up of 35 seats, just shy of the 40 needed to retake the House. This result has been pretty consistent over the past couple of months.

Look at the race by race analysis, the Cook Political Report, shows 6 likely GOP pick-ups and 28 races marked as toss-ups, with 26 of those being Democratic seats, leading to a range of GOP Pick-Up from 4 to 32 seats. As I've said before, Cook tends to be pretty conservative (numerically, not politically) with his projections, so if the race is trending GOP, he will tend to lag most observers in projecting the size of the gain.

Realclearpolitics has the GOP projected to pick up a net 17 seats, with an additional 35 races rated as toss-ups, 34 of them being Democrats. This implies a GOP pick-up of 16 to 51 seats. This is far more in line with what I would expected, given the generic polling.

The GOP will have a big year in November, I think that much is assured at this point. Will they retake either or both houses of Congress? The next 6 months will tell us.

A Big, Nasty Oil Spill
We all know by now that the massive oil spill coming from a BP offshore oil platform is now approaching the gulf coast (as if the gulf coast needed another environmental disaster). This will have a devastating effect for years to coming on the environment, the fishing industry, tourism and public health. It is a terrible shame. And, apparently, something that happened because equipment designed to prevent these kinds of spills failed.

The political ramifications of this will be significant. This gives everyone pause about the role and regulation of offshore drilling. Clearly, additional measures need to be taken to ensure that this does not happen again. I'm not ready to say offshore drilling is a bad idea, simply that we need much better regulation of safety mechanisms. Oil rigs should be treated like nuclear plants, with intensive regulation. And the companies profiting from those rigs should pay for the cost of that regulation and oversight. And BP damn sure needs to pay not only for the clean-up, but for the damage to local economies that this spill will do.

No Shot Clock in Sight
In the era prior to the shot clock in college basketball, there was a play called the four corners that was designed to run minutes off the clock with every play. If I'm a Republican, I have a very simple strategy for the rest of this congress: run out the clock. I don't yet know if the GOP will have control of the House or Senate next year, but I do know that they'll have more seats than they do now.

So what does running the clock out look like?
(1) Move financial reform, but go slow
The House and Senate could easily be tied up for a month or two debating a financial reform bill. As I've said, I firmly believe that the final bill will pass with bi-partisan support. But the GOP has the tools to take their sweet time doing it.

(2) Run clock on a Supreme Court Nominee
President Obama will likely name his pick for the court in late May. Republicans could easily kill at least a month debating even a non-controversial candidate.

(3) Get tied up in the budgeting process
The House and Senate have to pass a full series of appropriations bills this year. Take it slow

In short, I think this strategy will be employed and utterly precludes a bill on immigration or climate change this year. That means the President will have a much tougher road with a more Republican congress next year. Perhaps he will be forced to live up to his promise of bi-partisanship.

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The Latest News on 2010

Tommy Thompson is out in Wisconsin, likely giving a big edge back to the DEMs to retain that seat. Other than that, not a lot of other good news for the DEMs. Here are the latest updates.

Rating Changes
Wisconsin - with Thompson out of the race, there is no GOP candidate that is polling close to incumbent Russ Feingold. This races moves from a Toss-Up to a Likely Democratic Hold.

Kentucky - Grayson is up 20 points in the latest poll. This one looks out of reach for the DEMs for now, in spite of the taint of Jim Bunning on the seat. Moves from Lean GOP Hold to Likely GOP Hold.

New Hampshire - a close call here, but with Ayotte up by 7, 8 and 15 in the latest three polls, with the 15 point spread being the most recent, it feels decisive enough to move from Lean GOP Hold to Likely GOP Hold.

Arizona - I had been expecting to move this one right for some time, but McCain had been polling in a very lackluster fashion through the winter. The latest poll shows him up by 19 points on Glassman. Moves from Lean GOP Hold to Likely GOP Hold.

