A Post-Election Scorecard, The Underperforming Tea Party, Pelosi Runs Again

In investing, it has been proven over and over again statistically that the vast majority of "active" mutual fund managers, those who trade frequently to try to beat the market underperform simple index funds which just buy the stocks that comprise big indices such as the S&P 500.

How is this relevant to politics and predicting elections? I feel a bit like one of those active managers.

Not that this site did badly in the past election. In the close Senate races, I had an average error of only 3.8% and an average bias of only 2.7%, both the second best of the 4 major election sites I benchmark against. And these are the best of the best...well established sites with a strong history of projecting elections.

It's just that I didn't "trounce the market"...and if you followed this site in 2008, you know that through a combination of a lot of luck and some skill, I trounced the market back then. Here is a scorecard comparison of the close Senate races and the total House count among the major sites.



You can see my averages got hurt by big misses in Colorado and Nevada and to a lesser extent, incorrect margins in the fringe close races in Missouri and Kentucky. You can also see that no specific method of poll aggregation prevailed over other methods as the one that was most accurate.

My numbers would be so much better if it weren't for those darn.....

Underperforming Tea Party Candidates
The Tea Party clearly cost the GOP 3 Senate seats in this past election cycle. The trouncing that Christine O'Donnell took in Delaware was predicted. The losses that Ken Buck and Sharon Angle took in Colorado and Nevada respectively were unexpected, at least by myself and other major prediction sites and show a consistent pattern.

The Tea Party had either 5 or 6 loyalists that won GOP nominations for the Senate this cycle, by my count. It is tough to get an exact count, since there is no clear definition of who is a "Tea Party Candidate", but certainly Christine O'Donnell, Joe Miller, Sharon Angle, Ken Buck and Rand Paul fit that bill. Marco Rubio is somewhere in between...he enjoyed strong support from Tea Party organizers against Charlie Crist, but was careful not to get too close to the movement.

If you don't count Rubio, who obviously did extremely well, then the experiment in Tea Party candidates was more or less a complete disaster for the GOP.

Christine O'Donnell, Sharon Angle and Ken Buck all lost. Joe Miller appears likely to lose in Alaska. And it is abundantly clear...mainstream candidates in each of these 4 races would have easily won on the GOP line.

Rand Paul did win in Kentucky, but a Republican Senatorial candidate winning by less than 12% in dark red Kentucky in a heavily Republican year is hardly an impressive showing.

Rand Paul wants a Senate Tea Party caucus. It will either be loaded with Republicans who voted for all of the Bush spending increases and TARP plans or it will be a very lonely place.

Let me repeat what I said from the outset: The Tea Party is a joke.

Pelosi Runs Again
Outgoing Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has announced that she will run for minority leader when the new House convenes. This is a break with tradition, whereby the leader of a party generally steps down when his or her party losses the majority. Pelosi appears poised to win, over the objections of conservative and moderate Democrats. There just aren't enough of them left to overcome the liberal base in the House...frankly the conservative Dems were the ones hit the hardest in this election cycle.

Pelosi has been an effective leader in getting things done...can you name one policy priority for the Democrats for which Pelosi didn't get a bill last congress? But she is also a polarizing figure in the country, one whose image raises a lot of money and energy for the GOP. I don't have a dog in the hunt, but if I were the Democrats, I might want a fresher face with a more moderate image.

Last Post of the Night

The Democrats claim the California and Hawaii Senate seats, as expected. This brings their total to 50 seats...enough to retain their majority.

There are six seats theoretically still in play: Pennsylvania, Illinois, Nevada, Washington, Colorado and Alaska. I expect the GOP to win in PA, IL, NV and CO, although all 4 are close and NV and CO in particular are still early enough in the voting that they could swing. I expect Patty Murray to prevail in WA, although, again, this is early. And AK is most likely a race between two people who would caucus with the GOP, although there is still an outside chance at a Democratic miracle there. All told, I still project all of my Senate predictions from last night will hold.

The size of the House majority will be determined overnight and in the weeks to come.

Congratulations to the GOP on their victory in the House and their gains in the Senate. Let's hope for more cooperation and compromise in Washington in the next 2 years, whether out of conviction on the party of the two parties or simply out of survival instinct.

Every election I note this, but it bears repeating every year. Democracy is an absolute miracle in this country. The peaceful execution of elections and transfer of power between the parties is a wonder to behold and something that we should never take for granted.

God Bless America.

Good night everyone and thanks for reading....full results rundown tomorrow and my usual score cards on my projections later in the week (after results are a little more finalized.)

More Easy Holds for the GOP

Louisiana, Iowa, Missouri and Arizona all go GOP. Did I mention Georgia earlier?

The Senate math is actually pretty simple. The Dems have 47 seats locked in at this point (45 named Democrats and the 2 Independents who caucus with them)...they need 3 more to hold the Senate. I'm projecting those 3 to be California, Washington and Oregon as well as Hawaii. For the GOP to get to 51, they need to run the rest of the table (Pennsylvania, Colorado, Illinois) AND take 2 of those 4. Not going to happen.

Virginia's 9th Is Meaningful

Morgan Griffith's win in Virginia's 9th District for the GOP is significant in that it is the first "pure toss-up" House race that has been called either way. I think this win probably puts a floor on the GOP number of at least 225-230 seats. Make no mistake about it, it will be a big GOP House majority, based on this result.

