Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Questions Left to Answer

The questions left to answer are mostly about the overall accuracy of my projection.

45 states have been called in the Presidential race and our projection was right on all 45.

Of the remaining 5, I'm sure to be right about Alaska (no way Obama wins there), I am likely to be right in Colorado and Nevada and I am likely to be wrong in Florida (Obama appears poised to win there), with Virginia possibly going either way.  So I think I'm probably looking at an accuracy of around 48 to 49 states, similar to our a slight improvement on 2008.

The popular vote projection will take quite some time to project.  It is very hard with the partial counts in some states and low counts on the west coast to get an accurate read on where the popular vote will land.

In the Senate,
Nebraska goes GOP, giving them their first swing state win.

Tammy Baldwin wins in Wisconsin for the Dems.

Montana, Nevada, Arizona and North Dakota have not been called yet in the Senate.  In the other 10 competitive Senate races, our projections are perfect so far.

The House is way too early to assess.

As results roll in and finalize over the next few days, I will do a full report card and benchmark on my projections for this cycle.

But tonight, I feel pretty good about the analysis and calls that I have made over the course of this election cycle.  Tonight unfolded largely as I had projected and any misses that I am going to have are ones that I expressly projected ahead of time were too close to call with certainty.

Thanks for joining the ride for the greatest exercise in democracy in the greatest democracy in the world. 

Have a great night and I hope you will join me as the country moves into Barack Obama's second term.

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