Ohio - back in play - Fisher leads by 4% in 2 of the last 3 polls, Brunner by 5% in the other. The race switches from Lean GOP Hold to Toss-Up.

New Polls, No Ratings Change
Arkansas - this may move right soon, but not quite yet. The latest Rasmussen Poll shows Blanche Lincoln down by as much as 15 points against potential GOP challengers, but other polls show the race in the mid-to-high single digits. It stays a Lean GOP Pick-Up...for now.

Colorado - Bennett is trailing by 4 to 5 points against potential GOP challengers in 3 new polls. Still a Lean GOP Pick-Up.

Pennsylvania - Toomey is up 5 to 8 points in a new batch of polls. Stays a Lean GOP Pick-Up.

Nevada - another one that has been consistently straddling the lean/likely edge. Harry Reid is down by 7 to 15 points in the latest set of polling. I'll leave it a Likely GOP Pick-Up for now, but it could go left if there are some more single digit polls.

Washington - Patty Murray leads by only 2 to 8 points against GOP comers in a Rasmussen poll. If one additional poll confirms these numbers, I will move the rating right, but for now it stays a Likely DEM Hold.

Overall Senate Ratings
Projected Democratic Holds (9)
Safe Holds (4)
Connecticut, Maryland, New York (Schumer), Vermont

Likely Holds (4)
Washington, Hawaii, Oregon, Wisconsin

Lean Hold (1)
California

Potential Democratic Pick-Ups (1)

Toss-Ups (1)
Ohio

Potential GOP Pick-Ups (9)
Safe GOP Pick-UP (1)
North Dakota

Likely GOP Pick-Up (1)
Nevada

Lean GOP Pick-Up (5)
Arkansas, Delaware, Indiana, Colorado, Pennsylvania

Toss-Ups - DEM Controlled (2)
Illinois, New York (Gillebrand)

Projected GOP Holds (17)
Safe Holds (8)
Louisiana, Iowa, South Dakota, Alabama, Idaho, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Utah

Likely Holds (8)
New Hampshire, Kentucky, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Alaska, Kansas, Florida

Lean Holds (1)
Missouri

Net Projection: GOP Pick-Up of 6 to 9 Seats
(10 seats needed for control of the Senate)

In The House...
Our average of averages shows generic polling for the GOP is holding steady at +3.9%. This would project:

GOP Pick-Up of 44 Seats


So by my count, the GOP would narrowly take the House but narrowly fail to take the Senate if the election were held today.

While there is week-to-week variation, it is undoubtedly looking bad for the Democrats in November. They are hoping on the economic recovery to boost their prospects. The economy HAS improved greatly, as we have documented extensively in this space. But it doesn't matter until employment improves and people THINK the economy is better for THEM. Just ask George Herbert-Walker Bush how much an early-stage recovery helps the incumbent party's prospects.

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2010 Elections -- Where We Stand

It's been almost a month since I provided an update as this space was heavily focused on health care reform legislation as it weaved its way to an endgame in congress. So, let's assess where things stand.

The U.S. Senate
There have been tons of polls in the past month, but the races have actually been relatively stable. We have 3 ratings changes, so I'll discuss those first, then look at the other races with available polls:

Pennsylvania -- moves back from Toss-Up to Lean GOP Pick-Up. This one has been back and forth between these two ratings categories this year, but Pat Toomey has led in the last 3 polls, with the last two showing 5 and 6 point margins respectively. He appears to be modestly ahead.

Nevada -- moves back from Lean GOP Pick-Up to Likely GOP Pick-Up. Reid has trailed by double digits in the past two polls - this one has flipped back and forth between these two categories as the lead has stabilized at around 10 points (the last two polls show Reid down 11), which is my cut-off for the category.

Wisconsin -- moves from Lean Democratic Hold to Toss-Up. This change has more to do with the news than the polling. The polling narrative hasn't changed -- Feingold trails Tommy Thompson by a small amount if Thompson runs and destroys all other GOP comers. This move reflects the increasing likelihood that Thompson will run, bolstered by reports from Thompson's inner circle that he is leaning towards running.