I feel good about my final projections in every Senate seat. My House number could well still be just about right, but this result makes me wonder if I called the GOP number too low.

I Continue to Be Unsurprised

North Carolina goes red in the Senate, as expected, as does Arkansas. Connecticut goes blue in the Senate, also expected.

The House races that were supposed to be neck and neck, are, in fact, neck and neck. The early bell weathers in Kentucky 6 and Indiana 2 are both within 1% of the vote with over 70% of the votes in in both races.

Everything is still breaking according to form.

Sandra Adams Strikes in Florida, GOP Majority Almost Certain in House

The GOP draws their first blood in Florida's 24th district with Sandra Adams picking up the seat for the GOP. This was a seat that was considered fairly likely to switch, but honestly, was also the sort of seat that the Dems would need to somehow pull out in order to retain control of the House. I think this race makes it virtually impossible for the Dems to stay in power there (I know it's early, but if they are losing this one, it's hard to imagine a scenario that gets them to 218.)

Carney Strikes First Blood in the House

John Carney (D) has won the at-large House seat in Delaware, marking the first pick-up for either party. The Dems really only had a shot at 4 GOP seats, this one, Louisiana's 2nd district, Illinois' 10th district and Hawaii's 1st district. This and Louisiana's 2nd were the ones that they were most likely to pick-up, so this is not a totally unexpected result, or one that rules out the GOP house wave that myself and others have been projecting.

Raw Exit Polling Data -- Deceptive and Misinforming

Why is CNN showing raw data from exit polls? Anyone who knows anything about the last decade of exit polling knows that there are huge problems in sample selection, both from self-selection of voters and from the behavior of poll takers at polling stations. Showing the raw numbers in close races adds nothing to the dialogue as those numbers are as likely to be completely wrong as they are to be right. For those looking to glean some meaning, the polls tend to skew more Democratic than the actual results, although polling firms have been attempting to adjust to compensate in the last couple of cycles, so who knows at this point.

At any rate, look at actual results, ignore the "raw exit polls".

Coons in Delaware, Rubio in Florida, Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire

5 more races break easily according to form.

Chris Coons (D) beats back Tea Party darling Christine O'Donnell. The GOP faithful will have to be in tears if they end the night with 50 Senate seats and the primary defeat of moderate Mike Castle winds up being the difference in their bid to take over the Senate.

Marco Rubio (R) is finally called in Florida at 8:00:01.

Kelly Ayotte (R) wins in New Hampshire in a race that ceased to be competitive in the closing weeks.

Barbara Mikulski (D) wins in Maryland, as was widely expected.

Richard Shelby (R) wins in Alabama, also widely expected

Still no upsets, so far.

North Carolina and Georgia Appear Headed to GOP, As Expected

No official projections from the networks on the North Carolina and Georgia Senate seats, but looking at the county-by-county comparisons to prior cycles, I'm confident they will both go to the GOP. Neither race was on my competitive list.

So far, we have no upsets versus final projections, but it is very early and none of the closest races have been decided yet.

Early returns from West Virginia are way too close to call.

Ohio a Done Deal for the GOP, Florida Sure to Follow

Rob Portman has held the Ohio Senate seat for the GOP...again, not a race that was considered by this site or others to be particularly competitive.

Marco Rubio has not yet been called the winner in the Florida Senate race yet, because networks will not project until 8 PM when the last precincts on the panhandle close, but he is a sure thing. Early precincts show a big Rubio victory. The Governor's race is far less clear.

And They're Off!

Polls are closed now in Indiana and Kentucky...they closed at 6 PM Eastern Time. Indiana was not expected to be competitive, with Dan Coats expected to cruise back into the Senate for the GOP. Kentucky was marginally competitive, with Republican Rand Paul strongly favored, but still within the "lean" range on my projections.

Vote totals at this point are too early to make any kind of early projection on what kind of night we are going to have.

Polls will close by state as follows (all times Eastern)
7:00 PM
Florida*, Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia

* Portions of the panhandle close at 8:00 PM Eastern Time

7:30 PM
Ohio, North Carolina, West Virginia

8:00 PM
Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Kansas, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas

8:30 PM
Arkansas

9:00 PM
Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, Wyoming

10:00 PM
Idaho, Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah

11:00 PM
California, Oregon, Washington

12:00 AM
Alaska, Hawaii

Updates and analysis throughout the night as results are announced.

Pencils Down!

Final Projections:
Senate: 51 Democratic Caucus (49 Democrats, 2 Independents), 49 Republican Caucus (48 Republicans, 1 Independent)
House: 237 Republicans, 198 Democrats



Final numbers are in. GOP House numbers have improved at the very end with some strong generic polling to close out the season. No projection changes in the Senate...in the close races, I still predict the Democrats to hold on in Connecticut, California, West Virginia and Washington and Republican wins in Illinois, Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Kentucky and Missouri.

Bottom line: I project a strongly GOP House and a narrowly Democratic Senate. The GOP could still possibly win the Senate by taking my projected pick-ups and pulling off upsets in West Virginia and Washington.

