Thursday, October 30, 2008
McComeback Stalls for a Day, Dead Cat Bounce or Temporary Setback?
PROJECTED ELECTORAL VOTE: OBAMA/BIDEN 356, MCCAIN/PALIN 182
(Obama up 18, McCain down 18)
PROJECTED POPULAR VOTE: OBAMA/BIDEN 51.8%, MCCAIN/PALIN 46.2%
(Obama up 0.5%, McCain down 0.5%)
TIME UNTIL FIRST POLLS OPEN: 4 DAYS, 3 HOURS, 45 MINUTES
McCain's comeback bid took a set back today as a he lost ground in both our popular and electoral projection after 3 straight days of gains. He would now need to pick up over 16 electoral votes per day and over 1.1% in the popular vote per day to be projected even by November 4th.
Almost all of this polling was before the "Obama informercial" last night. We'll start to see tomorrow if it had an impact.
North Carolina -- flips back to Obama -- Obama's lead is small, but he is consistently ahead in all the polls and early voting demographics clearly favor him
North Dakota -- flips to Obama -- his first time leading here in our projections -- some newer polling data would be helpful in determining how real this is
Indiana, North Dakota and Missouri remain key battlegrounds
North Carolina is downgraded from key to serious as Obama opens a 3 point lead
Florida and Montana remain serious battlegrounds
Arizona is upgraded from fringe to substantial -- it is legitimately close here, although I expect McCain to prevail in the end
Georgia and Ohio remain as substantial battlegrounds
Nevada is downgraded from substantial to fringe -- Obama appears to be pulling away here
Colorado, Virginia and New Mexico remain as fringe battlegrounds
Note: Wisconsin didn't last long as a battleground. It drops off today after only a 1 day run.
THE STATE OF THE RACE
McCain is back to being only slightly improved from where he started the week. He needs to run the table in the battlegrounds. Obama has 259 electoral votes that are pretty darn safe (all the Kerry states plus Iowa.) McCain could lose one smaller state, say Colorado or New Mexico, but he would need to win all the rest. His map is George Bush's 2004 win minus Iowa.
The other possibility is that he finds a way to pull off Pennsylvania. Even that feat, against all polling data, would require him to hold on in other key states like Florida and Ohio to have a shot at the presidency.
It's looking bleak for him again, but it still isn't impossible.
THE BETTING MONEY
After bottoming out over the weekend as an 8.3:1 underdog, the tightening polling through yesterday has pulled McCain up to a 5.9:1 underdog. So, like the national and state polls, he has closed some, but is still well behind.
We'll keep an eye on this and all the other indicators over the next 4 days, leading up to our final projection Monday evening
BATTLEGROUND EARLY VOTING QUICK UPDATE
(votes cast, % of 2004 early votes)
Colorado -- 1.1M, 109%
Florida -- 2.9M, 104%
Georgia -- 1.6M, 235%
Indiana -- 0.4M, 157%
Iowa -- 0.4M, 85%
Nevada -- 0.4M, 100%
North Carolina -- 1.8M, 169%
Ohio -- incomplete data -- at least 0.5M, 78%
Normal to slightly high turnout in 4 battleground states. MASSIVE turnout in 3. North Carolina and Georgia early vote demographics highly favorable to Obama (Indiana doesn't publish demographics, other states demographics don't appear to favor either.)
McCain all day in Ohio. All day tomorrow too.
Obama Florida, Virginia and Missouri. Iowa tomorrow.
Palin Missouri and Pennsylvania
Biden Missouri and Pennsylvania
Can McCain restart his comeback? Will Obama pull away? Have early votes already locked in the outcome?