Other races that do not have a rating change, but have new polls:
Arkansas -- Blanche Lincoln is still down 7 to 8% against GOP challengers, according to a Rasmussen poll last week. Still a Lean GOP Pick-Up.

Indiana -- Many different potential match-ups, but the GOP is lead by 7 to 18 points depending on the candidates and the poll. This stays a Lean GOP Pick-Up, but could tilt further right later on, depending on the match-up.

California -- Barbara Boxer leads likely GOPer Carly Fiorna by 1%, 1% and 6% in the latest three polls. This is a close race, but remains a Lean DEM Hold.

Connecticut -- Blumenthal still leads by a super comfortable 26 to 33 points against all GOP candidates in the latest polls. Still a Safe DEM Hold.

New York (Gillebrand) -- same narrative -- Gillebrand continues to narrowly trail George Pataki and lead big against other potential GOP candidates. If Pataki announces, this goes to a Lean GOP Pick-Up, if he does not it becomes a Likely or Safe Democratic Hold. For now, we leave it a Toss-Up.

New Hampshire -- Ayotte is up 10 points in the latest Rasmussen poll, right at our cut-off. The prior two polls showed her lead in the high single digits. This stays a Lean GOP Pick-Up for now, but it is getting closer to the "Likely" category.

Kentucky -- potential GOPers for Jim Bunning's open seat lead likely DEM candidates by 5 to 9 points in latest polling. Stays a Lean GOP Hold.

Ohio -- Portman still up by 5 to 6 points, a margin that has been very consistent this year. It stays a Lean GOP Hold.

Missouri -- Blunt still +6% in the latest available poll, which is similar to earlier polling. Still a Lean GOP Hold.

North Carolina -- Burr's lead to retain his seat continues to grow. The latest Rasmussen poll has him at +16%. This stays a Likely GOP Hold.

Florida -- the race has closed a little. Rubio still comfortably leads Crist for the nomination and leads by a narrowing 11 to 14% in the general. This is still a Likely GOP Hold, but seems like less of a lock than a few months ago.

Iowa -- Grassley leads all comers by 19 to 29%. Still a Safe GOP Hold.

So this leaves us with:
(1) Democratic Holds (8)
Safe (4)
Connecticut, Maryland, New York (Schumer), Vermont

Likely (3)
Washington, Hawaii, Oregon

Lean (1)
California

(2) Potential Democratic Pick-Ups (0)

(3) Potential GOP Pick-Ups (10)
Democratic Controlled Toss-Ups (3)
Wisconsin, New York (Gillebrand), Illinois

Lean Pick-Up (5)
Arkansas, Delaware, Indiana, Colorado, Pennsylvania

Likely Pick-Up (1)
Nevada

Safe Pick-Up (1)
North Dakota

(4) GOP Holds (18)
Lean (5)
New Hampshire, Kentucky, Ohio, Arizona, Missouri

Likely (5)
North Carolina, Georgia, Alaska, Kansas, Florida

Safe (8)
Louisiana, Iowa, South Dakota, Alabama, Idaho, Oklahoma, South Carolina Utah

Net Projection: GOP of 7 to 10 Seats


Best Case GOP (all leaners): GOP +11 Seats
Best Case DEM (all leaners): DEM +3 Seats

A few observations -- the GOP is approaching the upper-limit of what is possible in the mid-terms. The central case is actually pretty darn close to their best case -- with the exception of the 3 toss-up states and the California race that still Leans Democratic, they aren't many more competitive races to pick off. The other observation is that this is the first projection that shows the GOP with the potential to retake the Senate. They would need 10 seats to have a majority, or possibly 9 if they could peel off a switch in caucus loyalties from Independent Joe LIeberman or outcast moderate Democrat Ben Nelson. It is still not the most likely scenario, but the path is now plausible.

