Pencils Down!

Final Projections:
Senate: 51 Democratic Caucus (49 Democrats, 2 Independents), 49 Republican Caucus (48 Republicans, 1 Independent)
House: 237 Republicans, 198 Democrats



Final numbers are in. GOP House numbers have improved at the very end with some strong generic polling to close out the season. No projection changes in the Senate...in the close races, I still predict the Democrats to hold on in Connecticut, California, West Virginia and Washington and Republican wins in Illinois, Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Kentucky and Missouri.

Bottom line: I project a strongly GOP House and a narrowly Democratic Senate. The GOP could still possibly win the Senate by taking my projected pick-ups and pulling off upsets in West Virginia and Washington.

Below is a comparison of the close races and House projections versus other major projection sites:


With the exception of Alaska, we are all projecting the same Senate results, but by varying margins, based on the different techniques for generating the averages. In the House, every other site is using a race-by-race analysis, whereas I am relying solely on generic polling, which I believe will produce at least an equally accurate and quite possibly a superior result. We shall see. Again, everyone is projecting the GOP to take the House, but by varying margins.

In the competitive Governor's races, I project:
Safe/Likely Dem: Arkansas, Maryland, New York
California: Brown (D) +7.2%
New Hampshire: Lynch (D) +7.0%
Minnesota: Dayton (D) +6.8%
Colorado: Hickenlooper (D) +5.5%
Hawaii: Abercrombie (D) +5.0%
Massachusetts: Patrick (D) +4.8%
Oregon: Kitzhaber (D) +2.7%
Vermont: Shumlin (D) +2.0%
Florida: SInk (D) +0.4%
Rhode Island: Chaffee (I) +7.0%
Connecticut: Foley (R) +1.8%
Ohio: Kasich (R) +3.6%
Illinois: Brady (R) +4.3%
Pennsylvania: Corbett (R) +7.5%
Georgia: Deal (R) +8.4%
Wisconsin: Walker (R) +8.8%
Safe/Likely GOP: Arizona, New Mexico, South Carolina, Texas, Arkansas, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, Alabama, Kansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Wyoming, Idaho, Nebraska, South Dakota, Utah

Total Projection (including incumbents not up): 30 Republicans, 20 Democrats

Things to Watch for Tomorrow
(1) Early Senate Bell Weather
West Virginia is in Eastern time and will be extremely instructive about the course of the rest of the night. If this one goes Republican, Democrats are at real risk of losing the House. If it goes Democratic, it's almost impossible for them to do so.

(2) Early House Bell Weathers
Watch for these key races on the East Coast to see how big the GOP majority is going to be:
Connecticut's 4th
New Jersey's 3rd (my home district)
New York's 24th
North Carolina's 8th and 11th
Delaware's At-Large

If the GOP runs the table in these races, it could be a very, very ugly night for the Dems...they could be reduced to 170 seats or less. If the DEMs run the sweep here, we might be looking at a closely divided House.

(3) THE Key Governor's Race
Florida is probably the closest and among the most important Governorships in the country. Sure, New York, Texas and California also vote, but those outcomes are fairly well known (GOP in Texas, Dems in New York and Cali), plus Florida being a swing state, aren't you interested in knowing who gets to appoint the next Katherine Harris?

(4) Alaska Senate Craziness
Polls close relatively late in Alaska, but let's face it, no one knows what is going to happen in this race. A once-in-a-lifetime write-in victor? An after hours Tea Party? A Democrat splitting the difference? This is one worth watching.

Note that if Murkowski shows as well as she is polling, the result may not be known for days. The write-ins will only be tallied if "write-in" has more votes than the leading named candidate. And you can only imagine the ballot battles that ensue if that happens. Alaska law requires only that the intent of the voter be clear on a write-in. So what does that mean a voter has to write in order for a vote to count for Murkowski? Your guess is as good as mine, but I bet a lot of lawyers will try to figure it out if "write-in" wins tomorrow.

Please Vote
I believe firmly in the statistical techniques that I use here and I'm proud of my results in the past. I try very hard to be accurate on this site. But at the end of the day, polls don't vote, people do. We all have the power to do something completely different than we've been telling pollsters tomorrow.

So, please, vote tomorrow, regardless of your political stripes. Make your voice heard.

Live Blogging Begins Tomorrow Night
I'll be on tomorrow sharing my observations after the polls close.
Thanks for hanging with me this election season and I look forward to some fun tomorrow.

If you like this site, tell all your friends to join us tomorrow. I plan to begin around 7 PM.

Latest House and Senate Updates, What You Need to Know About Governor's Races

Projection Totals
Senate: 51 Democratic Caucus (49 Dems, 2 Ind), 49 Republican Caucus (48 Reps, 1 Ind)
House: 231 Republicans, 204 Democrats




A lot of new polls since Thursday, but absolutely no rating changes in any of the Senate races. Of note...Washington seems to be getting even closer, which may be a very important race the way this is shaping up. Basically, to win control of the Senate, the GOP needs to hold all the seats that I have in their column ("leans" included) and take both West Virginia and Washington. In my approximation, this still makes Washington approximately "Seat #51".

In the House, we have tightened ever-so-slightly, but the GOP is still projected to win back the House by a wide majority. It's hard to imagine a scenario where they hold on to the House, although stranger things have happened.

The State Houses
I have not been keeping a statistical projection of all the Governor's races in the country as this site mostly focuses on national politics, but they bear a mention as the parties in power after this election will have significant control of the redistricting process after the 2010 census results are released at the end of the year. Every state (except for the ones with only 1 House seat) will be drawing new districts and control of the legislature and the Governor's mansion means the ability to gerrymander for your party.

Here is the landscape for Governor's races:
There are several states that do not have Governor's races this year. New Jersey and Virginia have "odd-year" governor's races, which the GOP won last year. Several other states have even-year elections that match the Presidential calendar. These are:
Washington, Montana, South Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Louisiana, North Carolina and West Virginia.

Arkansas has sort of an odd system where the Governor is on 2-year terms, so the race is up this year and in 2012.

All of the rest are up for 4 year terms this time.

The Democrats have 7 seats not up for re-election and 3 that are not particularly competitive.
The GOP have 6 seats not up and 14 that are not particularly competitive.

This leaves 20 basically locked in for the GOP and 10 for the DEMs.

Of the remaining seats, here is how they break down:
Dems Lead: California, Colorado, New Hampshire, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota
Polls Split/Very Close: Connecticut, Florida, Oregon, Vermont
GOP Leads: Illinois, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Wisconsin
Independent Leads: Rhode Island

Of the 4 very close races, here are my current statistical projections:
Connecticut: Malloy (D) +2.6%
Florida: Scott (R) +1.2%
Oregon: Dudley (R) +0.8%
Vermont: Shamlin (D) +3.2%

So at this point, I project:
US Governors: 31 Republicans, 18 Democrats, 1 Independent
It isn't quite as bad as it looks for the Democrats, since they will control some very big states with a lot of congressional seats, including New York, likely California and still possibly Florida (although they trail in my numbers narrowly there.) Still, this gives the GOP 30-some Presidential candidates in 2012 and a lot of clout in the states.

Tomorrow I will do my final projections and a full run down / watching guide to the mid-terms. I will be live-blogging on Tuesday after the polls start to close.

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