Tuesday, November 3, 2009

What Did We Miss?

My projections in both the Virginia and New Jersey Governor's races, while I picked the right candidates, both seem to have been off by somewhere from 3 to 5%, both in the same direction (too favorable to the Democratic candidate.) I think the reasons may wind up being very different...in New Jersey it appears at first blush that a last-second Daggett fall-off (as I alluded to in my first post today) may have broken Christie's way. In Virginia, I don't know if low turn-out or faulty polling models caused the error, but it is worth assessing.

Being off by 3 to 5% is a big deal, when you consider that President Obama won pretty widely and that was only a little over a 7% margin.

Lots of data to pour over.

But for now, we've got some races still to watch.

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