The House
In the House, our widest margin yet for the GOP in our average of averages, with the generic ballot question standing at GOP +5.6%. This would imply:

GOP Pick-Up of 50 Seats
Such a win would comfortably give the GOP control of the House, but as I've said before, this projection is a lot more prone to variation than the Senate projection and it has swung back and forth between more modest 25-30 seat losses and the heavier losses projecting now.

The Cook Political Report is tracking the 113 most competitive individual House races, 18 of which are Republican and 95 of which of Democratic. Of those, Cook presently projects 65 for the Democrats (almost all holds), 19 for the Republicans and 29 which are toss-ups.

This would imply a GOP pick-up range of +1 to +30 seats. However, if you throw in the "lean" races (of which there are 32 -- 29 currently held by Democrats and 3 currently held by Republicans), that range expands to GOP -1 to +60 seats. That is probably a more realistic range for what may happen, ranging from something close to a wash (unlikely, but possible) to a massive GOP landslide (also unlikely, but probably more possible than the wash.)

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Is a Train Wreck Coming for the DEMS? Site Update

The Hits Just Keep on Coming...
It would be hard to put on a set of lenses partisan enough to find any good news recently for the Democrats relative to their prospects in November. Races continue to slide to the right on our rating scale and a takeover of both houses of congress is more and more feasible every week for the GOP. Here are the latest updates.

Rating Changes
We have six rating changes, all good for the GOP, bad for the DEMs.

Indiana -- as I mentioned in my last post, Evan Bayh's departure tips this race red. It moves from Lean DEM Hold to Lean GOP Pick-Up. A lot depends on candidate choice for the DEMs here.

Washington -- moves down from Safe DEM Hold to Likely DEM Hold as Patty Murray is polling surprisingly poorly, barely reaching 50% in hypothetical match-ups.

Oregon -- seemingly untouchable Ron Wyden (D) is now not completely out of reach. He is up 14% in the latest polling. This race moves from Safe DEM Hold to Likely DEM Hold.

North Dakota -- put a fork in this race unless Hoeven gets caught in a nasty scandal. He leads by 35%+ against all the Democratic sacrificial lambs. This one moves from Likely GOP PIck-up to Safe GOP Pick-up.

Missouri - Roy Blunt leads by 7% in the latest polling, moving this race from Toss-Up to Lean GOP Hold.

Louisiana -- Vitter holds a very comfortable 24 point lead in this race. The race moves from Likely GOP Hold to Safe GOP Hold.

Reconfirmed Ratings
Pennsylvania -- Toomey up by 8 to 9% in the latest polling. This remains a Lean GOP Pick-up.

California -- Boxer leads Carly Fiorina by 4 points. Still a Lean DEM Hold.

Wisconsin -- Feingold still trails marginally if ex-Gov. Thompson decides to run, leads by a fair margin otherwise. Stays a Lean DEM Hold.

New Hampshire - Ayotte still up 7. Stays a Lean GOP Hold.

North Carolina -- a weird race, as incumbent Burr leads by 10-12 points against prospective challengers, but also sports a 35% approval rating and over 25% of voters are undecided. I leave it a Lean GOP Hold for now, but will obviously keep an eye on it.

State of the Senate
This leaves us with....
Safe DEM Hold (4)
Connecticut, Maryland, New York (Schumer), Vermont
But are there really any safe DEM seats this year?

