In 2005, Jon Corzine won 55% of the two-party vote. Since he needs 50.1% of the two party vote, we'll focus on the counties where he won close to 55% of the vote 4 years ago to look at the counties that will likely tip the balance this time.
In 2005, Corzine handily won the following counties(with at least 60% of the vote):
These counties will be interesting only in the MARGIN of victory as he is likely to carry them all again.
In 2005, he LOST the following counties:
He will almost certainly lose these again.
Which leaves us with the swing counties and Corzine's %'s from 2005:
Salem -- 51%
Burlington -- 53%
Atlantic -- 55%
Gloucester -- 55%
Bergen -- 57%
Middlesex -- 59%
Mercer -- 59%
Cumerland -- 59%
Mostly South Jersey counties are the swing counties. Of these counties, Burlington, Middlesex and Bergen are the big ones, together representing over 25% of the votes cast in 2005. Pretty much, whoever wins the three counties will win the election. I'll be analyzing the returns through this filter -- who is winning the key swing counties?
I would do a similar analysis in Virginia if I thought it mattered. Hampton Roads is usually the key to Virginia in close races, but let's face it, Virginia is not looking close this year.
Stay tuned -- 48 minutes until we start counting votes.