Monday, October 6, 2008
John Mccain, How Low Can He Go?
OBAMA EXTENDS HIS LEAD TO 338-189 (11 TIED), VIRGINIA BACK IN HIS COLUMN, MISSOURI NOW A TIE
DAYS UNTIL THE ELECTION: 29
Note: Due to a typo on my part, this post originally showed Obama with a 333-189-11 lead vs. the correct count of 338-189-11
It may now be time for the Mccain campaign to go in full fledged panic (judging by their new tactics, I think they may be ahead of me.) Almost nothing for the GOP to get excited about in the past two weeks as Palin's performance apparently has failed to deliver any kind of bump (as I thought it might.)
The latest changes are as follows: STATE CHANGES Virginia -- swings back to Obama Missouri -- moves from Mccain to tied
KEY BATTLEGROUNDS Virginia -- remains a key battleground after switching to Obama
Missouri -- becomes a key battleground (from substantial) after switching from Mccain to tied North Carolina -- no change
SERIOUS BATTLEGROUNDS Florida -- no change
Colorado -- promoted from somewhat to Substantial battleground, a rare improvement for Mccain
Ohio -- no change
New Hampshire -- no change
Nevada -- no change
Indiana -- moves back up from potential to fringe battleground
POTENTIAL BATTLEGROUNDS As I mentioned before, all of the other categories are statistically arrived at, this one is subjective. I admit, I am struggling with what to include here, as Obama leads by so much in states that I previously considered potential battlegrounds (he is up by 9 to 11 points in Pennsylvania, for instance.) I thought about simply including the 3 closest states in the polling that are not already battlegrounds. However, one of those is Michigan, and Mccain has clearly conceded there. Therefore, I will include only 2:
New Mexico (added back)
Note: I have dropped Pennsylvania for the reasons above.
Mccain/Palin and the Art of the Low Blow
In my last blog, I said it would quickly get nasty and it has. Sarah Palin is playing pit bull accusing Obama of "paling around with terrorists" and raising the specter of Jeremiah Wright. Mccain meanwhile is saying that Obama has "never done anything in government". Clearly the GOP ticket believes they need to seriously change the momentum of the race quickly.
They are underfunded vs. Obama and have a much tougher map to defend.
But, as I continue to say, the race is a football game with four quarters:
First quarter -- from clinching of the nomination to convention
This one went to Mccain, who closed the gap to nothing by the time the conventions started
Second quarter -- the conventions
This one went slightly to Mccain, who held a modest lead coming out thanks to the Palin pick and her speech.
Third quarter -- from the conventions through the debates
This one has gone to Obama and big so far, but there are still two debates left
Fourth quarter -- from the debates to the election
This page is still blank -- Mccain is trying to shape it with doubts about Obama 's character, patriotism and experience
I must say though, Mccain is looking like a bigger and bigger underdog as the days tick away.
GOP -- Mccain is in New Mexico today (he clearly believes this is still a potential battleground), Palin is in Florida (clearly a battleground.) Palin will be in the Carolinas while Mccain debates.
DEM -- Obama was in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia over the weekend. He will be in Florida and Indiana later in the week.
Where is Joe Biden, anyway? Official word is a family medical emergency, but the circumstances seem very odd.