Tuesday, November 6, 2012

The Unreleased Exit Polls

Matt Drudge is reporting that exit polls point to a Mitt Romney win in Florida and North Carolina, Barack Obama win in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada with too-close-to-call results in Ohio, Virginia, Colorado and Iowa.

These results would be consistent with my final projections.

Assuming Wisconsin also breaks for Obama (a not completely safe assumption) and the 4 listed as too-close-to-call where the only ones in play, Obama would have a base of 257 and would need to win either Virginia or Ohio or the other 2 in order to carry the election.  Romney would need the inverse (Virgina plus Ohio plus one of the two remaining.)

Again - be careful with the early exit poll results.

Intrade is essentially unchanged at 71%.

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