Below is a comparison of the close races and House projections versus other major projection sites:


With the exception of Alaska, we are all projecting the same Senate results, but by varying margins, based on the different techniques for generating the averages. In the House, every other site is using a race-by-race analysis, whereas I am relying solely on generic polling, which I believe will produce at least an equally accurate and quite possibly a superior result. We shall see. Again, everyone is projecting the GOP to take the House, but by varying margins.

In the competitive Governor's races, I project:
Safe/Likely Dem: Arkansas, Maryland, New York
California: Brown (D) +7.2%
New Hampshire: Lynch (D) +7.0%
Minnesota: Dayton (D) +6.8%
Colorado: Hickenlooper (D) +5.5%
Hawaii: Abercrombie (D) +5.0%
Massachusetts: Patrick (D) +4.8%
Oregon: Kitzhaber (D) +2.7%
Vermont: Shumlin (D) +2.0%
Florida: SInk (D) +0.4%
Rhode Island: Chaffee (I) +7.0%
Connecticut: Foley (R) +1.8%
Ohio: Kasich (R) +3.6%
Illinois: Brady (R) +4.3%
Pennsylvania: Corbett (R) +7.5%
Georgia: Deal (R) +8.4%
Wisconsin: Walker (R) +8.8%
Safe/Likely GOP: Arizona, New Mexico, South Carolina, Texas, Arkansas, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, Alabama, Kansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Wyoming, Idaho, Nebraska, South Dakota, Utah

Total Projection (including incumbents not up): 30 Republicans, 20 Democrats

Things to Watch for Tomorrow
(1) Early Senate Bell Weather
West Virginia is in Eastern time and will be extremely instructive about the course of the rest of the night. If this one goes Republican, Democrats are at real risk of losing the House. If it goes Democratic, it's almost impossible for them to do so.

(2) Early House Bell Weathers
Watch for these key races on the East Coast to see how big the GOP majority is going to be:
Connecticut's 4th
New Jersey's 3rd (my home district)
New York's 24th
North Carolina's 8th and 11th
Delaware's At-Large

If the GOP runs the table in these races, it could be a very, very ugly night for the Dems...they could be reduced to 170 seats or less. If the DEMs run the sweep here, we might be looking at a closely divided House.

(3) THE Key Governor's Race
Florida is probably the closest and among the most important Governorships in the country. Sure, New York, Texas and California also vote, but those outcomes are fairly well known (GOP in Texas, Dems in New York and Cali), plus Florida being a swing state, aren't you interested in knowing who gets to appoint the next Katherine Harris?

(4) Alaska Senate Craziness
Polls close relatively late in Alaska, but let's face it, no one knows what is going to happen in this race. A once-in-a-lifetime write-in victor? An after hours Tea Party? A Democrat splitting the difference? This is one worth watching.

Note that if Murkowski shows as well as she is polling, the result may not be known for days. The write-ins will only be tallied if "write-in" has more votes than the leading named candidate. And you can only imagine the ballot battles that ensue if that happens. Alaska law requires only that the intent of the voter be clear on a write-in. So what does that mean a voter has to write in order for a vote to count for Murkowski? Your guess is as good as mine, but I bet a lot of lawyers will try to figure it out if "write-in" wins tomorrow.

Please Vote
I believe firmly in the statistical techniques that I use here and I'm proud of my results in the past. I try very hard to be accurate on this site. But at the end of the day, polls don't vote, people do. We all have the power to do something completely different than we've been telling pollsters tomorrow.

So, please, vote tomorrow, regardless of your political stripes. Make your voice heard.

Live Blogging Begins Tomorrow Night
I'll be on tomorrow sharing my observations after the polls close.
Thanks for hanging with me this election season and I look forward to some fun tomorrow.

If you like this site, tell all your friends to join us tomorrow. I plan to begin around 7 PM.

Latest House and Senate Updates, What You Need to Know About Governor's Races

Projection Totals
Senate: 51 Democratic Caucus (49 Dems, 2 Ind), 49 Republican Caucus (48 Reps, 1 Ind)
House: 231 Republicans, 204 Democrats




A lot of new polls since Thursday, but absolutely no rating changes in any of the Senate races. Of note...Washington seems to be getting even closer, which may be a very important race the way this is shaping up. Basically, to win control of the Senate, the GOP needs to hold all the seats that I have in their column ("leans" included) and take both West Virginia and Washington. In my approximation, this still makes Washington approximately "Seat #51".

In the House, we have tightened ever-so-slightly, but the GOP is still projected to win back the House by a wide majority. It's hard to imagine a scenario where they hold on to the House, although stranger things have happened.

The State Houses
I have not been keeping a statistical projection of all the Governor's races in the country as this site mostly focuses on national politics, but they bear a mention as the parties in power after this election will have significant control of the redistricting process after the 2010 census results are released at the end of the year. Every state (except for the ones with only 1 House seat) will be drawing new districts and control of the legislature and the Governor's mansion means the ability to gerrymander for your party.

Here is the landscape for Governor's races:
There are several states that do not have Governor's races this year. New Jersey and Virginia have "odd-year" governor's races, which the GOP won last year. Several other states have even-year elections that match the Presidential calendar. These are:
Washington, Montana, South Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Louisiana, North Carolina and West Virginia.

Arkansas has sort of an odd system where the Governor is on 2-year terms, so the race is up this year and in 2012.

