Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Orderly Election So Far, Only Minor Problems, Obama Surging in Late National Polls

Polls are now open in 36 states plus the District of Columbia.

Only minor issues have been reported so far, the most serious being voting machines in Virginia breaking down. From the reports, paper ballots are being issues in precincts where a majority of machines are breaking down, in accordance with state law. It appears Virginia is doing what it is supposed to be doing and hopefully none of this will have an impact on the race.

Polls released so far today show a surge in support for Obama from yesterday.
Marist -- Obama +9% (unchanged from yesterday)
Zogby -- Obama +11% (Obama +4% since yesterday)
IBD/TIPP* -- Obama +8% (Obama +3% since yesterday)

* This is the "most accurate" poll often cited by the media for 2004 that Republicans had been hanging their bets on as it HAD consistently showed the race closer than other national polls.

Obama is at 52-54% in all the polls, McCain is at 43-44% in all the polls.

Could it be that undecideds are actually breaking disproportionately for Obama?

This could put some of the states that I projected in the red column in play -- I'm specifically thinking about Missouri, Indiana and Georgia.

Latest state polls released today show Obama up by 2% in Ohio, up by 9-10% in Pennsylvania, up by 1-3% in Florida, up by 4-7% in Virginia and tied in Missouri and North Carolina (one poll has Obama up by 1%, one poll has McCain up by 1%.) McCain still leads in Indiana (5%) and West Virginia (11%).

I feel good about my projection yesterday when I said Missuori and North Carolina were true toss-ups (I ultimately have Obama winning North Carolina and McCain winning Missouri), Indiana and West Virginia in the McCain column, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and Virginia in the Obama column.

No comments: