Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Betting Odds on the Move

Movements in the betting odds can reveal interesting information about a race on the day of an election. They are not always accurate -- John Kerry's odds spiked in 2004 after Matt Drudge leaked early and ultimately incorrect exit polling results that showed him way ahead, but they are one of the many tea leaves we can read until we start getting the actual vote counts.

Here is the latest on each race:
New Jersey -- since this morning, Jon Corzine has jumped from a 1.1:1 underdog to almost a 1.4:1 favorite. Clearly the late money is betting on Corzine. Is this just long-time watchers predicting another late left turn in New Jersey or do they know something?

Virginia -- steady as she goes. Bob McDonnell is still a 110:1 favorite.

New York-23 -- Hoffman (or, to be precise, anyone other than Owens) is up to a 9:1 favorite (from 2.3:1 yesterday). The late money is going to the conservative insurrection in this fascinating race.

New York Mayor -- Michael Bloomberg is still predicted to be very safe -- 24:1 favorite with no movement in the odds today.

65 minutes until the polls close.

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