All of the rest are up for 4 year terms this time.

The Democrats have 7 seats not up for re-election and 3 that are not particularly competitive.
The GOP have 6 seats not up and 14 that are not particularly competitive.

This leaves 20 basically locked in for the GOP and 10 for the DEMs.

Of the remaining seats, here is how they break down:
Dems Lead: California, Colorado, New Hampshire, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota
Polls Split/Very Close: Connecticut, Florida, Oregon, Vermont
GOP Leads: Illinois, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Wisconsin
Independent Leads: Rhode Island

Of the 4 very close races, here are my current statistical projections:
Connecticut: Malloy (D) +2.6%
Florida: Scott (R) +1.2%
Oregon: Dudley (R) +0.8%
Vermont: Shamlin (D) +3.2%

So at this point, I project:
US Governors: 31 Republicans, 18 Democrats, 1 Independent
It isn't quite as bad as it looks for the Democrats, since they will control some very big states with a lot of congressional seats, including New York, likely California and still possibly Florida (although they trail in my numbers narrowly there.) Still, this gives the GOP 30-some Presidential candidates in 2012 and a lot of clout in the states.

Tomorrow I will do my final projections and a full run down / watching guide to the mid-terms. I will be live-blogging on Tuesday after the polls start to close.

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Are the Dems Rallying Late?, Some Perspective on November 3rd

Projection Totals
Senate: 51 Democratic Caucus (49 Dems, 2 Ind), 49 Republican Caucus (48 Reps, 1 Ind)
House: 233 Republicans, 202 Democrats




The full court push is officially on. President Obama did the Daily Show, President Clinton is out hard on the campaign trail and both sides are spending ad money at a rate that makes us all want to TiVo programs rather than watch them live. But are the numbers moving at all?

Maybe a little in the final days. Don't get me wrong, the GOP is going to make huge gains, no question about it. And a lot of the races are starting to cement and clarify. But where there is movement late, at least on the Senate side, it seems to be modestly pro-Democrat.

We are probably down to about 7 races where the outcome is truly in doubt. It's tough to close a 5 point gap in less than a week, barring a big surprise and it's rare that my projections are off by 5%.

So let's run those down:
Alaska -- I don't know what the heck is going to happen in this race. The newest poll, from the Hay Research Group, vaults incumbent Republican running as a write-in Lisa Murkowski into the lead, with Joe Miller plummeting all the way to third place. This leaves us with three completely viable outcomes: #1 That Murkowski does in fact win via write-in, #2 That Miller picks up the Murkowski voters who don't want to bother with the write-in or forget when they get to the polls or #3 That the Dems eke one out in a three-way race, in the same manner as they stole a New York Congressional special election last year. I view #3 as a real possibility for the first time this year, which would be a disaster for GOP hopes in the Senate and would leave me laughing about the Tea Party and its influence on the GOP.

West Virginia -- apparently shooting cap and trade is working in coal country as conservative Democrat Manchin vaults back into a narrow lead. This one is still too close to call, but definitely trending blue.

Washington -- this one has seesawed a lot, but appears to be trending red at the moment. Murray is holding on barely, but Dino Rossi is nipping at her heels.

Colorado -- this race seemed almost dead to the Dems but has become close again. Hard not to still have the GOP favored, as Buck has had a lead for months, but if there is a blue surge late, this is one that is ripe for the taking.

Illinois -- this race has consistently stayed close. The GOP was wise to nominate a true moderate in this race in Mark Kirk. It's not 100% over, but this one may be out of reach for the Dems.

Nevada -- will a fringe candidate like Sharron Angle really unseat Harry Reid in purple Nevada? It appears so at the moment. Frankly a case of two horrible candidates and the voters picking the lesser evil. Angle's lead has stabilized and Reid will have to find a bag of tricks late to pull this one out.

Pennsylvania -- Sestak had been surging for about a week but that appears to have abated and Toomey is reestablishing his lead. Funny how the guy who couldn't beat Arlen Specter in a primary may beat the guy who did.

What Happens on November 3rd?
One thing I know is that the Presidential race unofficially starts right after this election. Think I'm jumping the gun? We'll be about 14 months from the first primary. The GOP candidates will need to start lining up donors and support now or they will start to drop off. Expect Palin, Romney, Huckabee, Gingrich and company to start gearing up big time. Also expect a tough ride in Washington with an almost certainly divided government AND a Presidential campaign starting. You think the rhetoric is tough now? You haven't seen anything yet. Of course, my coverage of the 2012 election will begin next week as well, sizing up the electoral map and the GOP field.

I was sent an interesting link from newsy.com, a site that basically aggregates clips from a variety of news sources to show multiple perspectives on a story. It shows a compilation of views on how the President might deal with a soon-to-be-divided government.

The link to the clip is here. It's worth a watch.

Note: As always, I've received no compensation of any form for this link. The folks at newsy sent it to me and I thought you might find it interesting.

More updates over the weekend and, of course, my final projections on Monday night. And, as always, I'll be live-blogging on Tuesday as the results unfold.

Another Note: Some of you have commented on how I have not provided updated graphs on President Obama's approval in quite some time. This has been in order to prioritize content related to the upcoming election. I will provide a full update in a week or so, once we've had a chance to get through the mid-terms and digest the results. For now, suffice it to say that the President's numbers haven't moved a ton...his disapproves still exceed his approves but not by a huge margin.

