Tuesday, November 3, 2009

McDonnell's Margin Looks to Be Bigger Than Predicted

Maybe Democrats, virtually assured of a loss, stayed home. Maybe the polls undersampled Republicans and Independents. Either way, it looks like Bob McDonnell is headed to a more sizeable victory than the 13-14% that most, including myself had been predicting, possibly winning by 17%, 18% or even 19%. Not an error of massive proportions, but one that I will certainly have to analyze and try to understand next week.

Early returns in NY-23 look surprisingly favorable to Owens..but it is early, so I'm not drawing any conclusions.

Christie continues to lead with more and more votes counted in New Jersey. If Corzine is going to close, he'll need to start soon. He would need to win the remaining votes to be counted by about 16% to pull this one off.

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