Likely DEM Hold (3)
Washington, Hawaii, Oregon

Lean DEM Hold (2)
California, Wisconsin

Toss-Up - DEM Controlled (3)
Colorado, New York (GIllebrand), Illinois

Lean GOP Pick-Up (5)
Arkansas, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Indiana

Lean GOP Hold (6)
New Hampshire, Kentucky, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Missouri

Likely GOP Hold (4)
Georgia, Alaska, Florida, Kansas

Safe GOP Pick-Up (1)
North Dakota

Safe GOP Hold (8)
Louisiana, Iowa, South Dakota, Alabama, Idaho, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Utah

Projection: GOP Pick-Up of 6 to 9 Seats
Best Case GOP (all leaners): GOP +11 Seats
Best Case DEM (all leaners): DEM +5 Seats

It certainly seems, given the trend, that the GOP best case is more likely than the DEM best case, but you never know what might shift opinion by 5 points. The GOP has a clear path to a 50/50 split in the Senate and a couple of different ways to get to 51/49. And if it was a 50/50 split, who else thinks it is likely that Joe Lieberman would decide to switch allegiances?

The House
Our average of averages on the generic ballot question puts the GOP at +1.8%.

This projects: GOP +35 Seats
Interestingly, in some rare good news for the DEMs, this is the first time in several weeks that my projection methodology does NOT predict a GOP takeover of the House. But it is still darn close to the even line.

Site Update
I hadn't given you an update of site traffic lately, so here are the latest numbers:
October 2009 - 191 visitors
November 2009 - 353 visitors
December 2009 - 127 visitors
All of 2009 - 2,606 visitors
(note: this excludes the first 25 days of January, as site visitor tracking was only set up as of January 26th)

January 2010 - 253 visitors

You will note that site traffic typically peaks in months where an election occurs. November is the highest of the past 4 months with the New Jersey and Virginia Governor races and the New York House special election happening within that month. In fact, we had 131 visitors on election day alone. In January, the Massachusetts Senate election drove an increase in traffic, although we saw less of a spike as I was not live-blogging for that race. I regret not having tracking up in November 2008 as it would be interesting to see what the traffic was like during a Presidential election.

Thanks for your supporting...I hope this site is informative and thought provoking. As always, I welcome your comments.

Latest 2010 Rundown

We are 269 days from general election night in the 2010 mid-terms. Here is the latest run-down.

Senate
Since my last full update, I'd already documented 3 individual race changes: Indiana and Wisconsin moving from Likely DEM Hold to Lean DEM Hold with Evan Bayh in a surprisingly close polling race against potential GOP challengers and Feingold actually slightly trailing potential challenger Tommy Thompson and Delaware moving from Toss-up to Lean GOP Pick-up with Beau Biden not running on the Democratic side, leaving the party no strong rival for popular At Large Rep. Mike Castle (R).

We have 2 new updates to add to that list, 1 favorable to the GOP and 1 favorable to the DEMs.

Illinois moves from Lean DEM Hold to Toss-up following Mark Kirk's win in the GOP primary and a subsequent Rasmussen poll showing him leading the race by 6%. One close poll is not enough to swing this race to the GOP, but this one is clearly up for grabs.

Nevada moves from Likely GOP Pick-up to Lean GOP Pick-up - Harry Reid has experienced a quiet, partial resurgence and is trailing the two potential GOP challengers by a range of 6 to 8% in recent polling.

We have also seen a number of polls confirming our current race ratings in states including Colorado, Arkansas, North Dakota, New Hampshire and Kentucky.

This leaves us with the following state of the race:
Safe Democratic Hold - 6
Connecticut, Maryland, New York (Schumer), Oregon, Vermont, Washington

Likely Democratic Hold - 1
Hawaii

Lean Democratic Hold - 3
California, Indiana, Wisconsin

Toss-up - Dem Controlled - 3
Colorado, New York (Gillebrand), Illinois

Toss-up - GOP Controlled - 1
Missouri

Lean GOP Pick-Up - 4
Arkansas, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Delaware

Lean GOP Hold - 5
New Hampshire, Kentucky, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona

Likely GOP Pick-Up - 1
North Dakota

Likely GOP Hold - 5
Georgia, Alaska, Kansas, Louisiana, Florida

Safe GOP Hold - 7
Iowa, South Dakota, Alabama, Idaho, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Utah

Net Projection: GOP Pick-up of 4 tp 8 Seats (Central Projection +6)
Best Case GOP (all leaners): GOP +11 Seats
Best Case DEM (all leaners): DEM +5 Seats

For the first time in this election cycle, I can actually envision a scenario where the GOP could retake control of the Senate. It's still a very long shot -- it would require them winning all the toss-ups and picking off at least 1 of the 3 Lean DEM holds - Indiana, California or Wisconsin. But it is within the realm of possibility.