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8 Days and Counting With No Major Changes, What the Gamblers Say, Poll Selection 101, On Macroeconomics, Just for Fun Predictions

Projection Totals
Senate: 50+ Democratic Caucus (48 Dems, 2 Ind, VP Tie-Breaker), 50 Republicans
House: 231 Republicans, 204 Democrats




Several new polls in the past 72 hours but not a lot of new news to report. My House projection got closer, with generic polling data tightening slightly, leading to a 3 seat swing to the DEMs, but still solidly a projection for GOP control.

In the Senate, only 2 race rating changes and they are both pretty minor and technical. Ohio fell behind my magic (and arbitrary) 20 point threshold again and slips back to a "Likely Hold" versus a "Safe Hold" for the GOP, but at this point, 19 points is pretty much out of reach. Missouri also slips slightly below a threshold, with the current 9.9 point GOP lead moving it back into the "Lean" column versus the "Likely" column, but this is still a long shot for the Dems to flip this seat.

I thought rather than my normal comparison to other major political sites (our friends at electoral-vote.com, electionprojection.com and realclearpolitics.com), I'd take a break and bring back in the gambling money.

For frequent readers, you will know that intrade.com is the website that lets you bet on anything, including politics, in a stock-market style format. Gamblers tend to follow the polls pretty closely and are often pretty good at predicting election outcomes, although, I would argue based on the record of this site over the past 2 years, not nearly as good as a statistical study of poling data.

At any rate, here are intrade's odds on our closest races (all calculated based on the ratio of the contract price of one candidate to another)

California: DEM favored 3:1
Washington: DEM favored 5:2
Alaska: GOP favored 2:1 (vs. all others)
Colorado: GOP favored 3:2
Nevada: GOP favored 2:1
Pennsylvania: GOP favored 3:1
Illinois: GOP Favored 2:1
West Virginia: GOP Favored 4:3
Kentucky: GOP favored 6:1
Wisconsin: GOP favored 6:1

So, the gamblers pick the same winners as our projection, but not necessarily but the same order in terms of odds. I find a few of the odds a little surprising (how can Kentucky have the same odds as Wisconsin?), but generally not that surprising.

Why I Don't Use Partisan Polls
You may notice that in several races, my projections differ pretty significantly from those of other sites. This is partly due to the use of multiple methods of weighting and averaging, versus many sites that simply use a "most recent poll" or a simple average of recent polls. However, one issue that is pretty fundamental is the use of partisan-affiliated polls.

I do not use polls from partisan-affiliated firms such as Public Policy Polling in my averages. My reason is simple...if you are paid by or affiliated with a party or candidate, I cannot presume objectivity in your polling methodology.

In the West Virginia race in particular, there is a Public Policy Polling poll that shows Gov. Manchin leading by a whopping 10 points, whereas non-partisan polls all show him trailing by small margins. Now, it could well prove out that PPP is right and all the other polls are wrong. But PPP is a Democratic-affiliated firm, so I can't trust the sample selection and weighting, especially so close to an election.

Macroeconomic Issues
A fair criticism of my analysis of GDP growth versus parties in power (and one that I owned up to in my long list of caveats on the limits of such an analysis) is the impact of macroeconomic events far beyond the control of government on economic growth.

In that spirit, I'll commit to doing a similar analysis on three statistics that are directly in the control of government: taxes, spending and deficits. Results this weekend.

Some Just for Fun Predictions
None of these will happen (I hope), but just to have some fun in the current political environment, imagine what could happen:
(1) Alvin Greene wins the South Carolina Senate race with 76% of the vote, despite polling 30+ points behind immediately before election day. Greene attributes his wins to grass roots campaigning and then goes on to admit that he doesn't know what grass roots are or what a campaign is. Diebold swears by the unfailing accuracy of its voting machines.

(2) Christine O'Donnell pulls off a surprise upset in Delaware and immediately declares that she is, in fact, a witch and cast a spell on voters entering the booth to vote for her. She commits to making the cause of her life over the next 6 years Witch and Warlock rights.

(3) Marco Rubio wins big in Florida on Tuesday and announces Presidential exploratory committee on Wednesday. Sarah Palin criticizes his lack of experience.

(4) Harry Reid loses to Sharron Angle and declares that he will spend time with family and work on important social issues such as "breaking down barriers for negros".

(5) Rand Paul wins in Kentucky and declares that he really meant all the crazy stuff he said during the campaign (okay, this one probably will happen!)

More updates later in the week.
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Photo Finish in the Senate But Not In The House, NPR's Foolish Decision

It's going to be a crazy finish to a campaign season that has a mere 11 days left in it:




So, at the moment, the projection is an evenly split Senate, with 50 votes caucusing with the Dems and 50 with the GOP, which, given that Joe Biden is constitutionally the President of the Senate, makes for the slimmest of Democratic majorities.

But let's look at how many close races there are:
Let's first grant as a given that any race that has a 20%+ spread at this point is completely out of reach for the other party. Let's also grant that races that have 10-20% spreads are extremely unlikely to shift.

