Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Finally, a Real Debate

Obama's Lead Unchanged, Obviously All Polls Pre-Debate
Electoral Vote Projection: Obama 349 to Mccain 189
Popular Vote Projection: Obama 52.2% to Mccain 45.8%
Days Until Election: 20

Static Map
No real changes on our map today. Obama extends his lead slightly in Missouri and Colorado as both move down one category in our battlegrounds (Missouri from Key to Serious, Colorado from Substantial to Fringe.)

Feisty Debate
I just finished watching the final debate. I thought John Mccain had by far his strongest performance of the three. It is pretty much established fact at this point that Mccain lost the first two debates and that Sarah Palin lost the debate to Joe Biden.
Mccain was sharper, more to the point, avoided pitfalls for the most part. He teetered on the edge of being smarmy at times, but I think he probably did everything that he could do to make his case.
...and I'm not sure it was enough.

He may run somewhere between even and slightly ahead in the post-debate polling. He may get a modest bounce in the polls. I don't think it will change the game.

But....if he gets it closer...say 3 or 4 points going into the final two weeks, then he has a live shot.
But, he will have to overcome:

Obama's Structural Advantage
Obama has an unbelievable amount of money that McCain doesn't have to spend on ads in battleground states, mobilization efforts and his prime time ad buy. These are critical advantages in the closing part of a campaign.
It's the fourth quarter now, Obama is ahead and he has all his time outs and challenges (football analogy.)
Mccain will need some fumbles, interceptions or hail marys to win it.

No comments: