Tuesday, January 3, 2012

It's Going to Be Too Close to Call for a While

The lead is just swapping back and forth as counties favorable to each of the candidates come in.  With half of the vote in, it is a virtual tie between Santorum, who is the nominal leader and Romney, with both at 24%.  Ron Paul is currently in third, but with less than 2% separating him from first.

It will likely be very late tonight before a winner can be called.  In terms of delegates, the differences will not be meaningful.  In terms of psychology, they could be huge.  A Rick Santorum first place finish vaults him into the top tier going forward (probably not in New Hampshire, but certainly in Florida and South Carolina) whereas a third place finish makes him an interesting also-ran.  A Ron Paul win breathes life into his campaign to make a run for independents in New Hampshire.  A third place finish makes him just an interesting side show.

All there is left to do now is just sit back and watch the votes.

Have a great night...full recap tomorrow.

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