This leaves us 11 races that are within 10 points.
A Democratic sweep of all of those races yields a 1 seat loss for the Dems and a 1 seat Independent pick-up, with a continuation of a 56/41/3 Senate, with a 58-42 working majority for the Dems. Pretty unlikely, it would seem, but not impossible.
A Republican sweep of all of those races yields an 11 seat gain for the GOP or a 52/46/2 GOP majority. Not as unlikely, as you'll see below.

Let's say you think the 5%+ races are out of reach and let's just look at the races that are very close to toss-ups:
A Democratic sweep of those races yields a net gain of 2 for the GOP and a gain of 1 Independent and therefore a 54/43/3 Senate with a 56-44 working majority for the Dems.
A GOP sweep of those races yields a net gain of 11 seats or the same 52/46/2 GOP majority (52-48 working majority) as the 10 point scenario (since there are no races where the Dem is favored by between 5 and 10 points)

So, at this point, I think the likely range of possibilities is that the Democrats will control between 48 and 56 working seats after November, a very large range for so close to the election because of the broad number of races that are exceptionally close.

My Current Projection: 48 D/50 R/2 I (50+D/50R)
realclearpolitics (no toss-ups): 49 D/49 R/2 I (51D/49R)
electoral-vote: 48 D/49 R/ 2 I / 1 Toss-Up (50-51D/49-50R)
electionprojection: 49 D / 49 R / 2 I (51D/49R)

So, all close, but all projecting a Democratic-controlled Senate at this point.

In the House, my current generic polling average of averages has GOP at +8.5%. The range of my averaging methods puts the GOP lead at between 7.4% and 9.0%.

My current projection: 234 Republicans, 201 Democrats
realclearpolitics (splitting toss-ups): 236 Republicans, 199 Democrats
electoral-vote (splitting toss-ups): 218 Republicans, 217 Democrats
electionprojection: 234 Republicans, 201 Democrats

It has always been my theory that generic polling gives a far better view of the macro shift in the House than trying to cobble together the few and far-between polls in individual congressional districts. We'll see if that ultimately proves true, but it is interesting to note how close my projection is to sites that are doing that detailed analysis. Electoral Vote appears to be a Democratic dream scenario. I don't see how they can hold the House, barring a big move in the next week. There is one outlier Newsweek poll that actually shows them with a 3 point lead, but unless it is supported by some other polls, it is just that, an outlier.

Juan Williams Fired for Saying What Many Are Thinking
In case you haven't actually seen the quote that got Juan Williams fired from NPR (from an interview with Bill O'Reilly on Fox News):
"I mean, look, Bill, I'm not a bigot, you know, the kind of books I've written about the Civil Rights Movement and this country. But when I get on a plane, I got to tell you, if I see people who are in Muslim garb and I think, you know, they're identifying themselves first and foremost as Muslims, I get worried. I get nervous."

Let me state the obvious: that it is not right to assume that someone is a terrorist because they dress in Muslim garb. Let me also state what should be another blindingly obvious fact: if you have flown in the past decade and been on a plane with a group of people who were obviously Muslim, you more than likely got at least a little bit nervous. It isn't logical (the overwhelming majority of Muslims aren't terrorists) and it isn't fair (those Muslims didn't do anything to be branded terrorists), but it's also basic human nature. We should fight that nature and not let those feelings influence our actions. But is admitting to those feelings and talking about them really a fireable offense for a network that claims to want to spawn intelligent political dialogue?

NPR has ever right to fire Juan Williams...heck, journalists have been fired for a lot worse reasons than this. But SHOULD they have? Absolutely not.

How can we ever overcome Eric Holder's statement about being "basically, a nation of cowards" on race if we can't even have a dialogue? Holder's words ring more and more true every time I think about them. What a shame that we are a country that doesn't talk about tough issues.

Mid-Week Short Update, Bloopers and Blunders

Brief Election Update
I'm not expecting a lot of big shifts when I do my next full publication of numbers. Polling this week is tracking fairly close to my projection from the weekend:
Most of the close races are holding to form (no big movement from my last post) -- California, Washington, Kentucky, West Virginia and Wisconsin all seem to be holding to form, although California and Washington may be getting a little tighter.

Alaska continues to fascinate, with a new poll showing write-in Murkowski dead even with GOP nominee Joe Miller. Conventional wisdom would still favor a Miller victory, but given the high level of publicity around this one, it's not completely outside the realm of possibility for Murkowski to pull off a second-in-history write-in Senate campaign. For you history buffs, the only successful write-in Senate candidacy was Strom Thurmond in South Carolina in the 1940s, which, a friend of mine from South Carolina likes to point out, proves once and for all that a majority of South Carolinians CAN, in fact, write.

Pennsylvania is suddenly back on my radar, with a couple of new polls showing Joe Sestak with a surprising sudden lead, albeit a very marginal one. This race had looked dead for the Dems until recently. A GOP Senate without a Toomey win is almost unimaginable. The math just doesn't work.

How Can So Many Politicians Be So Dumb?
This year has been an outright gaffe-fest on both sides of the aisle. Some of my favorites:
Democrat Dick Blumenthal in Connecticut claiming he served in Vietnam, when it was an easily verifiable fact that he did not.

Republican Christine O'Donnell not knowing what the First Amendment said was a real hoot. Not knowing with the 14th Amendment was was almost as funny.