Of course, with the momentum behind the GOP, everyone is ignoring the other possibility -- that the race could break back to the left before November. The GOP stands to make big inroads in the Senate today, but there are many, many competitive races and as you can see from our "Best Case" scenarios, the difference between the GOP having a 52 to 46 majority in the Senate and them being relegated to a 62 to 36 minority is just a few percentage points nationally.

If the Democrats did not have an inherently favorable map (they would argue with this, but I'll explain), this might be a far worse situation for them. The way the election cycles have worked however, with their big gains coming in 2006 and 2008 and the 2010 race essentially a replay of the races from 2004, which was a more favorable year to the GOP, the GOP has more turf to defend and less targets to go after than they will in the next two Senate cycles.

Of course, if Democrats can lose Massachusetts, be trailing in Delaware, be even in New York and only slightly leading in California, no map can solve that problem. They are going to have to rediscover at least a little mojo or we could see a real shift on election night.

House
Our latest average of averages in the generic ballot question shows the GOP at +3.9%. Based on my statistical modeling this implies:

GOP Pick-up of 44 Seats


So at a high-level, I continue to project the GOP to narrowly retake the House in November, although the issue is certainly far from decided.

Since it is very difficult with 435 House races happening simultaneously, I have never attempted to do a race-by-race rundown, but it is worth looking at the reports of those who do. The Cook Political Report is one of the best sties at tracking race-by-race dynamics in House races. Cook currently lists 113 Hosue races as competitive, 24 controlled by GOP members and 89 currently controlled by Democrats. Of those 113 races, he has them rated as follows:
Likely DEM - 37
Lean DEM - 27
Toss-Up - 22
Lean GOP - 10
Likely GOP - 17

So if those ratings were to hold, it would imply a GOP Pick-up of 3 to 25 seats in November.

Of course, the challenge in this is that it is extremely hard to get recent, accurate polling in ANY House race, let alone 113. The "Lean" races could easily shift in either direction and even the Likely races could actually be a lot closer. Cook does a great job trying to document everything, but to a large extent, there is a heavy lag in these numbers. Cook is also well known to be very conservative in his calls - not ideologically mind you, but rather slow to shift races away from the incumbent party -- for instance, he still had the Brown/Coakley race listed as a "Toss-Up" going into election night, when we were solidly projecting a Brown win.

The high end of Cook's range is a feasible scenario -- I could certainly see the GOP "only" picking up 25 seats if the elections were held today. The low end, seems unfathomable in the current environment.

At any rate, the GOP stands to gain as things stand now, the debate is simply over how much.

Double-Witching 2012
Every 4 years, we elect a President in this country. Every 10 years we take a census, which reapportions House seats to the states, thereby leading to all the legislative districts being redrawn, as well as shifting the electoral vote count between the states (since electoral votes are determined by number of Representatives plus Senators.) Therefore every 20 years we have the "double-witching" effect of a Presidential race coupled with the newly redrawn map form the census.

The last time this happened was 1992 and it will happen again in 2012. These races can lead to a high-degree of change as you have generally high voter turnout for a Presidential election coupled with new faces in Congress due to the combination of existing districts and the creation of new districts.

2012 is still a long way away, but it's just interesting to note that although 2010 is shaping up to be a very significant election in terms of political change, 2012 has all the elements to change the game even more.

Next Up -- Assessing the newest unemployment report and what it means, as well as our regular update on Presidential approval