Saturday, January 21, 2012

All Signs Point Towards a Gingrich Win and a Continuing Race

It's amazing...a week ago Mitt Romney led comfortably in South Carolina.  Tonight, with just a few minutes to go before the polls close, it appears not only will Newt Gingrich be the victor, but may win be a decisive, double digit margin.  His late rise in the polls is nothing short of breath-taking, given how much coverage and how many debates have taken place and how little was left to be learned about the candidate.

But South Carolina conservatives just needed a reason and a clear candidate that was the alternative to Mitt.  Gingrich stormed through the two debates with fire and red meat and Mitt stumbled and bumbled around tax forms and health care.

A double digit Gingrich win makes it an effective two-man race.  Rick Santorum may quit if he finishes fourth or a distant third (both distinct possibilities.)  And Gingrich is much more capable of attacking in a one-on-one fight versus in a multi-front campaign with a divided "not Mitt".

But Gingrich's challenges with organization and money aren't going away, and while he may be able to mount a charge in Florida, when the campaign spreads out to multiple states at a time shortly thereafter, he is still a heavy underdog to Mitt.

Expect the news networks to call it at 7:01.

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