Democrat Harry Reid's quote about President Obama "having no negro dialect" would be a riot if it weren't so sad.

Republican Rand Paul's "I support but oppose" the Civil Rights Act of 1964 was the best libertarian dance routine I've seen in a while.

Republican Sharron Angle's support of prohibition is great...especially for a candidate from a state whose entire population is in Reno and Las Vegas.

And that's before you get into the House and look at the candidates that dress up as Nazis. Oh what a year.

17 Days to Go, My Personal Endorsement

Just A Little Over Two Weeks...
Minor changes this week in what is shaping up to be a pick 'em battle for control of the Senate. We probably won't know for sure who will be in the majority and the minority until election night and beyond.




We have new polling this week in virtually every state. What changes there were last week were modestly favorable to the Democrats, with the projected winner changing in one state, flipping the projected operating control of the Senate to 51-49 from 50-50 a week ago.

Rating Changes:
Illinois -- in what continues to be consistently one of the closest races in the nation, new polling flips the race very slightly in the blue direction as the race rating moves to Slight Lean Hold by a margin of just 0.04%.

Connecticut -- could a massive GOP upset from WWE Exec Linda McMahon be brewing? I'm not calling it yet, but the race is definitely tightening as McMahon has gone on air with ads reminding everyone of Richard Blumenthal's shameful lies about Vietnam service. The race is now a Lean Hold.

Washington -- in the back-and-forth race between Patty Murray and Dino Rossi which has usually shown Murray with a lead but by varying margins over the course of the past two weeks, Murray pulls out to a slightly larger lead. Lean Hold.

Alaska -- at last some new polls in the weirdest race in the nation. Joe Miller still leads but incumbent Republican and longtime Sarah Palin adversary Lisa Murkowski is closing in via write-in (although I continue to wonder if all those poll respondents will actually take the time to write her name in.) Murkowski intends to continue caucusing with the GOP, so this battle is GOP vs. Independent in a technical sense only. Slight Lean Miller, for now.

North Carolina -- I'm not sure the Democrats ever really had a chance at this one except in the very early going. It's tightened just a little and moves down to a Likely Hold, but I'd frankly be shocked if the Democrats found a way to pull this one out.

Ohio -- this once toss-up race is not completely out of the Democrats' reach. Safe Hold.

My Projection: 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, 2 Independents
Realclearpolitics (no toss-ups): 50 Democrats, 48 Republicans, 2 Independents
Electionprojection: 48 Democrats, 50 Republicans, 2 Independents
Electoral-Vote: 49 Democrats, 48 Republicans, 2 Independents, 1 Tie

So, this week, we are all still calling for a Democratic operating control of the Senate but by varying margins...from 50 to 52 voting seats.

In the House, our average of averages stands at GOP +7.9%.

My Projection: 202 Democrats, 233 Republicans
Realclearpolitics (splitting toss-ups): 204 Democrats, 231 Republicans
Electionprojection: 203 Democrats, 232 Republicans
Electoral-Vote (splitting toss-ups): 217 Democrats, 218 Republicans

Electoral-Vote has the House very close (although still a GOP control pick-up), whereas the rest of us have the Republicans winning by a fairly substantial margin. I'm marginally predicting the largest Republican majority, although I don't pretend to have less than a 1 seat margin of error.

Jon Runyan for the House
I don't pretend that anyone should particularly care how I vote. I urge everyone to educate themselves about the issues and vote the way that they believe is right. I do, however, always share my personal plan a couple of weeks before the election and share my reasoning, in the hope that my thought process might shed some light on your individual quest for the truth.

For those who have started reading this space recently, they will know that I'm a registered Democrat with a strong Independent streak. I voted for Democrats in the last 3 Presidential elections, but did not support Clinton in 1996. In my moves across the country, I've voted for 2 Republican Senators (John Warner in Virginia and then-Republican Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania.) I voted Independent in this past years Governors race, although based on Chris Christie's performance so far, I frankly wish I had voted Republican.

I live in New Jersey's third congressional district, a classic swing district in the suburbs of Philadelphia. Incumbent first term congressman John Adler (D) is a moderate with blue dog fiscal tendencies (he voted for the stimulus but against the health care bill.) Former Eagle lineman Jon Runyan is a committed conservative on both fiscal and social issues.

My decision is based on both macro and micro circumstances.

On a macro level, my view is that the single greatest threat to our country in our massive and growing federal debt. Neither party has presented a credible solution. Democrats seem content to spend away, not touch entitlements and continue to spend heavily on the military in Afghanistan. They are proposing new infrastructure spending and want to extend 75% of the cost of the Bush tax cuts, by extending them for everyone making less than $250,000.

Republicans are no better. No entitlement reform. Higher military spending if anything. 100% of the Bush tax cuts. Empty statements about "cutting waste" ignoring the fact that it is mathematically impossible to balance the budget, maintain entitlements, cut taxes and strength the military at the same time.

My only hope for progress is, frankly, gridlock. A Republican congress unwilling to pass spending bills to a Democratic President. It's not a fool-proof plan for sure, but it worked pretty well in the 1990s.

At the local level, John Adler has run a scummy campaign. His campaign planted a fake "tea-party" candidate on the ballot to attempt to siphon off votes from Runyan. He has run misleading ads about property tax breaks Runyan's family received. He hasn't talked about the issues much and when he has he's sounded like he has no backbone.

Runyan and the Republicans turn my stomach in a lot of ways. Their backwards views on gay rights, immigration and a host of other social issues frankly make me pretty sick. I wasn't sure until very recently what I was going to do in this election, precisely because of those issues. A friend of mine made a point to me that made the decision very clear. He simply said:
"All the social issues you care about don't matter if the country isn't here 50 years from now."

Managing the deficit is a matter of survival for our country, and no, I don't think that is overly dramatic. Our best shot for forcing our government officials to deal with the deficit is a divided government.

Reluctantly, Jon Runyan for Congress.

Is Biden Vote #51? GOP Sweep, Split Power or Narrow Dem Majorities -- Why We Still Don't Know, The Spineless and Irresponsible Majority

25 days until election day 2010 and majority control of both Houses of congress is very much still in doubt. The Senate, especially, will likely be controlled by one party or the other by a razor-thin margin. Here are my latest projections:




Every close race had a new poll this week except for Alaska and Wisconsin. In Wisconsin, Russ Feingold has been steadily losing ground, and I suspect that when we find a new poll, he will be in the same or a slightly worse spot than he is in our current projection. The maverick from Wisconsin is in real trouble.

In Alaska, I'm dying to see a poll in the fascinating, confusing and dynamic face-off between Tea-Party Republican Joe Miller and Republican Turned Write-in Independent Incumbent Lisa Murkowski. This will be a very tough race to project, because of the unusual dynamics.

Key Rating Moves This Week:
Maryland -- Barbara Mikulski is safe. The Maryland race is on no one's radar. A new Washington Post poll officially puts her average in the safe category.

Connecticut -- embattled state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal resolidifies his once large lead slightly. The race is now a Likely Hold for the Dems.

California -- Barbara Boxer had been pulling away from ex-CEO Carly Fiorina in the past few weeks, but the race has tightened again in the past week and is now only a Slight Lean Hold for Boxer.

Nevada -- a continued close race (in fact, it was within 0.01% last week) moves slightly to the right in the polling, with Tea Partier Sharron Angle pulling out to a 2 point lead. The race now rates a Slight Lean Pick-Up for the GOP.

West Virginia -- this one started with a big Dem lead for incumbent Gub Manchin, but has moved steadily to the right in a state where the President and the Dems in power nationally are highly unpopular. It now rates a Lean Pick-Up for the GOP.

New Hampshire -- mainstream Republican Kelly Ayotte has appeared for months to be running away with this race, but it has started to tighten in the late stages. This race now rates only a Lean Hold for the GOP.

Missouri -- this one appears to be rapidly becoming a lost cause for the Dems. Bellweather states ring for the party in the lead and the GOP is winning the campaign so far. Likely GOP Hold.

Arizona -- same story as Maryland, but for the other party. John McCain is not going to lose, unless he suddenly breaks back out his "the fundamentals of the economy are strong" line. Safe GOP Hold.

My Projection: Democrats 48, Republicans 50, Independents 2 (Democrats retain control with Biden's tie-breaking vote, barring any defections)
realclearpolitics (no toss-ups): Democrats 48, Republicans 50, Independents 2
electoral-vote: Republicans 50, Democrats 47, Independents 2, 1 Tie
electionprojection: Democrats 48, Republicans 50, Independents 2

So, we are all basically on the same page, for the second week in a row.

In the House,
My average of generic polling surges to the right, with the GOP showing at +7.2% now. The biggest driver is the latest Gallup polling, which contained a lot of refinement to their projections. In fact, Gallup has 2 likely voter models that they are using, one for a low turnout election and one for a high turnout election. Since those polls rely on the same sample and Gallup is not advising which model they believe, I am weighting both models at 50% of a normal poll. The Gallup polls show the best numbers for the GOP with GOP +13% in the high turnout scenario and GOP +18% in the low turnout scenario. If Gallup is right, the House will be a blow-out. I'm not quite showing that yet in my averages.

My Projection: 232 Republicans, 203 Democrats
realclearpolitics (splitting toss-ups): 229 Republicans, 206 Democrats
electoral-vote (splitting toss-ups): 219 Democrats, 216 Republicans
electionprojection: 222 Republicans, 213 Democrats

So, on the House, the projections are all over the map. Basically, my projection and realclearpolitics show a big gain for the GOP (although not quite an outright blowout), electionprojection has a narrow GOP victory and electoral-vote has the DEMs retaining the House. Obviously, the House is harder to project than the Senate.

Bottom line, we still don't really know which party will control either House come next year.

Budgets Matter
I've been heavy on the polls and light on the political commentary as of late, as I typically do as we close in on an election, but I would be remiss if I didn't say shame on the Democrats for adjourning Congress with no budget outline and no appropriations bills passed. A kick the can down the road continuing resolution is all that Congress could muster. No debate on tax policy or spending priorities. Uncertainty for both governmental agencies as to what their budget will be and businesses and individuals.

Responsibility number one for congress is to manage budgets and taxation. On this fundamental test, Pelosi and Reid and company have showed themselves to be spineless, unwilling to even have a debate or declare positions going into an election. Are they even trying to win back the hearts and minds of the American people?